FMC Stock Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| FMC Stock | USD 15.80 0.11 0.69% |
FMC Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast FMC stock prices and determine the direction of FMC Corporation's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of FMC's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
The relative strength index (RSI) of FMC's stock price is about 61. This usually indicates that the stock is rather overbought by investors at the present time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling FMC, making its price go up or down. Momentum 61
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.78) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.7577 | EPS Estimate Current Year 2.9494 | EPS Estimate Next Year 2.4421 | Wall Street Target Price 21.0882 |
Using FMC hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of FMC Corporation from the perspective of FMC response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards FMC using FMC's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards FMC using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of FMC's stock price.
FMC Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in FMC's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards FMC. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of FMC stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 30.5587 | Short Percent 0.1194 | Short Ratio 3.28 | Shares Short Prior Month 13.3 M | 50 Day MA 14.2122 |
FMC Relative Strength Index
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of FMC Corporation on the next trading day is expected to be 15.84 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.27 and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.90.FMC Corporation Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to FMC's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in FMC. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding FMC can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around FMC Corporation. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of FMC's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about FMC.
FMC Implied Volatility | 1.15 |
FMC's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of FMC Corporation stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if FMC's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that FMC stock will not fluctuate a lot when FMC's options are near their expiration.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of FMC Corporation on the next trading day is expected to be 15.84 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.27 and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.90. FMC after-hype prediction price | USD 15.8 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of FMC to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current FMC contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that FMC Corporation will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0719% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With FMC trading at USD 15.8, that is roughly USD 0.0114 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating FMC's daily price movement you should consider acquiring FMC Corporation options at the current volatility level of 1.15%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 FMC Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast FMC's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in FMC's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for FMC stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current FMC's open interest, investors have to compare it to FMC's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of FMC is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in FMC. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
FMC Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine FMC price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for FMC using various technical indicators. When you analyze FMC charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
FMC Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 4th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of FMC Corporation on the next trading day is expected to be 15.84 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.27, mean absolute percentage error of 0.12, and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.90.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict FMC Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that FMC's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
FMC Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest FMC | FMC Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
FMC Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting FMC's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. FMC's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 13.31 and 18.37, respectively. We have considered FMC's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of FMC stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent FMC stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0515 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2695 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0195 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 15.9012 |
Predictive Modules for FMC
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as FMC Corporation. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.FMC After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of FMC at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in FMC or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of FMC, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
FMC Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting FMC's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on FMC's historical news coverage. FMC's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 13.29 and 18.31, respectively. We have considered FMC's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
FMC is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of FMC Corporation is based on 3 months time horizon.
FMC Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as FMC is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading FMC backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with FMC, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.32 | 2.53 | 0.23 | 0.02 | 4 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 4 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
15.80 | 15.80 | 0.00 |
|
FMC Hype Timeline
On the 3rd of February FMC Corporation is traded for 15.80. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.23, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.02. FMC is expected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is expected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.32%. %. The volatility of related hype on FMC is about 4362.07%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 15.78. About 90.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.52. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. FMC Corporation has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.31. The entity recorded a loss per share of 3.85. The firm last dividend was issued on the 31st of December 2025. FMC had 1153:1000 split on the 4th of March 2019. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next expected press release will be in about 4 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of FMC to cross-verify your projections.FMC Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to FMC's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict FMC's future price movements. Getting to know how FMC's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how FMC may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CC | Chemours Co | (0.22) | 11 per month | 2.81 | 0.06 | 5.97 | (4.61) | 16.17 | |
| AAUC | Allied Gold | (0.08) | 9 per month | 3.02 | 0.25 | 6.21 | (4.32) | 17.83 | |
| MTX | Minerals Technologies | (1.07) | 9 per month | 1.02 | 0.15 | 3.06 | (1.76) | 5.23 | |
| IOSP | Innospec | 0.04 | 9 per month | 1.07 | 0.07 | 2.71 | (2.12) | 7.38 | |
| NGVT | Ingevity Corp | 0.71 | 11 per month | 3.06 | 0.08 | 3.83 | (3.45) | 18.74 | |
| SKE | Skeena Resources | 0.44 | 6 per month | 3.07 | 0.25 | 6.44 | (4.49) | 23.05 | |
| ARMN | Aris Mining | (0.18) | 6 per month | 3.38 | 0.26 | 8.12 | (3.89) | 14.36 | |
| HUN | Huntsman | 0.55 | 9 per month | 2.68 | 0.07 | 5.91 | (5.12) | 15.80 | |
| ELVR | Sayona Mining Limited | (0.12) | 16 per month | 4.72 | 0.19 | 9.90 | (6.81) | 31.67 | |
| USAR | USA Rare Earth | (0.65) | 9 per month | 6.44 | 0.05 | 12.13 | (12.35) | 37.41 |
Other Forecasting Options for FMC
For every potential investor in FMC, whether a beginner or expert, FMC's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. FMC Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in FMC. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying FMC's price trends.FMC Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with FMC stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of FMC could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing FMC by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
FMC Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how FMC stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading FMC shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying FMC stock market strength indicators, traders can identify FMC Corporation entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
FMC Risk Indicators
The analysis of FMC's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in FMC's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting fmc stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.74 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 6.34 | |||
| Variance | 40.24 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for FMC
The number of cover stories for FMC depends on current market conditions and FMC's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that FMC is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about FMC's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
FMC Short Properties
FMC's future price predictability will typically decrease when FMC's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of FMC Corporation often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential FMC's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. FMC's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 125.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 357.3 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of FMC to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Equity Analysis module to research over 250,000 global equities including funds, stocks and ETFs to find investment opportunities.
Will Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals sector continue expanding? Could FMC diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of FMC. Market participants price FMC higher when confident in its future expansion prospects. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every FMC data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.78) | Dividend Share 2.32 | Earnings Share (3.85) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.49) |
FMC Corporation's market price often diverges from its book value, the accounting figure shown on FMC's balance sheet. Smart investors calculate FMC's intrinsic value - its true economic worth - which may differ significantly from both market price and book value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Since FMC's trading price responds to investor sentiment, macroeconomic conditions, and market psychology, it can swing far from fundamental value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between FMC's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if FMC is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, FMC's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.