FirstSun Capital OTC Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| FSUN Stock | USD 39.93 0.19 0.48% |
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of FirstSun Capital Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 40.03 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.67 and the sum of the absolute errors of 40.24. FirstSun OTC Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
As of today, The value of RSI of FirstSun Capital's share price is at 54. This usually indicates that the otc stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling FirstSun Capital, making its price go up or down. Momentum 54
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
It is a matter of debate whether otc price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of FirstSun Capital based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. Using FirstSun Capital hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of FirstSun Capital Bancorp from the perspective of FirstSun Capital response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of FirstSun Capital Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 40.03 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.67 and the sum of the absolute errors of 40.24. FirstSun Capital after-hype prediction price | USD 39.93 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as otc price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
FirstSun |
FirstSun Capital Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine FirstSun price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for FirstSun using various technical indicators. When you analyze FirstSun charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
FirstSun Capital Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of FirstSun Capital Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 40.03 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.67, mean absolute percentage error of 1.22, and the sum of the absolute errors of 40.24.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict FirstSun OTC Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that FirstSun Capital's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
FirstSun Capital OTC Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest FirstSun Capital | FirstSun Capital Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
FirstSun Capital Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting FirstSun Capital's OTC Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. FirstSun Capital's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 37.10 and 42.97, respectively. We have considered FirstSun Capital's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of FirstSun Capital otc stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent FirstSun Capital otc stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.1191 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.6706 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0192 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 40.2375 |
Predictive Modules for FirstSun Capital
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as FirstSun Capital Bancorp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the otc stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the otc stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of FirstSun Capital's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
FirstSun Capital After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of FirstSun Capital at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in FirstSun Capital or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of OTC Stock prices, such as prices of FirstSun Capital, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
FirstSun Capital Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting FirstSun Capital's otc stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on FirstSun Capital's historical news coverage. FirstSun Capital's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 37.02 and 42.84, respectively. We have considered FirstSun Capital's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
FirstSun Capital is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of FirstSun Capital Bancorp is based on 3 months time horizon.
FirstSun Capital OTC Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a OTC Stock such as FirstSun Capital is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading FirstSun Capital backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the OTC price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with FirstSun Capital, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.04 | 2.93 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 29 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 29 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
39.93 | 39.93 | 0.00 |
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FirstSun Capital Hype Timeline
FirstSun Capital Bancorp is currently traded for 39.93. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.04. FirstSun is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.04%. %. The volatility of related hype on FirstSun Capital is about 312.7%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 39.89. About 41.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.2. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. FirstSun Capital Bancorp had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 29 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of FirstSun Capital to cross-verify your projections.FirstSun Capital Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to FirstSun Capital's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict FirstSun Capital's future price movements. Getting to know how FirstSun Capital's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how FirstSun Capital may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| TMP | Tompkins Financial | 1.18 | 7 per month | 1.12 | 0.15 | 3.68 | (2.18) | 8.74 | |
| OSBC | Old Second Bancorp | 0.02 | 11 per month | 0.93 | 0.15 | 3.18 | (1.57) | 8.18 | |
| TCBI | Texas Capital Bancshares | (0.28) | 10 per month | 1.00 | 0.18 | 3.41 | (1.82) | 7.09 | |
| BHRB | Burke Herbert Financial | (1.15) | 7 per month | 1.25 | 0.07 | 3.16 | (2.31) | 9.50 | |
| MBIN | Merchants Bancorp | (1.74) | 8 per month | 1.53 | 0.07 | 3.89 | (2.87) | 8.29 | |
| SBSI | Southside Bancshares | (2.23) | 4 per month | 0.62 | 0.18 | 2.73 | (1.34) | 4.70 | |
| FMBH | First Mid Illinois | (2.23) | 8 per month | 0.95 | 0.14 | 3.31 | (1.86) | 6.71 | |
| PEBO | Peoples Bancorp | (0.1) | 11 per month | 0.94 | 0.10 | 3.16 | (1.95) | 6.51 | |
| HAFC | Hanmi Financial | (0.61) | 20 per month | 0.79 | 0.16 | 3.38 | (1.60) | 12.14 | |
| UVSP | Univest Pennsylvania | (2.23) | 18 per month | 0.80 | 0.13 | 3.67 | (1.85) | 6.88 |
Other Forecasting Options for FirstSun Capital
For every potential investor in FirstSun, whether a beginner or expert, FirstSun Capital's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. FirstSun OTC Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in FirstSun. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying FirstSun Capital's price trends.FirstSun Capital Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with FirstSun Capital otc stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of FirstSun Capital could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing FirstSun Capital by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
FirstSun Capital Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how FirstSun Capital otc stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading FirstSun Capital shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying FirstSun Capital otc stock market strength indicators, traders can identify FirstSun Capital Bancorp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
FirstSun Capital Risk Indicators
The analysis of FirstSun Capital's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in FirstSun Capital's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting firstsun otc stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.67 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.36 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.83 | |||
| Variance | 8.0 | |||
| Downside Variance | 12.58 | |||
| Semi Variance | 11.3 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.67) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for FirstSun Capital
The number of cover stories for FirstSun Capital depends on current market conditions and FirstSun Capital's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that FirstSun Capital is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about FirstSun Capital's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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FirstSun Capital Short Properties
FirstSun Capital's future price predictability will typically decrease when FirstSun Capital's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of FirstSun Capital Bancorp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential FirstSun Capital's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. FirstSun Capital's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 24.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.2 B |
Other Information on Investing in FirstSun OTC Stock
FirstSun Capital financial ratios help investors to determine whether FirstSun OTC Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in FirstSun with respect to the benefits of owning FirstSun Capital security.