Farmers National Stock Forward View - Simple Regression
| FMNB Stock | USD 12.98 0.13 1.01% |
Farmers Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Farmers National stock prices and determine the direction of Farmers National Banc's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Farmers National's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time, the relative strength index (RSI) of Farmers National's share price is approaching 44. This usually indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Farmers National, making its price go up or down. Momentum 44
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.035 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.4767 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.705 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.86 | Wall Street Target Price 15 |
Using Farmers National hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Farmers National Banc from the perspective of Farmers National response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Farmers National using Farmers National's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Farmers using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Farmers National's stock price.
Farmers National Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Farmers National's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Farmers. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Farmers National stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 13.7437 | Short Percent 0.0394 | Short Ratio 7.28 | Shares Short Prior Month 1.2 M | 50 Day MA 13.6128 |
Farmers Relative Strength Index
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Farmers National Banc on the next trading day is expected to be 13.54 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.36 and the sum of the absolute errors of 21.95.Farmers National Banc Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Farmers National's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Farmers. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Farmers can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Farmers National Banc. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Farmers National's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Farmers National.
Farmers National Implied Volatility | 1.5 |
Farmers National's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Farmers National Banc stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Farmers National's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Farmers National stock will not fluctuate a lot when Farmers National's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Farmers National Banc on the next trading day is expected to be 13.54 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.36 and the sum of the absolute errors of 21.95. Farmers National after-hype prediction price | USD 12.98 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Farmers National to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Farmers contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Farmers National Banc will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0938% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Farmers National trading at USD 12.98, that is roughly USD 0.0122 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Farmers National's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Farmers National Banc options at the current volatility level of 1.5%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Farmers Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Farmers National's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Farmers National's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Farmers National stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Farmers National's open interest, investors have to compare it to Farmers National's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Farmers National is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Farmers. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Farmers National Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Farmers price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Farmers using various technical indicators. When you analyze Farmers charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Farmers National Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 3rd of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Farmers National Banc on the next trading day is expected to be 13.54 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.36, mean absolute percentage error of 0.21, and the sum of the absolute errors of 21.95.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Farmers Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Farmers National's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Farmers National Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Farmers National | Farmers National Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Farmers National Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Farmers National's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Farmers National's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 11.92 and 15.16, respectively. We have considered Farmers National's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Farmers National stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Farmers National stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.5648 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3598 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0265 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 21.9452 |
Predictive Modules for Farmers National
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Farmers National Banc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Farmers National After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Farmers National at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Farmers National or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Farmers National, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Farmers National Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Farmers National's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Farmers National's historical news coverage. Farmers National's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 11.36 and 14.60, respectively. We have considered Farmers National's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Farmers National is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Farmers National Banc is based on 3 months time horizon.
Farmers National Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Farmers National is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Farmers National backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Farmers National, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.03 | 1.62 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 9 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
12.98 | 12.98 | 0.00 |
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Farmers National Hype Timeline
Farmers National Banc is currently traded for 12.98. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Farmers is estimated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is estimated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.03%. %. The volatility of related hype on Farmers National is about 2531.25%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 12.98. About 42.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.0. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Farmers National Banc last dividend was issued on the 13th of February 2026. The entity had 102:100 split on the 9th of November 2004. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next estimated press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Farmers National to cross-verify your projections.Farmers National Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Farmers National's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Farmers National's future price movements. Getting to know how Farmers National's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Farmers National may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| NRIM | Northrim BanCorp | 0.11 | 9 per month | 3.21 | 0.03 | 4.46 | (3.09) | 21.03 | |
| BHB | Bar Harbor Bankshares | 0.13 | 7 per month | 1.34 | 0.10 | 3.28 | (2.17) | 8.32 | |
| AROW | Arrow Financial | (0.20) | 7 per month | 1.24 | 0.17 | 3.59 | (2.89) | 9.60 | |
| TCBX | Third Coast Bancshares | (0.47) | 10 per month | 1.45 | 0.04 | 3.27 | (2.53) | 9.59 | |
| CBNK | Capital Bancorp | (1.09) | 9 per month | 1.26 | 0.03 | 2.67 | (2.02) | 8.39 | |
| SHBI | Shore Bancshares | (0.31) | 15 per month | 1.08 | 0.16 | 3.11 | (1.67) | 8.64 | |
| MSBI | Midland States Bancorp | (0.33) | 10 per month | 1.79 | 0.18 | 6.49 | (1.83) | 14.42 | |
| UNTY | Unity Bancorp | 0.70 | 8 per month | 1.40 | 0.1 | 3.33 | (2.89) | 7.55 | |
| ACNB | ACNB Corporation | 1.41 | 11 per month | 1.19 | 0.11 | 2.50 | (2.28) | 7.30 | |
| PFIS | Peoples Fin | 0.69 | 8 per month | 1.53 | 0.07 | 3.04 | (2.33) | 8.79 |
Other Forecasting Options for Farmers National
For every potential investor in Farmers, whether a beginner or expert, Farmers National's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Farmers Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Farmers. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Farmers National's price trends.Farmers National Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Farmers National stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Farmers National could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Farmers National by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Farmers National Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Farmers National stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Farmers National shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Farmers National stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Farmers National Banc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Farmers National Risk Indicators
The analysis of Farmers National's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Farmers National's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting farmers stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.15 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.67 | |||
| Variance | 2.77 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Farmers National
The number of cover stories for Farmers National depends on current market conditions and Farmers National's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Farmers National is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Farmers National's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Farmers National to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Global Markets Map module to get a quick overview of global market snapshot using zoomable world map. Drill down to check world indexes.
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Farmers National. Market participants price Farmers higher when confident in its future expansion prospects. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive Farmers National assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.035 | Dividend Share 0.68 | Earnings Share 1.46 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.067 |
Understanding Farmers National Banc requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects Farmers's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value—what Farmers National's is actually worth based on fundamentals—guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push Farmers National's price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Farmers National's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Farmers National is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. In contrast, Farmers National's trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.