1ST SUMMIT Pink Sheet Forward View
| FSMK Stock | USD 38.85 1.86 5.03% |
1ST Pink Sheet outlook is based on your current time horizon.
The relative strength index (RSI) of 1ST SUMMIT's pink sheet price is about 60. This usually indicates that the pink sheet is rather overbought by investors as of now. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling 1ST, making its price go up or down. Momentum 60
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using 1ST SUMMIT hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of 1ST SUMMIT BANCORP from the perspective of 1ST SUMMIT response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of 1ST SUMMIT BANCORP on the next trading day is expected to be 39.67 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.70 and the sum of the absolute errors of 43.23. 1ST SUMMIT after-hype prediction price | USD 38.85 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as pink sheet price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
1ST |
1ST SUMMIT Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine 1ST price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for 1ST using various technical indicators. When you analyze 1ST charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
1ST SUMMIT Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 1st of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of 1ST SUMMIT BANCORP on the next trading day is expected to be 39.67 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.70, mean absolute percentage error of 0.86, and the sum of the absolute errors of 43.23.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict 1ST Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that 1ST SUMMIT's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
1ST SUMMIT Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern
| Backtest 1ST SUMMIT | 1ST SUMMIT Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
1ST SUMMIT Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting 1ST SUMMIT's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. 1ST SUMMIT's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 36.99 and 42.34, respectively. We have considered 1ST SUMMIT's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of 1ST SUMMIT pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent 1ST SUMMIT pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.7959 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.6972 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0193 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 43.2273 |
Predictive Modules for 1ST SUMMIT
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as 1ST SUMMIT BANCORP. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.1ST SUMMIT After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of 1ST SUMMIT at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in 1ST SUMMIT or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Pink Sheet prices, such as prices of 1ST SUMMIT, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
1ST SUMMIT Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting 1ST SUMMIT's pink sheet value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on 1ST SUMMIT's historical news coverage. 1ST SUMMIT's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 36.17 and 41.53, respectively. We have considered 1ST SUMMIT's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
1ST SUMMIT is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of 1ST SUMMIT BANCORP is based on 3 months time horizon.
1ST SUMMIT Pink Sheet Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as 1ST SUMMIT is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading 1ST SUMMIT backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Pink Sheet price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with 1ST SUMMIT, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.48 | 2.68 | 0.01 | 0.54 | 2 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
38.85 | 38.85 | 0.00 |
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1ST SUMMIT Hype Timeline
1ST SUMMIT BANCORP is currently traded for 38.85. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.54. 1ST is expected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is expected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.48%. %. The volatility of related hype on 1ST SUMMIT is about 239.5%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 39.39. The company last dividend was issued on the 15th of June 2022. 1ST SUMMIT BANCORP had 2:1 split on the 20th of April 2022. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be in a few days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of 1ST SUMMIT to cross-verify your projections.1ST SUMMIT Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to 1ST SUMMIT's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict 1ST SUMMIT's future price movements. Getting to know how 1ST SUMMIT's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how 1ST SUMMIT may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SMAL | Summit Bancshares | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.06 | 0.02 | 0.75 | (0.70) | 3.36 | |
| CMHF | Community Heritage Financial | (0.02) | 2 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 1.03 | (1.48) | 4.10 | |
| FBSI | First Bancshares | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.73 | 0.06 | 4.91 | (2.74) | 31.80 | |
| KSBI | KS Bancorp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.14 | 1.31 | (0.88) | 5.19 | |
| SBNY | Signature Bank | 11.23 | 4 per month | 4.60 | 0.09 | 16.00 | (8.33) | 70.46 | |
| MCBK | Madison County Financial | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.66 | 0.07 | 2.08 | (1.67) | 8.36 | |
| JUVF | Juniata Valley Financial | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 1.59 | (3.16) | 6.26 | |
| FBTT | First Bankers Trustshares | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.29 | 2.59 | (0.92) | 8.38 | |
| UWHR | Uwharrie Capital Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.48 | 0.03 | 2.82 | (3.05) | 13.00 | |
| NEFB | Neffs Bancorp | (0.02) | 2 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 0.50 | 0.00 | 2.53 |
Other Forecasting Options for 1ST SUMMIT
For every potential investor in 1ST, whether a beginner or expert, 1ST SUMMIT's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. 1ST Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in 1ST. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying 1ST SUMMIT's price trends.1ST SUMMIT Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with 1ST SUMMIT pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of 1ST SUMMIT could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing 1ST SUMMIT by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
1ST SUMMIT Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how 1ST SUMMIT pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading 1ST SUMMIT shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying 1ST SUMMIT pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify 1ST SUMMIT BANCORP entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
1ST SUMMIT Risk Indicators
The analysis of 1ST SUMMIT's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in 1ST SUMMIT's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting 1st pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.44 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.37 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.53 | |||
| Variance | 6.38 | |||
| Downside Variance | 8.37 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.87 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.23) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for 1ST SUMMIT
The number of cover stories for 1ST SUMMIT depends on current market conditions and 1ST SUMMIT's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that 1ST SUMMIT is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about 1ST SUMMIT's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Other Macroaxis Stories
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1ST SUMMIT Short Properties
1ST SUMMIT's future price predictability will typically decrease when 1ST SUMMIT's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of 1ST SUMMIT BANCORP often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential 1ST SUMMIT's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. 1ST SUMMIT's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Dividend Yield | 0.0125 | |
| Forward Annual Dividend Rate | 0.86 | |
| Shares Float | 1.8 M |
Other Information on Investing in 1ST Pink Sheet
1ST SUMMIT financial ratios help investors to determine whether 1ST Pink Sheet is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in 1ST with respect to the benefits of owning 1ST SUMMIT security.