First Reliance Pink Sheet Forecast - Polynomial Regression
| FSRL Stock | USD 13.19 0.03 0.23% |
First Pink Sheet outlook is based on your current time horizon.
The relative strength index (RSI) of First Reliance's pink sheet price is about 67. This usually indicates that the pink sheet is rather overbought by investors as of now. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling First, making its price go up or down. Momentum 67
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Using First Reliance hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of First Reliance Bancshares from the perspective of First Reliance response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of First Reliance Bancshares on the next trading day is expected to be 13.66 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.26 and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.57. First Reliance after-hype prediction price | USD 13.19 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as pink sheet price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
First |
First Reliance Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine First price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for First using various technical indicators. When you analyze First charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
First Reliance Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 30th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of First Reliance Bancshares on the next trading day is expected to be 13.66 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.26, mean absolute percentage error of 0.09, and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.57.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict First Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that First Reliance's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
First Reliance Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern
| Backtest First Reliance | First Reliance Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
First Reliance Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting First Reliance's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. First Reliance's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 11.93 and 15.39, respectively. We have considered First Reliance's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of First Reliance pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent First Reliance pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.6936 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2552 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0207 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 15.5684 |
Predictive Modules for First Reliance
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as First Reliance Bancshares. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.First Reliance After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of First Reliance at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in First Reliance or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Pink Sheet prices, such as prices of First Reliance, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
First Reliance Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting First Reliance's pink sheet value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on First Reliance's historical news coverage. First Reliance's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 11.46 and 14.92, respectively. We have considered First Reliance's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
First Reliance is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of First Reliance Bancshares is based on 3 months time horizon.
First Reliance Pink Sheet Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as First Reliance is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading First Reliance backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Pink Sheet price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with First Reliance, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.33 | 1.73 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 12 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 12 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
13.19 | 13.19 | 0.00 |
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First Reliance Hype Timeline
First Reliance Bancshares is currently traded for 13.19. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.01. First is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.33%. %. The volatility of related hype on First Reliance is about 5056.92%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 13.18. About 13.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 12 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of First Reliance to cross-verify your projections.First Reliance Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to First Reliance's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict First Reliance's future price movements. Getting to know how First Reliance's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how First Reliance may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Other Forecasting Options for First Reliance
For every potential investor in First, whether a beginner or expert, First Reliance's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. First Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in First. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying First Reliance's price trends.View First Reliance Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
First Reliance Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how First Reliance pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading First Reliance shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying First Reliance pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify First Reliance Bancshares entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
First Reliance Risk Indicators
The analysis of First Reliance's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in First Reliance's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting first pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.13 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.15 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.7 | |||
| Variance | 2.9 | |||
| Downside Variance | 5.08 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.32 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.61) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for First Reliance
The number of cover stories for First Reliance depends on current market conditions and First Reliance's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that First Reliance is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about First Reliance's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Other Information on Investing in First Pink Sheet
First Reliance financial ratios help investors to determine whether First Pink Sheet is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in First with respect to the benefits of owning First Reliance security.