FTI Consulting Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| FCN Stock | USD 204.10 2.24 1.11% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of FTI Consulting on the next trading day is expected to be 206.87 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.70 and the sum of the absolute errors of 229.64. FTI Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although FTI Consulting's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of FTI Consulting's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of FTI Consulting fundamentals over time.
FTI |
FTI Consulting Cash Forecast
Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the FTI Consulting's financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
Cash | First Reported 1996-06-30 | Previous Quarter 226.4 M | Current Value 386.3 M | Quarterly Volatility 125.5 M |
FTI Consulting Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 27th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of FTI Consulting on the next trading day is expected to be 206.87 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.70, mean absolute percentage error of 27.49, and the sum of the absolute errors of 229.64.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict FTI Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that FTI Consulting's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
FTI Consulting Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest FTI Consulting | FTI Consulting Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
FTI Consulting Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting FTI Consulting's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. FTI Consulting's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 205.00 and 208.73, respectively. We have considered FTI Consulting's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of FTI Consulting stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent FTI Consulting stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 123.2623 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 3.7038 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0173 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 229.6367 |
Predictive Modules for FTI Consulting
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as FTI Consulting. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of FTI Consulting's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for FTI Consulting
For every potential investor in FTI, whether a beginner or expert, FTI Consulting's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. FTI Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in FTI. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying FTI Consulting's price trends.FTI Consulting Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with FTI Consulting stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of FTI Consulting could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing FTI Consulting by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
FTI Consulting Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of FTI Consulting's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of FTI Consulting's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
FTI Consulting Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how FTI Consulting stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading FTI Consulting shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying FTI Consulting stock market strength indicators, traders can identify FTI Consulting entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
FTI Consulting Risk Indicators
The analysis of FTI Consulting's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in FTI Consulting's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting fti stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.9685 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.82 | |||
| Variance | 3.3 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with FTI Consulting
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if FTI Consulting position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in FTI Consulting will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with FTI Stock
Moving against FTI Stock
| 0.73 | LZ | LegalZoom | PairCorr |
| 0.7 | SQ | Block Inc | PairCorr |
| 0.69 | WM | Waste Management | PairCorr |
| 0.66 | DRVN | Driven Brands Holdings | PairCorr |
| 0.66 | VRSK | Verisk Analytics | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to FTI Consulting could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace FTI Consulting when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back FTI Consulting - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling FTI Consulting to buy it.
The correlation of FTI Consulting is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as FTI Consulting moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if FTI Consulting moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for FTI Consulting can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of FTI Consulting to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in FTI Stock, please use our How to Invest in FTI Consulting guide.You can also try the Global Markets Map module to get a quick overview of global market snapshot using zoomable world map. Drill down to check world indexes.
Is Research & Consulting Services space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of FTI Consulting. If investors know FTI will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about FTI Consulting listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.21) | Earnings Share 8.7 | Revenue Per Share 106.211 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.037 | Return On Assets 0.0756 |
The market value of FTI Consulting is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of FTI that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of FTI Consulting's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is FTI Consulting's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because FTI Consulting's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect FTI Consulting's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between FTI Consulting's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if FTI Consulting is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, FTI Consulting's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.