Firefly Aerospace Stock Forecast - Simple Regression
| FLY Stock | USD 29.13 1.79 5.79% |
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Firefly Aerospace Common on the next trading day is expected to be 27.94 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.98 and the sum of the absolute errors of 184.61. Firefly Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength indicator of Firefly Aerospace's share price is below 20 . This usually indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Revenue Growth 5.716 |
Using Firefly Aerospace hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Firefly Aerospace Common from the perspective of Firefly Aerospace response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Firefly Aerospace using Firefly Aerospace's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Firefly using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Firefly Aerospace's stock price.
Firefly Aerospace Short Interest
An investor who is long Firefly Aerospace may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Firefly Aerospace and may potentially protect profits, hedge Firefly Aerospace with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 60.35 | Shares Short Prior Month 3.5 M | Shares Short 4.7 M |
Firefly Aerospace Common Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Firefly Aerospace's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Firefly. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Firefly can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Firefly Aerospace Common. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Firefly Aerospace Implied Volatility | 1.26 |
Firefly Aerospace's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Firefly Aerospace Common stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Firefly Aerospace's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Firefly Aerospace stock will not fluctuate a lot when Firefly Aerospace's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Firefly Aerospace Common on the next trading day is expected to be 27.94 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.98 and the sum of the absolute errors of 184.61. Firefly Aerospace after-hype prediction price | USD 29.74 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Firefly Aerospace to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Firefly contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Firefly Aerospace Common will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0788% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Firefly Aerospace trading at USD 29.13, that is roughly USD 0.0229 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Firefly Aerospace's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Firefly Aerospace Common options at the current volatility level of 1.26%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Firefly Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Firefly Aerospace's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Firefly Aerospace's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Firefly Aerospace stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Firefly Aerospace's open interest, investors have to compare it to Firefly Aerospace's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Firefly Aerospace is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Firefly. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Firefly Aerospace Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Firefly price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Firefly using various technical indicators. When you analyze Firefly charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Firefly Aerospace Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 25th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Firefly Aerospace Common on the next trading day is expected to be 27.94 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.98, mean absolute percentage error of 12.28, and the sum of the absolute errors of 184.61.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Firefly Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Firefly Aerospace's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Firefly Aerospace Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Firefly Aerospace | Firefly Aerospace Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Firefly Aerospace Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Firefly Aerospace's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Firefly Aerospace's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 20.45 and 35.42, respectively. We have considered Firefly Aerospace's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Firefly Aerospace stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Firefly Aerospace stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 122.4562 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.9776 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.1343 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 184.6118 |
Predictive Modules for Firefly Aerospace
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Firefly Aerospace Common. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Firefly Aerospace After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Firefly Aerospace at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Firefly Aerospace or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Firefly Aerospace, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Firefly Aerospace Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Firefly Aerospace's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Firefly Aerospace's historical news coverage. Firefly Aerospace's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 22.25 and 37.23, respectively. We have considered Firefly Aerospace's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Firefly Aerospace is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Firefly Aerospace Common is based on 3 months time horizon.
Firefly Aerospace Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Firefly Aerospace is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Firefly Aerospace backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Firefly Aerospace, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.37 | 7.49 | 0.61 | 0.35 | 9 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
29.13 | 29.74 | 2.09 |
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Firefly Aerospace Hype Timeline
On the 24th of January Firefly Aerospace Common is traded for 29.13. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.61, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.35. Firefly is expected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 29.74 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price jump on the next news is projected to be 2.09%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.37%. The volatility of related hype on Firefly Aerospace is about 793.43%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 28.78. Firefly Aerospace Common has 168.4 M in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 2.44, meaning that the company heavily relies on borrowing funds for operations. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next expected press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Firefly Aerospace to cross-verify your projections.Firefly Aerospace Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Firefly Aerospace's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Firefly Aerospace's future price movements. Getting to know how Firefly Aerospace's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Firefly Aerospace may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| VSEC | VSE Corporation | 1.96 | 12 per month | 1.79 | 0.11 | 4.51 | (3.15) | 12.04 | |
| LUNR | Intuitive Machines | 0.91 | 7 per month | 5.19 | 0.11 | 11.71 | (8.49) | 46.43 | |
| EAF | GrafTech International | 0.37 | 28 per month | 5.40 | (0.02) | 7.10 | (6.92) | 22.15 | |
| AIR | AAR Corp | (10.19) | 8 per month | 1.50 | 0.16 | 4.20 | (2.19) | 9.63 | |
| SPR | Spirit Aerosystems Holdings | (0.69) | 23 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 2.29 | (3.30) | 7.96 | |
| TPC | Tutor Perini | (0.66) | 24 per month | 2.14 | 0.06 | 4.29 | (4.24) | 11.99 | |
| PL | Planet Labs PBC | 2.14 | 10 per month | 3.13 | 0.19 | 7.74 | (5.96) | 42.89 | |
| MYRG | MYR Group | (0.65) | 12 per month | 2.51 | 0.07 | 4.75 | (5.30) | 12.05 | |
| KFY | Korn Ferry | (0.63) | 11 per month | 1.45 | (0.03) | 2.18 | (2.19) | 7.06 | |
| PLUG | Plug Power | (2.00) | 27 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 7.91 | (8.36) | 19.12 |
Other Forecasting Options for Firefly Aerospace
For every potential investor in Firefly, whether a beginner or expert, Firefly Aerospace's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Firefly Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Firefly. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Firefly Aerospace's price trends.Firefly Aerospace Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Firefly Aerospace stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Firefly Aerospace could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Firefly Aerospace by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Firefly Aerospace Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Firefly Aerospace stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Firefly Aerospace shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Firefly Aerospace stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Firefly Aerospace Common entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 285309.0 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.62) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.94 | |||
| Day Median Price | 30.53 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 30.07 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (2.30) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (1.79) |
Firefly Aerospace Risk Indicators
The analysis of Firefly Aerospace's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Firefly Aerospace's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting firefly stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 5.47 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 6.54 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 7.28 | |||
| Variance | 52.97 | |||
| Downside Variance | 44.56 | |||
| Semi Variance | 42.83 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (6.01) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Firefly Aerospace
The number of cover stories for Firefly Aerospace depends on current market conditions and Firefly Aerospace's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Firefly Aerospace is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Firefly Aerospace's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Firefly Aerospace Short Properties
Firefly Aerospace's future price predictability will typically decrease when Firefly Aerospace's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Firefly Aerospace Common often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Firefly Aerospace's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Firefly Aerospace's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 143.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 123.4 M |
Additional Tools for Firefly Stock Analysis
When running Firefly Aerospace's price analysis, check to measure Firefly Aerospace's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Firefly Aerospace is operating at the current time. Most of Firefly Aerospace's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Firefly Aerospace's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Firefly Aerospace's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Firefly Aerospace to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.