Fortune Brands Stock Forward View
| FBIN Stock | 52.55 1.23 2.40% |
Fortune Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Fortune Brands' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we suggest always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Fortune Brands' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Fortune Brands fundamentals over time.
As of today the relative strength index (rsi) of Fortune Brands' share price is below 20 . This usually indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.25) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.7279 | EPS Estimate Current Year 3.515 | EPS Estimate Next Year 4.1425 | Wall Street Target Price 60.2 |
Using Fortune Brands hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Fortune Brands Innovations from the perspective of Fortune Brands response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Fortune Brands using Fortune Brands' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Fortune using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Fortune Brands' stock price.
Fortune Brands Short Interest
An investor who is long Fortune Brands may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Fortune Brands and may potentially protect profits, hedge Fortune Brands with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 53.6948 | Short Percent 0.0601 | Short Ratio 3.09 | Shares Short Prior Month 5.6 M | 50 Day MA 55.0546 |
Fortune Relative Strength Index
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Fortune Brands Innovations on the next trading day is expected to be 54.17 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.10 and the sum of the absolute errors of 130.38.Fortune Brands Innov Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Fortune Brands' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Fortune. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Fortune can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Fortune Brands Innovations. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Fortune Brands' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Fortune Brands.
Fortune Brands Implied Volatility | 0.62 |
Fortune Brands' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Fortune Brands Innovations stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Fortune Brands' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Fortune Brands stock will not fluctuate a lot when Fortune Brands' options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Fortune Brands Innovations on the next trading day is expected to be 54.17 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.10 and the sum of the absolute errors of 130.38. Fortune Brands after-hype prediction price | USD 52.31 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Fortune Brands to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Fortune contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Fortune Brands Innovations will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0388% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Fortune Brands trading at USD 52.55, that is roughly USD 0.0204 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Fortune Brands' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Fortune Brands Innovations options at the current volatility level of 0.62%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Fortune Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Fortune Brands' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Fortune Brands' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Fortune Brands stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Fortune Brands' open interest, investors have to compare it to Fortune Brands' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Fortune Brands is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Fortune. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Fortune Brands Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Fortune price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Fortune using various technical indicators. When you analyze Fortune charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Fortune Brands Cash Forecast
Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the Fortune Brands' financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
Cash | First Reported 2010-12-31 | Previous Quarter 223.9 M | Current Value 264 M | Quarterly Volatility 129.5 M |
Fortune Brands Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 19th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Fortune Brands Innovations on the next trading day is expected to be 54.17 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.10, mean absolute percentage error of 7.08, and the sum of the absolute errors of 130.38.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Fortune Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Fortune Brands' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Fortune Brands Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Fortune Brands | Fortune Brands Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Fortune Brands Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Fortune Brands' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Fortune Brands' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 50.59 and 57.76, respectively. We have considered Fortune Brands' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Fortune Brands stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Fortune Brands stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 121.9057 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.103 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.038 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 130.384 |
Predictive Modules for Fortune Brands
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Fortune Brands Innov. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Fortune Brands After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Fortune Brands at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Fortune Brands or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Fortune Brands, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Fortune Brands Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Fortune Brands' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Fortune Brands' historical news coverage. Fortune Brands' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 48.76 and 55.86, respectively. We have considered Fortune Brands' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Fortune Brands is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Fortune Brands Innov is based on 3 months time horizon.
Fortune Brands Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Fortune Brands is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Fortune Brands backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Fortune Brands, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.36 | 3.59 | 0.56 | 0.24 | 15 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 15 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
52.55 | 52.31 | 0.79 |
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Fortune Brands Hype Timeline
Fortune Brands Innov is currently traded for 52.55. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.56, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.24. Fortune is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 52.31 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price boost on the next news is projected to be 0.79%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.36%. The volatility of related hype on Fortune Brands is about 544.76%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 52.79. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 4.46 B. Net Income was 298.8 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 2 B. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 15 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Fortune Brands to cross-verify your projections.Fortune Brands Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Fortune Brands' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Fortune Brands' future price movements. Getting to know how Fortune Brands' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Fortune Brands may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SSD | Simpson Manufacturing | 1.62 | 7 per month | 1.15 | 0.15 | 3.49 | (2.17) | 6.98 | |
| TREX | Trex Company | 1.56 | 31 per month | 1.08 | 0.17 | 3.78 | (2.24) | 11.35 | |
| MSA | MSA Safety | 1.48 | 8 per month | 0.76 | 0.22 | 3.19 | (1.63) | 6.97 | |
| MIDD | Middleby Corp | (3.43) | 9 per month | 1.19 | 0.19 | 3.85 | (2.24) | 12.68 | |
| KEX | Kirby | (1.74) | 11 per month | 1.28 | 0.10 | 3.06 | (2.27) | 9.34 | |
| GATX | GATX Corporation | 2.79 | 9 per month | 0.56 | 0.28 | 1.96 | (1.23) | 4.89 | |
| FCN | FTI Consulting | 2.83 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 2.48 | (2.59) | 14.70 | |
| TKR | Timken Company | 1.56 | 9 per month | 1.02 | 0.24 | 3.57 | (2.13) | 8.44 | |
| GTES | Gates Industrial | (0.06) | 7 per month | 1.46 | 0.13 | 3.74 | (2.29) | 9.05 | |
| KBR | KBR Inc | (0.02) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 3.30 | (2.69) | 13.34 |
Other Forecasting Options for Fortune Brands
For every potential investor in Fortune, whether a beginner or expert, Fortune Brands' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Fortune Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Fortune. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Fortune Brands' price trends.Fortune Brands Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Fortune Brands stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Fortune Brands could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Fortune Brands by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Fortune Brands Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Fortune Brands stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Fortune Brands shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Fortune Brands stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Fortune Brands Innovations entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 271633.0 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.4786 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.02 | |||
| Day Median Price | 51.94 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 52.14 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 1.23 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 1.23 |
Fortune Brands Risk Indicators
The analysis of Fortune Brands' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Fortune Brands' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting fortune stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.24 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.33 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.46 | |||
| Variance | 11.97 | |||
| Downside Variance | 12.65 | |||
| Semi Variance | 11.1 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.56) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Fortune Brands
The number of cover stories for Fortune Brands depends on current market conditions and Fortune Brands' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Fortune Brands is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Fortune Brands' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Fortune Brands Short Properties
Fortune Brands' future price predictability will typically decrease when Fortune Brands' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Fortune Brands Innovations often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Fortune Brands' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Fortune Brands' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 121.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 264 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Fortune Brands to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Dashboard module to portfolio dashboard that provides centralized access to all your investments.
Will Building Products sector continue expanding? Could Fortune diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Fortune Brands. Market participants price Fortune higher when confident in its future expansion prospects. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Fortune Brands data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.25) | Dividend Share 1 | Earnings Share 2.47 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.02) |
Fortune Brands Innov's market price often diverges from its book value, the accounting figure shown on Fortune's balance sheet. Smart investors calculate Fortune Brands' intrinsic value - its true economic worth - which may differ significantly from both market price and book value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Since Fortune Brands' trading price responds to investor sentiment, macroeconomic conditions, and market psychology, it can swing far from fundamental value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Fortune Brands' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Fortune Brands is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Fortune Brands' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.