Aar Corp Stock Price Prediction
| AIR Stock | USD 104.06 1.41 1.34% |
Momentum 79
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.92 | EPS Estimate Current Year 4.7071 | EPS Estimate Next Year 5.5029 | Wall Street Target Price 110.6667 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 1.0383 |
Using AAR Corp hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of AAR Corp from the perspective of AAR Corp response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards AAR Corp using AAR Corp's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards AAR using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of AAR Corp's stock price.
AAR Corp Short Interest
An investor who is long AAR Corp may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about AAR Corp and may potentially protect profits, hedge AAR Corp with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 76.0295 | Short Percent 0.0363 | Short Ratio 2.22 | Shares Short Prior Month 1.2 M | 50 Day MA 87.9064 |
AAR Corp Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to AAR Corp's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in AAR. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding AAR can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around AAR Corp. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of AAR Corp's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about AAR Corp.
AAR Corp Implied Volatility | 0.34 |
AAR Corp's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of AAR Corp stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if AAR Corp's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that AAR Corp stock will not fluctuate a lot when AAR Corp's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in AAR Corp to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying AAR because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
AAR Corp after-hype prediction price | USD 104.06 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current AAR contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that AAR Corp will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0213% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With AAR Corp trading at USD 104.06, that is roughly USD 0.0221 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating AAR Corp's daily price movement you should consider acquiring AAR Corp options at the current volatility level of 0.34%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Check out AAR Corp Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. AAR Corp After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of AAR Corp at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in AAR Corp or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of AAR Corp, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
AAR Corp Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting AAR Corp's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on AAR Corp's historical news coverage. AAR Corp's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 102.08 and 106.04, respectively. We have considered AAR Corp's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
AAR Corp is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of AAR Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.
AAR Corp Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as AAR Corp is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading AAR Corp backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with AAR Corp, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.37 | 1.99 | 1.63 | 0.29 | 10 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
104.06 | 104.06 | 0.00 |
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AAR Corp Hype Timeline
On the 29th of January AAR Corp is traded for 104.06. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 1.63, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.29. AAR is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 45.23%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.37%. %. The volatility of related hype on AAR Corp is about 258.11%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 104.35. About 97.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The book value of AAR Corp was presently reported as 39.99. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.41. AAR Corp last dividend was issued on the 27th of March 2020. The entity had 3:2 split on the 24th of February 1998. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 10 days. Check out AAR Corp Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.AAR Corp Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to AAR Corp's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict AAR Corp's future price movements. Getting to know how AAR Corp's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how AAR Corp may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| POWW | Ammo Inc | 0.02 | 7 per month | 2.93 | 0.02 | 5.59 | (4.71) | 14.96 | |
| VSEC | VSE Corporation | 6.97 | 11 per month | 1.87 | 0.07 | 4.45 | (3.15) | 12.12 | |
| FLY | Firefly Aerospace Common | 0.06 | 9 per month | 6.85 | 0.05 | 16.02 | (13.49) | 36.50 | |
| AZZ | AZZ Incorporated | 4.35 | 9 per month | 1.07 | 0.14 | 3.39 | (2.35) | 8.55 | |
| CBZ | CBIZ Inc | (3.68) | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.21) | 3.84 | (4.64) | 14.71 | |
| TEX | Terex | (0.02) | 8 per month | 3.22 | 0.01 | 4.00 | (3.23) | 19.39 | |
| PLUG | Plug Power | 0.34 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 7.91 | (8.36) | 24.67 | |
| TNET | TriNet Group | 0.44 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 3.69 | (3.35) | 9.52 | |
| MATX | Matson Inc | 0.25 | 10 per month | 0.58 | 0.29 | 5.13 | (2.04) | 15.21 | |
| SXI | Standex International | (1.02) | 9 per month | 2.04 | (0.03) | 3.21 | (2.82) | 12.69 |
AAR Corp Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine AAR price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for AAR using various technical indicators. When you analyze AAR charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About AAR Corp Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of AAR Corp stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as AAR Corp, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of AAR Corp based on analysis of AAR Corp hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to AAR Corp's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to AAR Corp's related companies. | 2025 | 2026 (projected) | PTB Ratio | 2.08 | 1.62 | Dividend Yield | 7.7E-5 | 7.3E-5 |
Pair Trading with AAR Corp
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if AAR Corp position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in AAR Corp will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with AAR Stock
| 0.9 | BA | Boeing | PairCorr |
| 0.9 | GD | General Dynamics | PairCorr |
| 0.81 | VOYG | Voyager Technologies | PairCorr |
| 0.74 | CVU | CPI Aerostructures | PairCorr |
| 0.88 | DRS | Leonardo DRS Common | PairCorr |
| 0.82 | FLY | Firefly Aerospace Common | PairCorr |
Moving against AAR Stock
The ability to find closely correlated positions to AAR Corp could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace AAR Corp when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back AAR Corp - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling AAR Corp to buy it.
The correlation of AAR Corp is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as AAR Corp moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if AAR Corp moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for AAR Corp can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Additional Tools for AAR Stock Analysis
When running AAR Corp's price analysis, check to measure AAR Corp's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy AAR Corp is operating at the current time. Most of AAR Corp's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of AAR Corp's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move AAR Corp's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of AAR Corp to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.