Eagle Materials Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| EXP Stock | USD 226.27 1.15 0.51% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Eagle Materials on the next trading day is expected to be 227.04 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.69 and the sum of the absolute errors of 285.98. Eagle Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Eagle Materials' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Eagle Materials' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Eagle Materials fundamentals over time.
As of today, The relative strength index (RSI) of Eagle Materials' share price is at 50 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Eagle Materials, making its price go up or down. Momentum 50
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.01) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 3.6455 | EPS Estimate Current Year 13.4238 | EPS Estimate Next Year 14.0234 | Wall Street Target Price 236.8 |
Using Eagle Materials hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Eagle Materials from the perspective of Eagle Materials response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Eagle Materials using Eagle Materials' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Eagle using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Eagle Materials' stock price.
Eagle Materials Short Interest
An investor who is long Eagle Materials may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Eagle Materials and may potentially protect profits, hedge Eagle Materials with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 221.1988 | Short Percent 0.0557 | Short Ratio 3.21 | Shares Short Prior Month 1.2 M | 50 Day MA 217.0664 |
Eagle Materials Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Eagle Materials' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Eagle. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Eagle can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Eagle Materials. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Eagle Materials Implied Volatility | 0.35 |
Eagle Materials' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Eagle Materials stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Eagle Materials' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Eagle Materials stock will not fluctuate a lot when Eagle Materials' options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Eagle Materials on the next trading day is expected to be 227.04 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.69 and the sum of the absolute errors of 285.98. Eagle Materials after-hype prediction price | USD 226.27 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Eagle Materials to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Eagle contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Eagle Materials will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0219% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Eagle Materials trading at USD 226.27, that is roughly USD 0.0495 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Eagle Materials' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Eagle Materials options at the current volatility level of 0.35%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Eagle Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Eagle Materials' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Eagle Materials' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Eagle Materials stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Eagle Materials' open interest, investors have to compare it to Eagle Materials' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Eagle Materials is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Eagle. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Eagle Materials Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Eagle price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Eagle using various technical indicators. When you analyze Eagle charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Eagle Materials Cash Forecast
Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the Eagle Materials' financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
Cash | First Reported 1994-03-31 | Previous Quarter 59.7 M | Current Value 35 M | Quarterly Volatility 50.7 M |
Eagle Materials Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Eagle Materials on the next trading day is expected to be 227.04 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.69, mean absolute percentage error of 32.47, and the sum of the absolute errors of 285.98.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Eagle Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Eagle Materials' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Eagle Materials Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Eagle Materials | Eagle Materials Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Eagle Materials Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Eagle Materials' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Eagle Materials' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 224.83 and 229.25, respectively. We have considered Eagle Materials' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Eagle Materials stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Eagle Materials stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 121.5907 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 4.6882 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0215 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 285.9823 |
Predictive Modules for Eagle Materials
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Eagle Materials. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Eagle Materials' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Eagle Materials After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Eagle Materials at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Eagle Materials or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Eagle Materials, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Eagle Materials Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Eagle Materials' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Eagle Materials' historical news coverage. Eagle Materials' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 224.08 and 228.46, respectively. We have considered Eagle Materials' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Eagle Materials is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Eagle Materials is based on 3 months time horizon.
Eagle Materials Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Eagle Materials is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Eagle Materials backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Eagle Materials, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.03 | 2.21 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 10 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
226.27 | 226.27 | 0.00 |
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Eagle Materials Hype Timeline
On the 23rd of January Eagle Materials is traded for 226.27. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.05. Eagle is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.03%. %. The volatility of related hype on Eagle Materials is about 146.94%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 226.22. About 99.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The book value of Eagle Materials was currently reported as 47.73. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.51. Eagle Materials recorded earning per share (EPS) of 13.57. The entity last dividend was issued on the 15th of December 2025. The firm had 3:1 split on the 27th of February 2006. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Eagle Materials to cross-verify your projections.Eagle Materials Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Eagle Materials' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Eagle Materials' future price movements. Getting to know how Eagle Materials' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Eagle Materials may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| GGB | Gerdau SA ADR | (0.04) | 6 per month | 1.47 | 0.19 | 2.87 | (2.40) | 11.29 | |
| EMN | Eastman Chemical | 0.15 | 8 per month | 1.83 | 0.05 | 4.94 | (3.60) | 9.74 | |
| TX | Ternium SA ADR | (0.01) | 10 per month | 1.21 | 0.15 | 3.07 | (1.55) | 8.99 | |
| NEU | NewMarket | (14.63) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.20) | 2.25 | (2.91) | 11.14 | |
| IAG | IAMGold | 0.15 | 3 per month | 2.99 | 0.15 | 5.49 | (4.94) | 18.37 | |
| ESI | Element Solutions | (0.13) | 10 per month | 1.76 | 0.05 | 3.96 | (3.60) | 10.60 | |
| AXTA | Axalta Coating Systems | (0.03) | 12 per month | 1.18 | 0.11 | 2.69 | (2.56) | 7.97 | |
| HBM | Hudbay Minerals | (0.55) | 9 per month | 2.52 | 0.17 | 5.44 | (5.81) | 12.33 | |
| LPX | Louisiana Pacific | (0.10) | 10 per month | 2.41 | (0.01) | 4.15 | (2.57) | 11.95 | |
| CMC | Commercial Metals | 0.15 | 9 per month | 1.23 | 0.19 | 3.71 | (2.96) | 9.61 |
Other Forecasting Options for Eagle Materials
For every potential investor in Eagle, whether a beginner or expert, Eagle Materials' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Eagle Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Eagle. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Eagle Materials' price trends.Eagle Materials Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Eagle Materials stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Eagle Materials could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Eagle Materials by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Eagle Materials Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Eagle Materials stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Eagle Materials shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Eagle Materials stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Eagle Materials entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Eagle Materials Risk Indicators
The analysis of Eagle Materials' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Eagle Materials' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting eagle stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.46 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.13 | |||
| Variance | 4.56 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Eagle Materials
The number of cover stories for Eagle Materials depends on current market conditions and Eagle Materials' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Eagle Materials is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Eagle Materials' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Eagle Materials Short Properties
Eagle Materials' future price predictability will typically decrease when Eagle Materials' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Eagle Materials often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Eagle Materials' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Eagle Materials' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 33.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 20.4 M |
Additional Tools for Eagle Stock Analysis
When running Eagle Materials' price analysis, check to measure Eagle Materials' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Eagle Materials is operating at the current time. Most of Eagle Materials' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Eagle Materials' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Eagle Materials' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Eagle Materials to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.