Trip Group Ltd Stock Price Prediction
| TCOM Stock | USD 63.64 1.53 2.35% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
58
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 4.926 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 4.3343 | EPS Estimate Current Year 26.2565 | EPS Estimate Next Year 27.9284 | Wall Street Target Price 544.9433 |
Using Trip Group hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Trip Group Ltd from the perspective of Trip Group response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Trip Group to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Trip because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Trip Group after-hype prediction price | USD 63.9 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Trip |
Trip Group After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Trip Group at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Trip Group or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Trip Group, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Trip Group Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Trip Group's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Trip Group's historical news coverage. Trip Group's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 60.27 and 67.53, respectively. We have considered Trip Group's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Trip Group is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Trip Group is based on 3 months time horizon.
Trip Group Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Trip Group is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Trip Group backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Trip Group, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.57 | 3.51 | 0.22 | 0.54 | 10 Events / Month | 9 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
63.64 | 63.90 | 0.41 |
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Trip Group Hype Timeline
Trip Group is at this time traded for 63.64. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.22, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.54. Trip is estimated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 63.9 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price boost on the next news is projected to be 0.41%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.57%. The volatility of related hype on Trip Group is about 368.92%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 63.10. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 44.51 B. Net Income was 10 B with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 15.53 B. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next estimated press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Trip Group Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Trip Group Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Trip Group's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Trip Group's future price movements. Getting to know how Trip Group's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Trip Group may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Trip Group Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Trip price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Trip using various technical indicators. When you analyze Trip charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
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| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Trip Group Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Trip Group stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Trip Group Ltd, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Trip Group based on analysis of Trip Group hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Trip Group's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Trip Group's related companies. | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.001536 | 7.71E-4 | Price To Sales Ratio | 3.83 | 3.64 |
Story Coverage note for Trip Group
The number of cover stories for Trip Group depends on current market conditions and Trip Group's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Trip Group is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Trip Group's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Trip Group Short Properties
Trip Group's future price predictability will typically decrease when Trip Group's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Trip Group Ltd often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Trip Group's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Trip Group's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 671.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 59.3 B |
Check out Trip Group Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Performance Analysis module to check effects of mean-variance optimization against your current asset allocation.
Is Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Trip Group. If investors know Trip will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Trip Group listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 4.926 | Earnings Share 2.86 | Revenue Per Share 74.603 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.136 | Return On Assets 0.0348 |
The market value of Trip Group is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Trip that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Trip Group's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Trip Group's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Trip Group's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Trip Group's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Trip Group's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Trip Group is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Trip Group's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.