Phoenix New Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| FENG Stock | USD 2.52 0.05 2.02% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Phoenix New Media on the next trading day is expected to be 2.50 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.11 and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.51. Phoenix Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Phoenix New's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Phoenix |
Phoenix New Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 26th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Phoenix New Media on the next trading day is expected to be 2.50 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.11, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.51.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Phoenix Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Phoenix New's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Phoenix New Stock Forecast Pattern
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Phoenix New Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Phoenix New's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Phoenix New's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.03 and 7.44, respectively. We have considered Phoenix New's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Phoenix New stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Phoenix New stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0143 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1104 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0392 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 6.5142 |
Predictive Modules for Phoenix New
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Phoenix New Media. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Phoenix New
For every potential investor in Phoenix, whether a beginner or expert, Phoenix New's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Phoenix Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Phoenix. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Phoenix New's price trends.View Phoenix New Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Phoenix New Media Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Phoenix New's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Phoenix New's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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Phoenix New Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Phoenix New stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Phoenix New shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Phoenix New stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Phoenix New Media entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Phoenix New Risk Indicators
The analysis of Phoenix New's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Phoenix New's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting phoenix stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.67 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.91 | |||
| Variance | 24.08 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
When determining whether Phoenix New Media is a strong investment it is important to analyze Phoenix New's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Phoenix New's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Phoenix Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Phoenix New to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Global Correlations module to find global opportunities by holding instruments from different markets.
Is Interactive Media & Services space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Phoenix New. If investors know Phoenix will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Phoenix New listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.86) | Earnings Share (0.53) | Revenue Per Share 56.873 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.07) | Return On Assets (0.02) |
The market value of Phoenix New Media is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Phoenix that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Phoenix New's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Phoenix New's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Phoenix New's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Phoenix New's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Phoenix New's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Phoenix New is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Phoenix New's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.