First Trust ETF Forward View - Simple Regression
| FDN ETF | USD 262.90 -0.86 -0.33% |
First Trust Dow's Simple Regression forecast is generated from the selected price series and evaluated against observed values. Forecast accuracy depends on how stable the recent price trend has been — trending markets suit some models better than others. The forecast is recalculated with each session so it does not rely on stale inputs. A small Bias confirms the model is not systematically over- or under-predicting. The Simple Regression model projects First Trust at 265.33 for the next trading day, above the most recent closing price. All values shown are model-generated projections and should be evaluated alongside other analytical inputs.
Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 14th of May 2026
Over a 90-day horizon, the Simple Regression model forecasts First Trust at 265.33 for the next trading day, with a mean absolute deviation of 5.97 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.02 , and sum of absolute errors of 369.88 .This represents a tight forecast with good short-term tracking of First Trust's price movement. This output is intended for short-term analytical reference.
ETF Forecast Pattern
| Backtest First Trust | First Trust Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
The next-day forecast range for First Trust defines statistically derived downside and upside boundaries based on model performance. Downside is estimated near 263.98 and upside near 266.67. The narrow range indicates limited short-term dispersion.
Model Predictive Factors
The table below summarizes the Simple Regression model's error metrics for First Trust ETF. Lower MAD and MAPE values indicate tighter forecast accuracy. AIC measures relative model quality — lower values indicate less information loss and a better-fitting model. A large Bias suggests systematic over- or under-prediction.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 123.9479 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 5.9658 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0244 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 369.8827 |
Other Forecasting Options for First Trust
Bollinger Bands applied to First Trust ETF price data measure how far First Trust has deviated from its recent average relative to its own volatility. This distinction drives the choice of forecasting model applied to First Trust's price data. On-balance volume for First Trust ETF creates a running indicator of buying versus selling pressure in First Trust. Price departures from the channel boundary often mean-revert, offering tactical signals for First Trust's.First Trust Comparable Funds
These peer funds help position First Trust within a broader category rather than against operating businesses. Funds are typically compared on holdings mix, category returns, risk measures, and implementation cost rather than on operating-company margins. Differences across peer funds often reflect mandate, region, income policy, or leverage choices.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
First Trust Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for First Trust quantify how the ETF responds to shifts in volume and sentiment. These indicators capture shifts in momentum that may precede significant price moves in First Trust. The Market Facilitation Index measures how efficiently price moves relative to volume — rising MFI with rising volume signals strong trend participation. Monitoring these indicators for First Trust through complete market cycles reveals recurring patterns.
First Trust Risk Indicators
Analyzing First Trust's risk indicators separates symmetric price swings from asymmetric downside exposure. Understanding and quantifying the risks present in First Trust helps place recent price behavior in context. These metrics are most informative when compared against similar equities with comparable growth profiles and market capitalization. When semi-deviation is high relative to standard deviation, First Trust's losses have been disproportionately large compared to gains.
| Mean Deviation | 1.1 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.4 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.41 | |||
| Variance | 2.0 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.24 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.95 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -1.15 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.