ESSA Bancorp Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

ESSADelisted Stock  USD 640.00  5.00  0.79%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of ESSA Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 762.68 with a mean absolute deviation of 103.78 and the sum of the absolute errors of 6,330. ESSA Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast ESSA Bancorp stock prices and determine the direction of ESSA Bancorp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of ESSA Bancorp's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At this time, The value of RSI of ESSA Bancorp's share price is at 54 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling ESSA Bancorp, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 54

 Impartial

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of ESSA Bancorp's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with ESSA Bancorp, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using ESSA Bancorp hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of ESSA Bancorp from the perspective of ESSA Bancorp response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of ESSA Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 762.68 with a mean absolute deviation of 103.78 and the sum of the absolute errors of 6,330.

ESSA Bancorp after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 640.0  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as delisted stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Investing Opportunities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in real.

ESSA Bancorp Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine ESSA price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for ESSA using various technical indicators. When you analyze ESSA charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
A naive forecasting model for ESSA Bancorp is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of ESSA Bancorp value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

ESSA Bancorp Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 6th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of ESSA Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 762.68 with a mean absolute deviation of 103.78, mean absolute percentage error of 28,133, and the sum of the absolute errors of 6,330.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict ESSA Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that ESSA Bancorp's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

ESSA Bancorp Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest ESSA BancorpESSA Bancorp Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of ESSA Bancorp stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent ESSA Bancorp stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria128.3552
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation103.7781
MAPEMean absolute percentage error2.5823
SAESum of the absolute errors6330.4655
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of ESSA Bancorp. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict ESSA Bancorp. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for ESSA Bancorp

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ESSA Bancorp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of ESSA Bancorp's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
640.00640.00640.00
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
425.68425.68704.00
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
633.62638.33643.05
Details

ESSA Bancorp Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with ESSA Bancorp stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of ESSA Bancorp could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing ESSA Bancorp by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

ESSA Bancorp Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how ESSA Bancorp stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading ESSA Bancorp shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying ESSA Bancorp stock market strength indicators, traders can identify ESSA Bancorp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.
Check out Investing Opportunities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in real.
You can also try the Portfolio Volatility module to check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk.

Other Consideration for investing in ESSA Stock

If you are still planning to invest in ESSA Bancorp check if it may still be traded through OTC markets such as Pink Sheets or OTC Bulletin Board. You may also purchase it directly from the company, but this is not always possible and may require contacting the company directly. Please note that delisted stocks are often considered to be more risky investments, as they are no longer subject to the same regulatory and reporting requirements as listed stocks. Therefore, it is essential to carefully research the ESSA Bancorp's history and understand the potential risks before investing.
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