Forward Air Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| FWRD Stock | USD 28.47 0.10 0.35% |
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Forward Air on the next trading day is expected to be 28.45 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.48 and the sum of the absolute errors of 28.59. Forward Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Forward Air stock prices and determine the direction of Forward Air's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Forward Air's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time the relative strength index (rsi) of Forward Air's share price is below 20 . This usually indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 1.45 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.15) | EPS Estimate Current Year (1.48) | EPS Estimate Next Year (0.21) | Wall Street Target Price 35.6667 |
Using Forward Air hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Forward Air from the perspective of Forward Air response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Forward Air using Forward Air's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Forward using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Forward Air's stock price.
Forward Air Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Forward Air's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Forward. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Forward Air stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 23.4792 | Short Percent 0.1959 | Short Ratio 9.49 | Shares Short Prior Month 4.2 M | 50 Day MA 24.7698 |
Forward Air Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Forward Air's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Forward. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Forward can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Forward Air. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Forward Air Implied Volatility | 0.88 |
Forward Air's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Forward Air stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Forward Air's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Forward Air stock will not fluctuate a lot when Forward Air's options are near their expiration.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Forward Air on the next trading day is expected to be 28.45 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.48 and the sum of the absolute errors of 28.59. Forward Air after-hype prediction price | USD 28.47 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Forward Air to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Forward contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Forward Air will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.055% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Forward Air trading at USD 28.47, that is roughly USD 0.0157 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Forward Air's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Forward Air options at the current volatility level of 0.88%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Forward Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Forward Air's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Forward Air's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Forward Air stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Forward Air's open interest, investors have to compare it to Forward Air's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Forward Air is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Forward. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Forward Air Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Forward price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Forward using various technical indicators. When you analyze Forward charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Forward Air Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 25th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Forward Air on the next trading day is expected to be 28.45 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.48, mean absolute percentage error of 0.50, and the sum of the absolute errors of 28.59.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Forward Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Forward Air's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Forward Air Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Forward Air | Forward Air Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Forward Air Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Forward Air's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Forward Air's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 25.20 and 31.70, respectively. We have considered Forward Air's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Forward Air stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Forward Air stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.1676 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4846 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0207 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 28.59 |
Predictive Modules for Forward Air
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Forward Air. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Forward Air After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Forward Air at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Forward Air or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Forward Air, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Forward Air Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Forward Air's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Forward Air's historical news coverage. Forward Air's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 25.20 and 31.74, respectively. We have considered Forward Air's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Forward Air is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Forward Air is based on 3 months time horizon.
Forward Air Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Forward Air is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Forward Air backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Forward Air, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.65 | 3.25 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 14 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 14 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
28.47 | 28.47 | 0.00 |
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Forward Air Hype Timeline
Forward Air is currently traded for 28.47. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.04, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.04. Forward is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.65%. %. The volatility of related hype on Forward Air is about 4710.14%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 28.43. About 98.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.01. Forward Air recorded a loss per share of 4.05. The entity last dividend was issued on the 21st of November 2023. The firm had 3:2 split on the 4th of April 2005. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 14 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Forward Air to cross-verify your projections.Forward Air Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Forward Air's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Forward Air's future price movements. Getting to know how Forward Air's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Forward Air may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| FIP | FTAI Infrastructure | (0.43) | 10 per month | 3.64 | 0.04 | 7.45 | (6.73) | 18.25 | |
| NX | Quanex Building Products | 0.04 | 10 per month | 2.40 | 0.11 | 6.18 | (4.72) | 14.57 | |
| CODI | Compass Diversified Holdings | 0.05 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 6.89 | (6.87) | 35.68 | |
| TE | T1 Energy | (0.25) | 9 per month | 5.86 | 0.15 | 15.44 | (9.35) | 30.81 | |
| ASPN | Aspen Aerogels | (0.08) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 5.80 | (6.12) | 52.64 | |
| EH | Ehang Holdings | 0.02 | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 5.79 | (5.09) | 17.58 | |
| VSTS | Vestis | 0.02 | 11 per month | 3.21 | 0.14 | 6.21 | (6.30) | 18.68 | |
| CYRX | Cryoport | 0.05 | 6 per month | 3.29 | 0.03 | 4.99 | (4.17) | 18.32 | |
| SNCY | Sun Country Airlines | (0.13) | 7 per month | 1.94 | 0.19 | 6.22 | (4.25) | 13.97 | |
| HTLD | Heartland Express | 0.02 | 26 per month | 1.41 | 0.14 | 5.38 | (2.62) | 10.17 |
Other Forecasting Options for Forward Air
For every potential investor in Forward, whether a beginner or expert, Forward Air's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Forward Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Forward. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Forward Air's price trends.Forward Air Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Forward Air stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Forward Air could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Forward Air by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Forward Air Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Forward Air stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Forward Air shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Forward Air stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Forward Air entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Forward Air Risk Indicators
The analysis of Forward Air's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Forward Air's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting forward stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.2 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.37 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.44 | |||
| Variance | 11.85 | |||
| Downside Variance | 8.42 | |||
| Semi Variance | 5.62 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.39) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Forward Air
The number of cover stories for Forward Air depends on current market conditions and Forward Air's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Forward Air is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Forward Air's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Forward Air Short Properties
Forward Air's future price predictability will typically decrease when Forward Air's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Forward Air often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Forward Air's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Forward Air's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 27.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 104.9 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Forward Air to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Forward Stock refer to our How to Trade Forward Stock guide.You can also try the Correlation Analysis module to reduce portfolio risk simply by holding instruments which are not perfectly correlated.
Is Air Freight & Logistics space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Forward Air. If investors know Forward will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Forward Air listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 1.45 | Earnings Share (4.05) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.04) | Return On Assets |
The market value of Forward Air is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Forward that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Forward Air's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Forward Air's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Forward Air's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Forward Air's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Forward Air's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Forward Air is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Forward Air's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.