Foresight Group Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| FSG Stock | 438.00 1.00 0.23% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Foresight Group Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 438.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.63 and the sum of the absolute errors of 337.67. Foresight Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Foresight Group stock prices and determine the direction of Foresight Group Holdings's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Foresight Group's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time the relative strength index (rsi) of Foresight Group's share price is below 20 . This usually indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.491 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.4238 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.5129 | Wall Street Target Price 614.143 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.114 |
Using Foresight Group hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Foresight Group Holdings from the perspective of Foresight Group response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Foresight Group Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 438.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.63 and the sum of the absolute errors of 337.67. Foresight Group after-hype prediction price | GBX 438.07 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Foresight |
Foresight Group Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Foresight price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Foresight using various technical indicators. When you analyze Foresight charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Foresight Group Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 26th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Foresight Group Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 438.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.63, mean absolute percentage error of 81.10, and the sum of the absolute errors of 337.67.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Foresight Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Foresight Group's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Foresight Group Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Foresight Group | Foresight Group Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Foresight Group Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Foresight Group's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Foresight Group's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 436.00 and 440.00, respectively. We have considered Foresight Group's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Foresight Group stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Foresight Group stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 120.6683 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.1935 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 5.6278 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0129 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 337.67 |
Predictive Modules for Foresight Group
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Foresight Group Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Foresight Group After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Foresight Group at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Foresight Group or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Foresight Group, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Foresight Group Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Foresight Group's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Foresight Group's historical news coverage. Foresight Group's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 436.07 and 440.07, respectively. We have considered Foresight Group's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Foresight Group is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Foresight Group Holdings is based on 3 months time horizon.
Foresight Group Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Foresight Group is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Foresight Group backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Foresight Group, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.05 | 2.00 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 8 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
438.00 | 438.07 | 0.02 |
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Foresight Group Hype Timeline
Foresight Group Holdings is currently traded for 438.00on London Exchange of UK. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.07, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.07. Foresight is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 438.07 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 135.14%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 0.02%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.05%. The volatility of related hype on Foresight Group is about 147.33%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 437.93. The company reported the revenue of 153.99 M. Net Income was 40.7 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 151.9 M. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Foresight Group to cross-verify your projections.Foresight Group Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Foresight Group's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Foresight Group's future price movements. Getting to know how Foresight Group's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Foresight Group may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| 0MKO | Melia Hotels | 0.09 | 3 per month | 1.26 | (0.01) | 1.82 | (2.58) | 5.20 | |
| 0LIY | United Rentals | 5.36 | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 4.22 | (2.82) | 11.06 | |
| 0R96 | Flow Traders NV | 0.14 | 5 per month | 1.53 | (0) | 1.81 | (1.55) | 7.72 | |
| CLA | CAP LEASE AVIATION | 0.00 | 3 per month | 0.00 | 0.25 | 8.33 | (3.51) | 22.06 | |
| 0YTR | Wyndham Hotels Resorts | 0.53 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 3.41 | (2.47) | 7.60 | |
| 0QYJ | Salesforce | (18.28) | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 2.89 | (2.95) | 11.83 | |
| CRN | Cairn Homes PLC | 1.80 | 6 per month | 1.28 | 0.06 | 2.32 | (1.84) | 6.25 | |
| MWE | MTI Wireless Edge | (0.50) | 2 per month | 1.67 | 0.14 | 6.25 | (3.03) | 16.14 |
Other Forecasting Options for Foresight Group
For every potential investor in Foresight, whether a beginner or expert, Foresight Group's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Foresight Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Foresight. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Foresight Group's price trends.Foresight Group Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Foresight Group stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Foresight Group could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Foresight Group by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Foresight Group Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Foresight Group stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Foresight Group shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Foresight Group stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Foresight Group Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Foresight Group Risk Indicators
The analysis of Foresight Group's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Foresight Group's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting foresight stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.23 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.96 | |||
| Variance | 3.84 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Foresight Group
The number of cover stories for Foresight Group depends on current market conditions and Foresight Group's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Foresight Group is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Foresight Group's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Foresight Group Short Properties
Foresight Group's future price predictability will typically decrease when Foresight Group's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Foresight Group Holdings often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Foresight Group's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Foresight Group's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 118.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 43.3 M |
Other Information on Investing in Foresight Stock
Foresight Group financial ratios help investors to determine whether Foresight Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Foresight with respect to the benefits of owning Foresight Group security.