Fidelity Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| FDBC Stock | USD 44.14 1.20 2.65% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Fidelity DD Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 48.15 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.95 and the sum of the absolute errors of 58.07. Fidelity Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Fidelity stock prices and determine the direction of Fidelity DD Bancorp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Fidelity's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time the relative strength index (rsi) of Fidelity's share price is below 20 . This usually indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.477 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.185 |
Using Fidelity hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Fidelity DD Bancorp from the perspective of Fidelity response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Fidelity DD Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 48.15 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.95 and the sum of the absolute errors of 58.07. Fidelity after-hype prediction price | USD 45.34 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Fidelity to cross-verify your projections. Fidelity Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Fidelity price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Fidelity using various technical indicators. When you analyze Fidelity charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Fidelity Cash Forecast
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Fidelity's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 2000-03-31 | Previous Quarter 165.5 M | Current Value 142.2 M | Quarterly Volatility 51.1 M |
Fidelity Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Fidelity DD Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 48.15 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.95, mean absolute percentage error of 1.49, and the sum of the absolute errors of 58.07.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Fidelity Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Fidelity's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Fidelity Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Fidelity | Fidelity Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Fidelity Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Fidelity's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Fidelity's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 46.10 and 50.19, respectively. We have considered Fidelity's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Fidelity stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Fidelity stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.5101 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.9519 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0212 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 58.0679 |
Predictive Modules for Fidelity
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Fidelity DD Bancorp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Fidelity After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Fidelity at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Fidelity or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Fidelity, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Fidelity Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Fidelity's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Fidelity's historical news coverage. Fidelity's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 43.31 and 47.37, respectively. We have considered Fidelity's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Fidelity is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Fidelity DD Bancorp is based on 3 months time horizon.
Fidelity Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Fidelity is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Fidelity backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Fidelity, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.02 | 2.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 8 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
44.14 | 45.34 | 0.00 |
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Fidelity Hype Timeline
Fidelity DD Bancorp is currently traded for 44.14. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Fidelity is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.02%. %. The volatility of related hype on Fidelity is about 1773.91%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 44.14. About 19.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.16. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Fidelity DD Bancorp last dividend was issued on the 14th of November 2025. The entity had 3:2 split on the 29th of September 2017. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Fidelity to cross-verify your projections.Fidelity Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Fidelity's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Fidelity's future price movements. Getting to know how Fidelity's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Fidelity may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| TSBK | Timberland Bancorp | 0.14 | 8 per month | 0.96 | 0.12 | 2.78 | (1.62) | 8.74 | |
| COSO | CoastalSouth Bancshares | (0.18) | 18 per month | 0.85 | 0.06 | 1.66 | (1.54) | 6.77 | |
| PKBK | Parke Bancorp | 0.05 | 13 per month | 0.46 | 0.23 | 3.36 | (1.33) | 6.17 | |
| CZFS | Citizens Financial Services | (0.59) | 9 per month | 1.66 | 0.11 | 4.15 | (2.85) | 10.15 | |
| LNKB | LINKBANCORP | 0.10 | 9 per month | 1.21 | 0.18 | 3.66 | (2.16) | 8.31 | |
| NECB | Northeast Community Bancorp | (0.05) | 10 per month | 1.28 | 0.12 | 3.69 | (2.26) | 7.66 | |
| OVLY | Oak Valley Bancorp | (0.21) | 8 per month | 0.67 | 0.17 | 3.09 | (1.49) | 6.11 | |
| ISTR | Investar Holding Corp | (0.37) | 9 per month | 0.53 | 0.21 | 3.13 | (1.54) | 8.74 | |
| FUNC | First United | (0.21) | 9 per month | 1.21 | 0.08 | 3.79 | (2.47) | 10.37 | |
| FNLC | First Bancorp | 0.17 | 8 per month | 1.06 | 0.06 | 3.44 | (1.99) | 7.07 |
Other Forecasting Options for Fidelity
For every potential investor in Fidelity, whether a beginner or expert, Fidelity's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Fidelity Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Fidelity. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Fidelity's price trends.Fidelity Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Fidelity stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Fidelity could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Fidelity by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Fidelity Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Fidelity stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Fidelity shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Fidelity stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Fidelity DD Bancorp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.97 | |||
| Day Median Price | 44.14 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 44.14 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.60) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (1.20) |
Fidelity Risk Indicators
The analysis of Fidelity's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Fidelity's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting fidelity stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.48 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.52 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.98 | |||
| Variance | 3.91 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.64 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.3 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.74) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Fidelity
The number of cover stories for Fidelity depends on current market conditions and Fidelity's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Fidelity is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Fidelity's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Fidelity Short Properties
Fidelity's future price predictability will typically decrease when Fidelity's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Fidelity DD Bancorp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Fidelity's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Fidelity's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 5.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 414.8 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Fidelity to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Money Flow Index module to determine momentum by analyzing Money Flow Index and other technical indicators.
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Fidelity. If investors know Fidelity will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Fidelity listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.477 | Dividend Share 1.6 | Earnings Share 4.51 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.185 |
The market value of Fidelity DD Bancorp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Fidelity that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Fidelity's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Fidelity's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Fidelity's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Fidelity's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Fidelity's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Fidelity is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Fidelity's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.