Fox Factory Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| FOXF Stock | USD 32.43 0.21 0.65% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Fox Factory Holding on the next trading day is expected to be 31.16 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.00 and the sum of the absolute errors of 61.27. Fox Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Fox Factory's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Fox |
Fox Factory Cash Forecast
Predicting cash flow or other financial metrics requires analysts to utilize a variety of statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools help uncover hidden patterns in the Fox Factory's financial statements, enabling forecasts of their impact on future stock prices.
Cash | First Reported 2011-12-31 | Previous Quarter 82.2 M | Current Value 89.2 M | Quarterly Volatility 87.3 M |
Fox Factory Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 26th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Fox Factory Holding on the next trading day is expected to be 31.16 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.00, mean absolute percentage error of 1.65, and the sum of the absolute errors of 61.27.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Fox Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Fox Factory's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Fox Factory Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Fox Factory | Fox Factory Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Fox Factory Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Fox Factory's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Fox Factory's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 28.50 and 33.81, respectively. We have considered Fox Factory's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Fox Factory stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Fox Factory stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.6093 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.0045 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0263 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 61.2727 |
Predictive Modules for Fox Factory
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Fox Factory Holding. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Fox Factory's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Fox Factory
For every potential investor in Fox, whether a beginner or expert, Fox Factory's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Fox Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Fox. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Fox Factory's price trends.Fox Factory Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Fox Factory stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Fox Factory could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Fox Factory by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Fox Factory Holding Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Fox Factory's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Fox Factory's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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Fox Factory Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Fox Factory stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Fox Factory shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Fox Factory stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Fox Factory Holding entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Fox Factory Risk Indicators
The analysis of Fox Factory's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Fox Factory's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting fox stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.95 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.69 | |||
| Variance | 7.22 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
When determining whether Fox Factory Holding is a strong investment it is important to analyze Fox Factory's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Fox Factory's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Fox Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Fox Factory to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Odds Of Bankruptcy module to get analysis of equity chance of financial distress in the next 2 years.
Is Automotive Parts & Equipment space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Fox Factory. If investors know Fox will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Fox Factory listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.87) | Earnings Share 0.26 | Revenue Per Share 32.862 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.085 | Return On Assets 0.0219 |
The market value of Fox Factory Holding is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Fox that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Fox Factory's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Fox Factory's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Fox Factory's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Fox Factory's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Fox Factory's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Fox Factory is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Fox Factory's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.