Empire State Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| ESBA Stock | USD 6.27 0.02 0.32% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Empire State Realty on the next trading day is expected to be 6.39 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16 and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.02. Empire Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Empire State stock prices and determine the direction of Empire State Realty's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Empire State's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At this time, the relative strength index (RSI) of Empire State's share price is approaching 44 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Empire State, making its price go up or down. Momentum 44
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.41) | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.015 |
Using Empire State hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Empire State Realty from the perspective of Empire State response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Empire State Realty on the next trading day is expected to be 6.39 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16 and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.02. Empire State after-hype prediction price | USD 6.27 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Empire State to cross-verify your projections. Empire State Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Empire price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Empire using various technical indicators. When you analyze Empire charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Empire State Cash Forecast
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Empire State's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 2010-12-31 | Previous Quarter 94.6 M | Current Value 154.1 M | Quarterly Volatility 226 M |
Empire State Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Empire State Realty on the next trading day is expected to be 6.39 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16, mean absolute percentage error of 0.04, and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.02.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Empire Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Empire State's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Empire State Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Empire State | Empire State Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Empire State Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Empire State's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Empire State's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 2.66 and 10.12, respectively. We have considered Empire State's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Empire State stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Empire State stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.8252 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1617 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.024 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 10.0245 |
Predictive Modules for Empire State
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Empire State Realty. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Empire State After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Empire State at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Empire State or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Empire State, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Empire State Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Empire State's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Empire State's historical news coverage. Empire State's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 2.55 and 9.99, respectively. We have considered Empire State's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Empire State is moderately volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Empire State Realty is based on 3 months time horizon.
Empire State Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Empire State is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Empire State backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Empire State, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.25 | 3.73 | 0.02 | 0.06 | 16 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 16 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
6.27 | 6.27 | 0.00 |
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Empire State Hype Timeline
Empire State Realty is currently traded for 6.27. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.06. Empire is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.25%. %. The volatility of related hype on Empire State is about 1547.72%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 6.33. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.96. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Empire State Realty has Price/Earnings (P/E) ratio of 158.4. The entity last dividend was issued on the 15th of December 2025. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 16 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Empire State to cross-verify your projections.Empire State Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Empire State's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Empire State's future price movements. Getting to know how Empire State's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Empire State may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CXW | CoreCivic | (0.1) | 23 per month | 2.41 | 0.04 | 2.99 | (3.31) | 11.65 | |
| EPR | EPR Properties | 0.81 | 4 per month | 1.49 | (0.04) | 1.90 | (1.60) | 7.62 | |
| ADC | Agree Realty | 0.98 | 17 per month | 0.00 | (0.19) | 1.23 | (1.37) | 3.42 | |
| DX | Dynex Capital | (0.10) | 8 per month | 0.51 | 0.10 | 1.89 | (1.08) | 3.57 | |
| DEI | Douglas Emmett | 0.81 | 26 per month | 0.00 | (0.24) | 2.57 | (2.88) | 7.29 | |
| FBRT | Franklin BSP Realty | 0.07 | 6 per month | 1.15 | (0.08) | 2.09 | (1.56) | 5.63 | |
| ARR | ARMOUR Residential REIT | (0.10) | 4 per month | 0.89 | 0.17 | 2.17 | (1.61) | 6.26 | |
| IVT | Inventrust Properties Corp | (0.10) | 4 per month | 0.90 | (0.03) | 1.79 | (1.28) | 4.65 | |
| GNL | Global Net Lease | 0.11 | 8 per month | 0.78 | 0.18 | 2.49 | (1.68) | 8.05 | |
| DRH | Diamondrock Hospitality | 0.03 | 10 per month | 1.05 | 0.14 | 3.33 | (2.49) | 11.87 |
Other Forecasting Options for Empire State
For every potential investor in Empire, whether a beginner or expert, Empire State's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Empire Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Empire. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Empire State's price trends.Empire State Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Empire State stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Empire State could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Empire State by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Empire State Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Empire State stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Empire State shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Empire State stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Empire State Realty entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Empire State Risk Indicators
The analysis of Empire State's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Empire State's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting empire stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.82 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.79 | |||
| Variance | 14.34 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Empire State
The number of cover stories for Empire State depends on current market conditions and Empire State's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Empire State is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Empire State's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Empire State Short Properties
Empire State's future price predictability will typically decrease when Empire State's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Empire State Realty often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Empire State's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Empire State's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 269 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 385.5 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Empire State to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Transaction History module to view history of all your transactions and understand their impact on performance.
Is Diversified REITs space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Empire State. If investors know Empire will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Empire State listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.41) | Dividend Share 0.14 | Earnings Share 0.2 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.015 |
The market value of Empire State Realty is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Empire that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Empire State's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Empire State's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Empire State's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Empire State's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Empire State's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Empire State is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Empire State's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.