Global Business Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| GBTG Stock | USD 7.26 0.31 4.10% |
Global Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Global Business' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 27th of January 2026, the relative strength indicator of Global Business' share price is approaching 42. This usually indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Global Business, making its price go up or down. Momentum 42
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.51) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.1125 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.4764 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.4279 | Wall Street Target Price 10.8571 |
Using Global Business hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Global Business Travel from the perspective of Global Business response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Global Business using Global Business' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Global using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Global Business' stock price.
Global Business Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Global Business' short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Global. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Global Business stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 7.2553 | Short Percent 0.0519 | Short Ratio 5.36 | Shares Short Prior Month 8.4 M | 50 Day MA 7.682 |
Global Relative Strength Index
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Global Business Travel on the next trading day is expected to be 7.15 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.21 and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.65.Global Business Travel Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Global Business' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Global. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Global can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Global Business Travel. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Global Business' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Global Business.
Global Business Implied Volatility | 1.31 |
Global Business' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Global Business Travel stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Global Business' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Global Business stock will not fluctuate a lot when Global Business' options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Global Business Travel on the next trading day is expected to be 7.15 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.21 and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.65. Global Business after-hype prediction price | USD 7.26 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Global Business to cross-verify your projections. Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Global Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Global Business' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Global Business' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Global Business stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Global Business' open interest, investors have to compare it to Global Business' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Global Business is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Global. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Global Business Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Global price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Global using various technical indicators. When you analyze Global charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Global Business Cash Forecast
Predicting cash flow or other financial metrics requires analysts to utilize a variety of statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools help uncover hidden patterns in the Global Business' financial statements, enabling forecasts of their impact on future stock prices.
Cash | First Reported 2020-12-31 | Previous Quarter 601 M | Current Value 427 M | Quarterly Volatility 183.8 M |
Global Business Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 28th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Global Business Travel on the next trading day is expected to be 7.15 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.21, mean absolute percentage error of 0.06, and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.65.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Global Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Global Business' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Global Business Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Global Business | Global Business Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Global Business Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Global Business' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Global Business' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 4.46 and 9.83, respectively. We have considered Global Business' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Global Business stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Global Business stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.3196 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2073 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0271 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 12.6472 |
Predictive Modules for Global Business
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Global Business Travel. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Global Business' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Global Business After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Global Business at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Global Business or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Global Business, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Global Business Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Global Business' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Global Business' historical news coverage. Global Business' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 4.56 and 9.96, respectively. We have considered Global Business' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Global Business is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Global Business Travel is based on 3 months time horizon.
Global Business Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Global Business is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Global Business backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Global Business, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.09 | 2.69 | 0.02 | 0.07 | 9 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
7.26 | 7.26 | 0.00 |
|
Global Business Hype Timeline
Global Business Travel is currently traded for 7.26. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.07. Global is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.09%. %. The volatility of related hype on Global Business is about 370.52%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 7.33. About 57.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The book value of Global Business was currently reported as 2.91. The company had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Global Business to cross-verify your projections.Global Business Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Global Business' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Global Business' future price movements. Getting to know how Global Business' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Global Business may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| NAVN | Navan Class A | 3.38 | 31 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 9.63 | (10.70) | 21.66 | |
| VERX | Vertex | 0.15 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 3.45 | (4.81) | 10.98 | |
| VIA | Via Transportation | 1.20 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.21) | 6.02 | (7.74) | 18.71 | |
| FRSH | Freshworks | 0.14 | 12 per month | 2.02 | 0.01 | 3.12 | (3.10) | 8.44 | |
| COMP | Compass | 3.38 | 9 per month | 1.30 | 0.29 | 7.28 | (3.22) | 14.23 | |
| PTRN | Pattern Group Series | 0.21 | 10 per month | 3.91 | 0.06 | 10.05 | (6.68) | 30.40 | |
| BL | Blackline | (0.70) | 12 per month | 2.06 | (0.02) | 2.73 | (3.41) | 9.51 | |
| AGYS | Agilysys | (0.70) | 8 per month | 2.40 | (0) | 3.41 | (4.13) | 28.78 | |
| ASAN | Asana Inc | (0.70) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 3.44 | (5.47) | 15.87 | |
| NCNO | nCino Inc | 0.90 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 4.14 | (3.94) | 10.20 |
Other Forecasting Options for Global Business
For every potential investor in Global, whether a beginner or expert, Global Business' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Global Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Global. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Global Business' price trends.Global Business Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Global Business stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Global Business could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Global Business by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Global Business Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Global Business stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Global Business shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Global Business stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Global Business Travel entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Global Business Risk Indicators
The analysis of Global Business' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Global Business' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting global stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.97 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.62 | |||
| Variance | 6.86 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Global Business
The number of cover stories for Global Business depends on current market conditions and Global Business' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Global Business is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Global Business' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Global Business Short Properties
Global Business' future price predictability will typically decrease when Global Business' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Global Business Travel often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Global Business' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Global Business' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 462.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 536 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Global Business to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Sectors module to list of equity sectors categorizing publicly traded companies based on their primary business activities.
Is Application Software space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Global Business. If investors know Global will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Global Business listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.51) | Earnings Share 0.01 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.129 | Return On Assets |
The market value of Global Business Travel is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Global that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Global Business' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Global Business' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Global Business' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Global Business' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Global Business' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Global Business is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Global Business' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.