Essa Bancorp Stock Price Prediction
| ESSA Stock | USD 20.30 0.15 0.74% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
55
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.06) | Wall Street Target Price 19 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.04) |
Using ESSA Bancorp hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of ESSA Bancorp from the perspective of ESSA Bancorp response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in ESSA Bancorp to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying ESSA because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
ESSA Bancorp after-hype prediction price | USD 20.14 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
ESSA |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of ESSA Bancorp's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
ESSA Bancorp After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of ESSA Bancorp at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in ESSA Bancorp or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of ESSA Bancorp, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
ESSA Bancorp Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting ESSA Bancorp's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on ESSA Bancorp's historical news coverage. ESSA Bancorp's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 17.81 and 22.47, respectively. We have considered ESSA Bancorp's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
ESSA Bancorp is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of ESSA Bancorp is based on 3 months time horizon.
ESSA Bancorp Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as ESSA Bancorp is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading ESSA Bancorp backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with ESSA Bancorp, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.25 | 2.33 | 0.16 | 0.03 | 10 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
20.30 | 20.14 | 0.79 |
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ESSA Bancorp Hype Timeline
ESSA Bancorp is currently traded for 20.30. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.16, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.03. ESSA is projected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 20.14. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.79%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.25%. The volatility of related hype on ESSA Bancorp is about 1772.83%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 20.27. About 15.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.89. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. ESSA Bancorp last dividend was issued on the 16th of December 2024. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 10 days. Check out ESSA Bancorp Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.ESSA Bancorp Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to ESSA Bancorp's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict ESSA Bancorp's future price movements. Getting to know how ESSA Bancorp's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how ESSA Bancorp may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| FITB | Fifth Third Bancorp | (0.05) | 10 per month | 0.97 | 0.08 | 2.39 | (2.01) | 10.60 | |
| ZION | Zions Bancorporation | 0.59 | 11 per month | 1.49 | 0.10 | 3.62 | (2.89) | 20.65 | |
| HBAN | Huntington Bancshares Incorporated | 0.04 | 7 per month | 0.85 | 0.12 | 2.87 | (2.28) | 14.20 | |
| PNC | PNC Financial Services | (0.80) | 9 per month | 0.87 | 0.10 | 2.54 | (1.97) | 9.52 | |
| CMA | Comerica | (0.22) | 11 per month | 1.36 | 0.14 | 3.53 | (2.64) | 14.10 | |
| MTB | MT Bank | 0.93 | 9 per month | 0.83 | 0.16 | 3.41 | (1.59) | 16.03 | |
| WAL | Western Alliance Bancorporation | (1.41) | 11 per month | 2.13 | 0.07 | 4.19 | (3.17) | 19.53 |
ESSA Bancorp Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine ESSA price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for ESSA using various technical indicators. When you analyze ESSA charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About ESSA Bancorp Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of ESSA Bancorp stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as ESSA Bancorp, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of ESSA Bancorp based on analysis of ESSA Bancorp hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to ESSA Bancorp's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to ESSA Bancorp's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | PTB Ratio | 0.89 | 0.66 | 0.8 | 4.71 | Price To Sales Ratio | 2.77 | 2.11 | 1.64 | 45.44 |
Story Coverage note for ESSA Bancorp
The number of cover stories for ESSA Bancorp depends on current market conditions and ESSA Bancorp's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that ESSA Bancorp is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about ESSA Bancorp's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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ESSA Bancorp Short Properties
ESSA Bancorp's future price predictability will typically decrease when ESSA Bancorp's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of ESSA Bancorp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential ESSA Bancorp's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. ESSA Bancorp's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 9.5 M | |
| Dividends Paid | 5.9 M | |
| Forward Annual Dividend Rate | 0.6 | |
| Shares Float | 6.7 M |
Complementary Tools for ESSA Stock analysis
When running ESSA Bancorp's price analysis, check to measure ESSA Bancorp's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy ESSA Bancorp is operating at the current time. Most of ESSA Bancorp's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of ESSA Bancorp's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move ESSA Bancorp's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of ESSA Bancorp to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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