Farmers Merchants OTC Stock Forecast - Simple Moving Average
| FMCB Stock | USD 1,112 2.74 0.25% |
Farmers OTC Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Farmers Merchants stock prices and determine the direction of Farmers Merchants Bancorp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Farmers Merchants' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time, The value of RSI of Farmers Merchants' share price is at 56. This usually indicates that the otc stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Farmers Merchants, making its price go up or down. Momentum 56
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
It is a matter of debate whether otc price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Farmers Merchants based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. Using Farmers Merchants hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Farmers Merchants Bancorp from the perspective of Farmers Merchants response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Farmers Merchants Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 1,112 with a mean absolute deviation of 8.71 and the sum of the absolute errors of 514.16. Farmers Merchants after-hype prediction price | USD 1112.26 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as otc price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Farmers |
Farmers Merchants Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Farmers price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Farmers using various technical indicators. When you analyze Farmers charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Farmers Merchants Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 29th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Farmers Merchants Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 1,112 with a mean absolute deviation of 8.71, mean absolute percentage error of 141.73, and the sum of the absolute errors of 514.16.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Farmers OTC Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Farmers Merchants' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Farmers Merchants OTC Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Farmers Merchants | Farmers Merchants Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Farmers Merchants Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Farmers Merchants' OTC Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Farmers Merchants' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 1,111 and 1,113, respectively. We have considered Farmers Merchants' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Farmers Merchants otc stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Farmers Merchants otc stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.3887 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -2.894 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 8.7145 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0081 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 514.155 |
Predictive Modules for Farmers Merchants
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Farmers Merchants Bancorp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the otc stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the otc stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Farmers Merchants' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Farmers Merchants After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Farmers Merchants at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Farmers Merchants or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of OTC Stock prices, such as prices of Farmers Merchants, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Farmers Merchants Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Farmers Merchants' otc stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Farmers Merchants' historical news coverage. Farmers Merchants' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 1,111 and 1,113, respectively. We have considered Farmers Merchants' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Farmers Merchants is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Farmers Merchants Bancorp is based on 3 months time horizon.
Farmers Merchants OTC Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a OTC Stock such as Farmers Merchants is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Farmers Merchants backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the OTC price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Farmers Merchants, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.18 | 1.14 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 9 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
1,112 | 1,112 | 0.00 |
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Farmers Merchants Hype Timeline
Farmers Merchants Bancorp is currently traded for 1,112. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. Farmers is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.18%. %. The volatility of related hype on Farmers Merchants is about 2137.5%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 1,112. About 30.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.63. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Farmers Merchants Bancorp recorded earning per share (EPS) of 90.69. The entity last dividend was issued on the 6th of December 2022. The firm had 105:100 split on the 19th of April 2005. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Farmers Merchants to cross-verify your projections.Farmers Merchants Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Farmers Merchants' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Farmers Merchants' future price movements. Getting to know how Farmers Merchants' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Farmers Merchants may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SBNC | Southern BancShares NC | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.75 | 0.14 | 3.77 | (0.06) | 11.10 | |
| GKSGF | Grenke AG | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 20.60 | |
| HBIA | Hills Bancorporation | 0.12 | 3 per month | 0.71 | (0.03) | 1.96 | (0.92) | 6.08 | |
| RCBC | River City Bank | 0.12 | 13 per month | 21.96 | 0.22 | 900.00 | (89.87) | 990.02 | |
| WTBFB | WTB Financial | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.21 | 0.16 | 1.37 | (1.18) | 7.87 | |
| HACBY | Hachijuni Bank Ltd | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.12 | 1.03 | 0.00 | 31.60 | |
| GRCGF | Guardian Capital Group | 0.12 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.24) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.77 | |
| EFGZF | EFG Hermes Holding SAE | 0.12 | 12 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| SPXXF | SpareBank 1 Nord Norge | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Other Forecasting Options for Farmers Merchants
For every potential investor in Farmers, whether a beginner or expert, Farmers Merchants' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Farmers OTC Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Farmers. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Farmers Merchants' price trends.Farmers Merchants Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Farmers Merchants otc stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Farmers Merchants could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Farmers Merchants by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Farmers Merchants Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Farmers Merchants otc stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Farmers Merchants shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Farmers Merchants otc stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Farmers Merchants Bancorp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 0.0045 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.55) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 1112.51 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 1112.42 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 4.99 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (1.62) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (2.74) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 56.61 |
Farmers Merchants Risk Indicators
The analysis of Farmers Merchants' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Farmers Merchants' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting farmers otc stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.7972 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.6452 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.12 | |||
| Variance | 1.25 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.23 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.4163 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.11) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Farmers Merchants
The number of cover stories for Farmers Merchants depends on current market conditions and Farmers Merchants' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Farmers Merchants is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Farmers Merchants' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Farmers Merchants Short Properties
Farmers Merchants' future price predictability will typically decrease when Farmers Merchants' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Farmers Merchants Bancorp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Farmers Merchants' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Farmers Merchants' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 789.6 K | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 715.5 M |
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Farmers OTC Stock
When determining whether Farmers Merchants Bancorp offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Farmers Merchants' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Farmers Merchants Bancorp Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Farmers Merchants Bancorp Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Farmers Merchants to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Farmers Merchants Bancorp information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Farmers Merchants' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Balance Of Power module to check stock momentum by analyzing Balance Of Power indicator and other technical ratios.