Comfort Systems Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| FIX Stock | USD 491.06 1.09 0.22% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Comfort Systems USA on the next trading day is expected to be 489.04 with a mean absolute deviation of 10.83 and the sum of the absolute errors of 660.65. Comfort Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
Comfort |
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Comfort Systems' financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 1997-09-30 | Previous Quarter 199.4 M | Current Value 415.6 M | Quarterly Volatility 53.9 M |
Comfort Systems Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 26th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Comfort Systems USA on the next trading day is expected to be 489.04 with a mean absolute deviation of 10.83, mean absolute percentage error of 168.17, and the sum of the absolute errors of 660.65.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Comfort Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Comfort Systems' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Comfort Systems Stock Forecast Pattern
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Comfort Systems Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Comfort Systems' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Comfort Systems' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 486.15 and 491.93, respectively. We have considered Comfort Systems' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Comfort Systems stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Comfort Systems stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 123.2355 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 10.8303 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0273 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 660.6483 |
Predictive Modules for Comfort Systems
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Comfort Systems USA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Comfort Systems
For every potential investor in Comfort, whether a beginner or expert, Comfort Systems' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Comfort Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Comfort. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Comfort Systems' price trends.Comfort Systems Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Comfort Systems stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Comfort Systems could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Comfort Systems by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Comfort Systems USA Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Comfort Systems' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Comfort Systems' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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Comfort Systems Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Comfort Systems stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Comfort Systems shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Comfort Systems stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Comfort Systems USA entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Comfort Systems Risk Indicators
The analysis of Comfort Systems' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Comfort Systems' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting comfort stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.81 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.77 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.85 | |||
| Variance | 8.15 | |||
| Downside Variance | 12.63 | |||
| Semi Variance | 7.69 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.93) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Additional Tools for Comfort Stock Analysis
When running Comfort Systems' price analysis, check to measure Comfort Systems' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Comfort Systems is operating at the current time. Most of Comfort Systems' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Comfort Systems' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Comfort Systems' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Comfort Systems to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.