First Horizon Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| FHN Stock | USD 21.94 0.44 2.05% |
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of First Horizon National on the next trading day is expected to be 21.98 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.30 and the sum of the absolute errors of 17.47. First Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although First Horizon's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of First Horizon's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of First Horizon fundamentals over time.
First |
Open Interest Against 2025-03-21 First Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast First Horizon's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in First Horizon's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for First Horizon stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current First Horizon's open interest, investors have to compare it to First Horizon's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of First Horizon is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in First. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
First Horizon Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 31st of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of First Horizon National on the next trading day is expected to be 21.98 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.30, mean absolute percentage error of 0.25, and the sum of the absolute errors of 17.47.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict First Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that First Horizon's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
First Horizon Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest First Horizon | First Horizon Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
First Horizon Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting First Horizon's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. First Horizon's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 19.38 and 24.58, respectively. We have considered First Horizon's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of First Horizon stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent First Horizon stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0779 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2962 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0147 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 17.475 |
Predictive Modules for First Horizon
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as First Horizon National. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for First Horizon
For every potential investor in First, whether a beginner or expert, First Horizon's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. First Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in First. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying First Horizon's price trends.First Horizon Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with First Horizon stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of First Horizon could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing First Horizon by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
First Horizon National Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of First Horizon's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of First Horizon's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
First Horizon Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how First Horizon stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading First Horizon shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying First Horizon stock market strength indicators, traders can identify First Horizon National entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 107649.0 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 1.023256 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.02 | |||
| Day Median Price | 21.89 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 21.9 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.28 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.44 |
First Horizon Risk Indicators
The analysis of First Horizon's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in First Horizon's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting first stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.43 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.28 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.52 | |||
| Variance | 6.34 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.46 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.64 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.71) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with First Horizon
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if First Horizon position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in First Horizon will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving against First Stock
| 0.54 | NU | Nu Holdings Buyout Trend | PairCorr |
| 0.5 | CFG-PE | Citizens Financial | PairCorr |
| 0.4 | TFC-PO | Truist Financial | PairCorr |
| 0.36 | WF | Woori Financial Group Earnings Call This Week | PairCorr |
| 0.36 | TFC-PR | Truist Financial | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to First Horizon could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace First Horizon when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back First Horizon - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling First Horizon National to buy it.
The correlation of First Horizon is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as First Horizon moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if First Horizon National moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for First Horizon can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of First Horizon to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Financial Widgets module to easily integrated Macroaxis content with over 30 different plug-and-play financial widgets.
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of First Horizon. If investors know First will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about First Horizon listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.734 | Earnings Share 1.36 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.186 | Return On Assets |
The market value of First Horizon National is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of First that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of First Horizon's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is First Horizon's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because First Horizon's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect First Horizon's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between First Horizon's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if First Horizon is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, First Horizon's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.