Gladstone Investment Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| GAINZ Stock | USD 24.03 0.08 0.33% |
Gladstone Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, The relative strength index (RSI) of Gladstone Investment's share price is at 51. This usually indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Gladstone Investment, making its price go up or down. Momentum 51
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Gladstone Investment hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Gladstone Investment from the perspective of Gladstone Investment response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Gladstone Investment on the next trading day is expected to be 24.02 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.07 and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.13. Gladstone Investment after-hype prediction price | USD 24.03 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
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Gladstone Investment Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Gladstone price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Gladstone using various technical indicators. When you analyze Gladstone charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Gladstone Investment Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 29th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Gladstone Investment on the next trading day is expected to be 24.02 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.07, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.13.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Gladstone Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Gladstone Investment's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Gladstone Investment Stock Forecast Pattern
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Gladstone Investment Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Gladstone Investment's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Gladstone Investment's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 23.64 and 24.39, respectively. We have considered Gladstone Investment's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Gladstone Investment stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Gladstone Investment stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.1578 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0033 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0678 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0028 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 4.1334 |
Predictive Modules for Gladstone Investment
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Gladstone Investment. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Gladstone Investment After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Gladstone Investment at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Gladstone Investment or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Gladstone Investment, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Gladstone Investment Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Gladstone Investment's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Gladstone Investment's historical news coverage. Gladstone Investment's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 23.65 and 24.41, respectively. We have considered Gladstone Investment's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Gladstone Investment is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Gladstone Investment is based on 3 months time horizon.
Gladstone Investment Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Gladstone Investment is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Gladstone Investment backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Gladstone Investment, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.00 | 0.38 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 30 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 30 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
24.03 | 24.03 | 0.00 |
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Gladstone Investment Hype Timeline
Gladstone Investment is currently traded for 24.03. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Gladstone is estimated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 47.5%. The immediate return on the next news is estimated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.0%. %. The volatility of related hype on Gladstone Investment is about 287.88%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 24.03. The company last dividend was issued on the 1st of November 2025. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next estimated press release will be in about 30 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Gladstone Investment to cross-verify your projections.Gladstone Investment Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Gladstone Investment's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Gladstone Investment's future price movements. Getting to know how Gladstone Investment's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Gladstone Investment may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| GAM | General American Investors | 0.80 | 14 per month | 0.32 | 0.07 | 1.04 | (0.83) | 2.57 | |
| CCAP | Crescent Capital BDC | 0.80 | 8 per month | 1.41 | 0.02 | 2.37 | (2.37) | 6.85 | |
| MSIF | MSCome Fund | (0.02) | 4 per month | 1.65 | (0.01) | 2.91 | (2.89) | 11.44 | |
| NEWT | Newtek Business Services | 0.00 | 9 per month | 1.83 | 0.14 | 4.67 | (3.09) | 13.38 | |
| TCPC | BlackRock TCP Capital | (0.11) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 2.62 | (2.35) | 17.70 | |
| CION | Cion Investment Corp | 0.80 | 4 per month | 1.53 | (0.01) | 1.77 | (2.28) | 10.23 | |
| GLAD | Gladstone Capital | (0.18) | 8 per month | 1.06 | 0.05 | 2.09 | (1.72) | 9.50 | |
| CNCK | Coincheck Group NV | (0.64) | 14 per month | 9.40 | 0.02 | 13.73 | (18.78) | 169.72 | |
| PNNT | PennantPark Investment | 0.06 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 2.16 | (2.42) | 7.91 | |
| EIC | Eagle Pointome | (0.19) | 15 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 1.45 | (2.07) | 5.65 |
Other Forecasting Options for Gladstone Investment
For every potential investor in Gladstone, whether a beginner or expert, Gladstone Investment's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Gladstone Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Gladstone. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Gladstone Investment's price trends.Gladstone Investment Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Gladstone Investment stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Gladstone Investment could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Gladstone Investment by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Gladstone Investment Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Gladstone Investment stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Gladstone Investment shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Gladstone Investment stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Gladstone Investment entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Gladstone Investment Risk Indicators
The analysis of Gladstone Investment's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Gladstone Investment's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting gladstone stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.2878 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.3501 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.3725 | |||
| Variance | 0.1388 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.1943 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.1226 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.30) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Gladstone Investment
The number of cover stories for Gladstone Investment depends on current market conditions and Gladstone Investment's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Gladstone Investment is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Gladstone Investment's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Gladstone Investment Short Properties
Gladstone Investment's future price predictability will typically decrease when Gladstone Investment's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Gladstone Investment often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Gladstone Investment's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Gladstone Investment's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Dividend Yield | 0.0531 | |
| Shares Short Prior Month | 1023 |
Additional Tools for Gladstone Stock Analysis
When running Gladstone Investment's price analysis, check to measure Gladstone Investment's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Gladstone Investment is operating at the current time. Most of Gladstone Investment's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Gladstone Investment's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Gladstone Investment's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Gladstone Investment to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.