First Capital Stock Forward View - Polynomial Regression

FCAP Stock  USD 54.81  1.38  2.58%   
First Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although First Capital's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of First Capital's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of First Capital fundamentals over time.
As of today, The relative strength index (RSI) of First Capital's share price is at 53. This usually indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling First Capital, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 53

 Impartial

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of First Capital's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with First Capital, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting First Capital's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.545
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.253
Using First Capital hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of First Capital from the perspective of First Capital response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of First Capital on the next trading day is expected to be 45.40 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.61 and the sum of the absolute errors of 220.27.

First Capital after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 54.58  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of First Capital to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in First Stock, please use our How to Invest in First Capital guide.

First Capital Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine First price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for First using various technical indicators. When you analyze First charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
First Capital polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for First Capital as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices.

First Capital Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 31st of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of First Capital on the next trading day is expected to be 45.40 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.61, mean absolute percentage error of 20.70, and the sum of the absolute errors of 220.27.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict First Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that First Capital's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

First Capital Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest First Capital  First Capital Price Prediction  Buy or Sell Advice  

First Capital Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting First Capital's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. First Capital's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 41.92 and 48.87, respectively. We have considered First Capital's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
54.81
45.40
Expected Value
48.87
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of First Capital stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent First Capital stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria121.1406
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation3.611
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0675
SAESum of the absolute errors220.2692
A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the First Capital historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm

Predictive Modules for First Capital

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as First Capital. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
51.1154.5858.05
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
49.1652.6356.10
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
45.3653.1660.97
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as First Capital. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against First Capital's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, First Capital's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in First Capital.

First Capital After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of First Capital at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in First Capital or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of First Capital, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

First Capital Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting First Capital's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on First Capital's historical news coverage. First Capital's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 51.11 and 58.05, respectively. We have considered First Capital's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
54.81
54.58
After-hype Price
58.05
Upside
First Capital is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of First Capital is based on 3 months time horizon.

First Capital Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as First Capital is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading First Capital backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with First Capital, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.47 
3.47
  0.23 
  0.06 
8 Events / Month
6 Events / Month
In about 8 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
54.81
54.58
0.42 
694.00  
Notes

First Capital Hype Timeline

First Capital is currently traded for 54.81. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.23, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.06. First is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 54.58. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.42%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.47%. The volatility of related hype on First Capital is about 2609.02%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 54.75. About 24.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.28. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. First Capital last dividend was issued on the 12th of September 2025. The entity had 11:10 split on the 17th of July 2006. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of First Capital to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in First Stock, please use our How to Invest in First Capital guide.

First Capital Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to First Capital's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict First Capital's future price movements. Getting to know how First Capital's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how First Capital may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
LARKLandmark Bancorp(0.23)45 per month 1.42  0.08  3.73 (2.95) 8.99 
CFBKCF Bankshares 0.03 10 per month 0.82  0.14  4.49 (1.80) 9.61 
FNWDFinward Bancorp(0.34)9 per month 1.51  0.05  3.98 (2.31) 9.57 
EBMTEagle Bancorp Montana(0.33)10 per month 1.00  0.21  3.06 (1.80) 7.09 
PEBKPeoples Bancorp of(0.28)8 per month 1.03  0.11  3.26 (1.72) 5.97 
ECBKECB Bancorp(0.01)8 per month 1.08  0.06  2.00 (1.66) 11.46 
MNSBMainstreet Bank 0.22 10 per month 1.33  0.06  2.63 (2.64) 8.15 
HNVRHanover Bancorp(0.37)9 per month 0.91  0.10  2.54 (2.05) 7.48 
CZWICitizens Community Bancorp(0.20)9 per month 0.87  0.10  2.36 (1.73) 7.50 
RMBIRichmond Mutual Bancorporation 0.18 5 per month 1.22  0.01  3.33 (2.55) 7.33 

Other Forecasting Options for First Capital

For every potential investor in First, whether a beginner or expert, First Capital's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. First Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in First. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying First Capital's price trends.

First Capital Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with First Capital stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of First Capital could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing First Capital by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

First Capital Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how First Capital stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading First Capital shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying First Capital stock market strength indicators, traders can identify First Capital entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

First Capital Risk Indicators

The analysis of First Capital's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in First Capital's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting first stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for First Capital

The number of cover stories for First Capital depends on current market conditions and First Capital's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that First Capital is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about First Capital's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Additional Tools for First Stock Analysis

When running First Capital's price analysis, check to measure First Capital's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy First Capital is operating at the current time. Most of First Capital's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of First Capital's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move First Capital's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of First Capital to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.