General American Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| GAM Stock | USD 60.62 0.22 0.36% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of General American Investors on the next trading day is expected to be 60.69 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.36 and the sum of the absolute errors of 22.03. General Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
The value of RSI of General American's stock price is about 62. This usually indicates that the stock is rather overbought by investors as of now. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling General, making its price go up or down. Momentum 62
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using General American hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of General American Investors from the perspective of General American response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of General American Investors on the next trading day is expected to be 60.69 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.36 and the sum of the absolute errors of 22.03. General American after-hype prediction price | USD 60.62 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of General American to cross-verify your projections. General American Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine General price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for General using various technical indicators. When you analyze General charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
General American Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 23rd of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of General American Investors on the next trading day is expected to be 60.69 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.36, mean absolute percentage error of 0.20, and the sum of the absolute errors of 22.03.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict General Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that General American's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
General American Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest General American | General American Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
General American Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting General American's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. General American's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 60.12 and 61.27, respectively. We have considered General American's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of General American stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent General American stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.5146 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3612 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0062 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 22.0309 |
Predictive Modules for General American
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as General American Inv. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.General American After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of General American at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in General American or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of General American, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
General American Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting General American's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on General American's historical news coverage. General American's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 60.05 and 61.19, respectively. We have considered General American's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
General American is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of General American Inv is based on 3 months time horizon.
General American Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as General American is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading General American backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with General American, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.11 | 0.57 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
60.62 | 60.62 | 0.00 |
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General American Hype Timeline
On the 22nd of January General American Inv is traded for 60.62. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.03. General is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.11%. %. The volatility of related hype on General American is about 248.91%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 60.59. About 32.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.95. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. General American Inv recorded earning per share (EPS) of 8.89. The entity last dividend was issued on the 17th of November 2025. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in a few days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of General American to cross-verify your projections.General American Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to General American's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict General American's future price movements. Getting to know how General American's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how General American may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CET | Central Securities | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.47 | 0.03 | 1.13 | (1.02) | 3.06 | |
| OXLC | Oxford Lane Capital | (0.10) | 4 per month | 1.59 | (0.02) | 2.51 | (2.41) | 9.22 | |
| FSCO | FS Credit Opportunities | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.33 | (0.07) | 2.10 | (2.44) | 5.90 | |
| VRTS | Virtus Investment Partners | (2.19) | 13 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 2.94 | (3.38) | 8.72 | |
| TY | Tri Continental Closed | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 1.04 | (0.89) | 7.86 | |
| FRME | First Merchants | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.09 | 0.02 | 2.08 | (1.50) | 6.00 | |
| GSBD | Goldman Sachs BDC | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.06 | (0.09) | 1.88 | (1.93) | 4.85 | |
| MBIN | Merchants Bancorp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.60 | 0.03 | 3.89 | (2.87) | 8.29 | |
| MSDL | Morgan Stanley Direct | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 1.82 | (1.84) | 6.37 | |
| AAMI | Acadian Asset Management | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.16 | 0.07 | 3.38 | (3.22) | 9.38 |
Other Forecasting Options for General American
For every potential investor in General, whether a beginner or expert, General American's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. General Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in General. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying General American's price trends.General American Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with General American stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of General American could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing General American by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
General American Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how General American stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading General American shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying General American stock market strength indicators, traders can identify General American Investors entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
General American Risk Indicators
The analysis of General American's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in General American's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting general stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.4715 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.3402 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.5749 | |||
| Variance | 0.3305 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.2794 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.1158 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.53) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for General American
The number of cover stories for General American depends on current market conditions and General American's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that General American is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about General American's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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General American Short Properties
General American's future price predictability will typically decrease when General American's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of General American Investors often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential General American's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. General American's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 21.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 69.6 K | |
| Forward Annual Dividend Rate | 0.45 | |
| Shares Float | 20.4 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of General American to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Equity Analysis module to research over 250,000 global equities including funds, stocks and ETFs to find investment opportunities.
Is Stock space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of General American. If investors know General will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about General American listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of General American Inv is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of General that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of General American's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is General American's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because General American's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect General American's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between General American's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if General American is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, General American's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.