Farmers Merchants OTC Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| FMCB Stock | USD 1,036 4.25 0.41% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Farmers Merchants Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 1,037 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.94 and the sum of the absolute errors of 236.56. Farmers OTC Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Farmers Merchants stock prices and determine the direction of Farmers Merchants Bancorp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Farmers Merchants' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Farmers |
Farmers Merchants Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 25th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Farmers Merchants Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 1,037 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.94, mean absolute percentage error of 219.69, and the sum of the absolute errors of 236.56.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Farmers OTC Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Farmers Merchants' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Farmers Merchants OTC Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Farmers Merchants | Farmers Merchants Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Farmers Merchants Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Farmers Merchants' OTC Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Farmers Merchants' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 1,035 and 1,038, respectively. We have considered Farmers Merchants' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Farmers Merchants otc stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Farmers Merchants otc stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 121.6649 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -2.5801 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 3.9427 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0038 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 236.559 |
Predictive Modules for Farmers Merchants
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Farmers Merchants Bancorp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the otc stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the otc stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Farmers Merchants' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Farmers Merchants
For every potential investor in Farmers, whether a beginner or expert, Farmers Merchants' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Farmers OTC Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Farmers. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Farmers Merchants' price trends.Farmers Merchants Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Farmers Merchants otc stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Farmers Merchants could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Farmers Merchants by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Farmers Merchants Bancorp Technical and Predictive Analytics
The otc stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Farmers Merchants' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Farmers Merchants' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Farmers Merchants Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Farmers Merchants otc stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Farmers Merchants shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Farmers Merchants otc stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Farmers Merchants Bancorp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Farmers Merchants Risk Indicators
The analysis of Farmers Merchants' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Farmers Merchants' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting farmers otc stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.5162 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.7111 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.61 | |||
| Variance | 2.58 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.47 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.5056 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.64) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Farmers OTC Stock
When determining whether Farmers Merchants Bancorp offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Farmers Merchants' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Farmers Merchants Bancorp Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Farmers Merchants Bancorp Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Farmers Merchants to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Farmers Merchants Bancorp information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Farmers Merchants' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Equity Search module to search for actively traded equities including funds and ETFs from over 30 global markets.