Global Indemnity Stock Forward View

GBLI Stock  USD 28.44  0.13  0.46%   
Global Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Global Indemnity's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 5th of February 2026 the relative strength indicator of Global Indemnity's share price is below 20 . This usually indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Global Indemnity's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Global Indemnity Group, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Global Indemnity's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.07)
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
0.81
EPS Estimate Current Year
2.17
EPS Estimate Next Year
3.37
Wall Street Target Price
55
Using Global Indemnity hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Global Indemnity Group from the perspective of Global Indemnity response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Global Indemnity Group on the next trading day is expected to be 28.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.30 and the sum of the absolute errors of 18.54.

Global Indemnity after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 28.56  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Global Indemnity to cross-verify your projections.

Global Indemnity Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Global price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Global using various technical indicators. When you analyze Global charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

Global Indemnity Cash Forecast

Predicting cash flow or other financial metrics requires analysts to utilize a variety of statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools help uncover hidden patterns in the Global Indemnity's financial statements, enabling forecasts of their impact on future stock prices.
 
Cash  
First Reported
2001-12-31
Previous Quarter
67.3 M
Current Value
75.4 M
Quarterly Volatility
79.8 M
 
Housing Crash
 
Credit Downgrade
 
Yuan Drop
 
Covid
 
Interest Hikes
A naive forecasting model for Global Indemnity is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Global Indemnity Group value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Global Indemnity Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 6th of February

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Global Indemnity Group on the next trading day is expected to be 28.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.30, mean absolute percentage error of 0.15, and the sum of the absolute errors of 18.54.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Global Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Global Indemnity's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Global Indemnity Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Global Indemnity  Global Indemnity Price Prediction  Research Analysis  

Global Indemnity Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Global Indemnity's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Global Indemnity's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 26.60 and 29.39, respectively. We have considered Global Indemnity's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
28.44
28.00
Expected Value
29.39
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Global Indemnity stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Global Indemnity stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria116.2093
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.3039
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0109
SAESum of the absolute errors18.5362
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Global Indemnity Group. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Global Indemnity. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Global Indemnity

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Global Indemnity. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
27.1528.5629.97
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
25.7135.0736.48
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
26.9328.2329.54
Details
0 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
50.0555.0061.05
Details

Global Indemnity After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Global Indemnity at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Global Indemnity or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Global Indemnity, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Global Indemnity Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Global Indemnity's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Global Indemnity's historical news coverage. Global Indemnity's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 27.15 and 29.97, respectively. We have considered Global Indemnity's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
28.44
28.56
After-hype Price
29.97
Upside
Global Indemnity is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Global Indemnity is based on 3 months time horizon.

Global Indemnity Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Global Indemnity is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Global Indemnity backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Global Indemnity, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.01 
1.40
 0.00  
 0.00  
8 Events / Month
4 Events / Month
In about 8 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
28.44
28.56
0.04 
285.71  
Notes

Global Indemnity Hype Timeline

Global Indemnity is currently traded for 28.44. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Global is expected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 28.56. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.04%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.01%. The volatility of related hype on Global Indemnity is about 398.86%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 28.44. About 35.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.6. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Global Indemnity last dividend was issued on the 22nd of December 2025. The entity had 1:2 split on the 6th of July 2010. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be in about 8 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Global Indemnity to cross-verify your projections.

Global Indemnity Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Global Indemnity's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Global Indemnity's future price movements. Getting to know how Global Indemnity's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Global Indemnity may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
GLREGreenlight Capital Re 0.28 9 per month 1.31  0.14  3.13 (2.36) 6.55 
AIIAmerican Integrity Insurance 0.08 9 per month 0.00 (0.17) 3.15 (4.06) 13.77 
MCIBarings Corporate Investors 0.00 0 per month 1.10  0.02  2.26 (1.93) 8.35 
COFSChoiceOne Financial Services(0.37)7 per month 1.65  0.04  3.72 (2.94) 10.14 
FBIZFirst Business Financial 2.18 8 per month 0.95  0.16  3.35 (1.91) 8.36 
NFBKNorthfield Bancorp 0.07 8 per month 1.00  0.19  3.73 (2.43) 13.02 
CIVBCivista Bancshares 1.45 35 per month 1.07  0.12  2.78 (2.13) 7.78 
PNNTPennantPark Investment 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.11) 2.16 (2.60) 7.91 
HBCPHome Bancorp(0.13)7 per month 1.23  0.12  3.62 (1.95) 9.63 
KRNYKearny Financial Corp(0.05)9 per month 0.93  0.20  4.45 (1.96) 9.83 

Other Forecasting Options for Global Indemnity

For every potential investor in Global, whether a beginner or expert, Global Indemnity's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Global Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Global. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Global Indemnity's price trends.

Global Indemnity Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Global Indemnity stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Global Indemnity could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Global Indemnity by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Global Indemnity Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Global Indemnity stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Global Indemnity shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Global Indemnity stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Global Indemnity Group entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Global Indemnity Risk Indicators

The analysis of Global Indemnity's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Global Indemnity's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting global stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Global Indemnity

The number of cover stories for Global Indemnity depends on current market conditions and Global Indemnity's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Global Indemnity is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Global Indemnity's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Global Indemnity Short Properties

Global Indemnity's future price predictability will typically decrease when Global Indemnity's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Global Indemnity Group often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Global Indemnity's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Global Indemnity's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding13.7 M
Cash And Short Term Investments1.2 B
When determining whether Global Indemnity offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Global Indemnity's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Global Indemnity Group Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Global Indemnity Group Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Global Indemnity to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Equity Analysis module to research over 250,000 global equities including funds, stocks and ETFs to find investment opportunities.
Is there potential for Property & Casualty Insurance market expansion? Will Global introduce new products? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Global Indemnity. Market participants price Global higher when confident in its future expansion prospects. Understanding fair value requires weighing current performance against future potential. All the valuation information about Global Indemnity listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.07)
Dividend Share
1.4
Earnings Share
1.94
Revenue Per Share
31.477
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.022
The market value of Global Indemnity is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Global that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Global Indemnity's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Global Indemnity's true underlying value. Analysts utilize numerous techniques to assess fundamental value, seeking to purchase shares when trading prices fall beneath estimated intrinsic worth. Because Global Indemnity's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Global Indemnity's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Global Indemnity's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Global Indemnity is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. Meanwhile, Global Indemnity's quoted price indicates the marketplace figure where supply meets demand through bilateral consent.