Federated Investors Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| FHI Stock | USD 54.69 0.38 0.70% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Federated Investors B on the next trading day is expected to be 56.34 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.53 and the sum of the absolute errors of 32.63. Federated Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Federated Investors' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 23rd of January 2026 the relative strength index (rsi) of Federated Investors' share price is below 20 . This usually indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.264 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.1206 | EPS Estimate Current Year 4.9681 | EPS Estimate Next Year 5.1254 | Wall Street Target Price 54 |
Using Federated Investors hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Federated Investors B from the perspective of Federated Investors response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Federated Investors using Federated Investors' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Federated using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Federated Investors' stock price.
Federated Investors Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Federated Investors' short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Federated. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Federated Investors stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 47.9954 | Short Percent 0.0326 | Short Ratio 4.2 | Shares Short Prior Month 2.2 M | 50 Day MA 51.372 |
Federated Investors Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Federated Investors' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Federated. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Federated can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Federated Investors B. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Federated Investors Implied Volatility | 0.5 |
Federated Investors' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Federated Investors B stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Federated Investors' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Federated Investors stock will not fluctuate a lot when Federated Investors' options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Federated Investors B on the next trading day is expected to be 56.34 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.53 and the sum of the absolute errors of 32.63. Federated Investors after-hype prediction price | USD 54.69 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Federated | Build AI portfolio with Federated Stock |
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Federated contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Federated Investors B will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0313% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Federated Investors trading at USD 54.69, that is roughly USD 0.0171 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Federated Investors' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Federated Investors B options at the current volatility level of 0.5%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Federated Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Federated Investors' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Federated Investors' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Federated Investors stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Federated Investors' open interest, investors have to compare it to Federated Investors' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Federated Investors is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Federated. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Federated Investors Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Federated price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Federated using various technical indicators. When you analyze Federated charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Federated Investors Cash Forecast
Predicting cash flow or other financial metrics requires analysts to utilize a variety of statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools help uncover hidden patterns in the Federated Investors' financial statements, enabling forecasts of their impact on future stock prices.
Cash | First Reported 1998-03-31 | Previous Quarter 371 M | Current Value 506.3 M | Quarterly Volatility 103.8 M |
Federated Investors Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Federated Investors B on the next trading day is expected to be 56.34 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.53, mean absolute percentage error of 0.46, and the sum of the absolute errors of 32.63.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Federated Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Federated Investors' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Federated Investors Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Federated Investors | Federated Investors Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Federated Investors Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Federated Investors' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Federated Investors' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 55.08 and 57.59, respectively. We have considered Federated Investors' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Federated Investors stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Federated Investors stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.3303 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.5349 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0106 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 32.6306 |
Predictive Modules for Federated Investors
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Federated Investors. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Federated Investors After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Federated Investors at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Federated Investors or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Federated Investors, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Federated Investors Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Federated Investors' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Federated Investors' historical news coverage. Federated Investors' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 53.42 and 55.96, respectively. We have considered Federated Investors' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Federated Investors is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Federated Investors is based on 3 months time horizon.
Federated Investors Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Federated Investors is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Federated Investors backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Federated Investors, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.20 | 1.25 | 0.09 | 0.10 | 10 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
54.69 | 54.69 | 0.00 |
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Federated Investors Hype Timeline
On the 23rd of January Federated Investors is traded for 54.69. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.09, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.1. Federated is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.2%. %. The volatility of related hype on Federated Investors is about 257.44%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 54.79. About 92.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of Federated Investors was currently reported as 16.06. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.8. Federated Investors last dividend was issued on the 7th of November 2025. The entity had 3:2 split on the 18th of July 2000. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Federated Investors to cross-verify your projections.Federated Investors Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Federated Investors' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Federated Investors' future price movements. Getting to know how Federated Investors' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Federated Investors may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| GBDC | Golub Capital BDC | (0.04) | 11 per month | 0.88 | (0.1) | 1.37 | (1.31) | 3.53 | |
| AB | AllianceBernstein Holding LP | 0.80 | 10 per month | 1.26 | (0.03) | 2.34 | (1.79) | 6.01 | |
| CNS | Cohen Steers | (0.02) | 11 per month | 2.01 | 0 | 2.71 | (2.68) | 13.66 | |
| APAM | Artisan Partners Asset | 0.98 | 4 per month | 1.30 | (0.03) | 2.57 | (2.52) | 6.18 | |
| HTGC | Hercules Capital | (0.04) | 9 per month | 0.91 | 0.06 | 1.86 | (1.64) | 4.48 | |
| VCTR | Victory Capital Holdings | (0.08) | 8 per month | 1.26 | 0 | 2.26 | (2.06) | 5.64 | |
| FSK | FS KKR Capital | (0.05) | 10 per month | 1.07 | (0.06) | 2.05 | (1.87) | 5.70 | |
| AGO | Assured Guaranty | 0.76 | 10 per month | 0.92 | (0.01) | 1.86 | (1.26) | 10.58 | |
| UCB | United Community Banks | 2.06 | 7 per month | 0.87 | 0.11 | 2.80 | (1.30) | 6.05 |
Other Forecasting Options for Federated Investors
For every potential investor in Federated, whether a beginner or expert, Federated Investors' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Federated Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Federated. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Federated Investors' price trends.Federated Investors Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Federated Investors stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Federated Investors could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Federated Investors by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Federated Investors Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Federated Investors stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Federated Investors shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Federated Investors stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Federated Investors B entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Federated Investors Risk Indicators
The analysis of Federated Investors' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Federated Investors' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting federated stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.1 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.39 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.36 | |||
| Variance | 1.85 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.11 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.92 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.14) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Federated Investors
The number of cover stories for Federated Investors depends on current market conditions and Federated Investors' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Federated Investors is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Federated Investors' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Federated Investors Short Properties
Federated Investors' future price predictability will typically decrease when Federated Investors' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Federated Investors B often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Federated Investors' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Federated Investors' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 79.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 641 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Federated Investors to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Sectors module to list of equity sectors categorizing publicly traded companies based on their primary business activities.
Is Asset Management & Custody Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Federated Investors. If investors know Federated will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Federated Investors listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.264 | Dividend Share 1.3 | Earnings Share 4.78 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.149 |
The market value of Federated Investors is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Federated that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Federated Investors' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Federated Investors' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Federated Investors' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Federated Investors' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Federated Investors' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Federated Investors is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Federated Investors' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.