Ford Preferred Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| F-PC Preferred Stock | USD 21.80 0.02 0.09% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Ford Motor on the next trading day is expected to be 21.93 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.1 and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.15. Ford Preferred Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Ford stock prices and determine the direction of Ford Motor's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Ford's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time the value of rsi of Ford's share price is below 20 . This usually indicates that the preferred stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Ford hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Ford Motor from the perspective of Ford response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Ford Motor on the next trading day is expected to be 21.93 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.1 and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.15. Ford after-hype prediction price | USD 21.8 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as preferred stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Ford |
Ford Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Ford price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Ford using various technical indicators. When you analyze Ford charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
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| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Ford Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 25th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Ford Motor on the next trading day is expected to be 21.93 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.1, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.15.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Ford Preferred Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Ford's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Ford Preferred Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Ford | Ford Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Ford Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Ford's Preferred Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Ford's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 21.29 and 22.57, respectively. We have considered Ford's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Ford preferred stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Ford preferred stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.8121 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0992 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0047 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 6.1528 |
Predictive Modules for Ford
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ford Motor. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the preferred stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the preferred stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Ford After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Ford at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Ford or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Preferred Stock prices, such as prices of Ford, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Ford Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Ford's preferred stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Ford's historical news coverage. Ford's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 21.16 and 22.44, respectively. We have considered Ford's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Ford is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Ford Motor is based on 3 months time horizon.
Ford Preferred Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Ford is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Ford backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Preferred Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Ford, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.03 | 0.64 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 33 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 33 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
21.80 | 21.80 | 0.00 |
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Ford Hype Timeline
Ford Motor is currently traded for 21.80. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.01. Ford is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.03%. %. The volatility of related hype on Ford is about 188.24%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 21.79. The company last dividend was issued on the 1st of March 2023. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 33 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ford to cross-verify your projections.Ford Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Ford's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Ford's future price movements. Getting to know how Ford's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Ford may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CPRT | Copart Inc | (0.16) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 2.22 | (3.52) | 6.88 | |
| FLUT | Flutter Entertainment plc | (8.65) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.22) | 3.01 | (3.89) | 17.33 | |
| GM | General Motors | (0.89) | 4 per month | 1.05 | 0.18 | 4.01 | (2.41) | 18.60 | |
| TCOM | Trip Group Ltd | (0.25) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 2.70 | (3.34) | 21.80 | |
| JD | JD Inc Adr | (0.20) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 2.89 | (2.77) | 7.60 | |
| EBAY | eBay Inc | (0.16) | 2 per month | 3.45 | (0.03) | 2.63 | (3.16) | 17.64 | |
| DHI | DR Horton | 0.75 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 4.73 | (3.36) | 10.93 | |
| YUM | Yum Brands | 3.90 | 9 per month | 1.13 | (0.01) | 2.49 | (1.79) | 11.71 | |
| STLA | Stellantis NV | (0.16) | 20 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 4.66 | (4.19) | 13.57 | |
| ROST | Ross Stores | 2.42 | 10 per month | 0.54 | 0.15 | 2.16 | (1.23) | 11.17 |
Other Forecasting Options for Ford
For every potential investor in Ford, whether a beginner or expert, Ford's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Ford Preferred Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Ford. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Ford's price trends.Ford Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Ford preferred stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Ford could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Ford by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Ford Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Ford preferred stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Ford shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Ford preferred stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Ford Motor entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 585.99 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.0625 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 21.68 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 21.72 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.13 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.02 |
Ford Risk Indicators
The analysis of Ford's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Ford's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ford preferred stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.5179 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.6268 | |||
| Variance | 0.3929 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Ford
The number of cover stories for Ford depends on current market conditions and Ford's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Ford is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Ford's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Ford Short Properties
Ford's future price predictability will typically decrease when Ford's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Ford Motor often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Ford's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Ford's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 4 B | |
| Dividends Paid | -2 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 44.1 B |
Other Information on Investing in Ford Preferred Stock
Ford financial ratios help investors to determine whether Ford Preferred Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Ford with respect to the benefits of owning Ford security.