Greene County Stock Forward View
| GCBC Stock | USD 23.88 0.44 1.88% |
Greene Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Greene County stock prices and determine the direction of Greene County Bancorp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Greene County's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time, The relative strength index (RSI) of Greene County's share price is at 56. This usually indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Greene County, making its price go up or down. Momentum 56
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.414 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.247 |
Using Greene County hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Greene County Bancorp from the perspective of Greene County response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Greene County Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 24.20 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.48 and the sum of the absolute errors of 29.73. Greene County after-hype prediction price | USD 23.88 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Greene County to cross-verify your projections. Greene County Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Greene price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Greene using various technical indicators. When you analyze Greene charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Greene County Cash Forecast
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Greene County's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 1999-06-30 | Previous Quarter 156 M | Current Value 8.8 M | Quarterly Volatility 58 M |
Greene County Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 4th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Greene County Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 24.20 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.48, mean absolute percentage error of 0.34, and the sum of the absolute errors of 29.73.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Greene Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Greene County's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Greene County Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Greene County | Greene County Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Greene County Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Greene County's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Greene County's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 21.94 and 26.46, respectively. We have considered Greene County's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Greene County stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Greene County stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.858 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4795 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0209 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 29.7291 |
Predictive Modules for Greene County
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Greene County Bancorp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Greene County After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Greene County at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Greene County or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Greene County, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Greene County Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Greene County's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Greene County's historical news coverage. Greene County's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 21.62 and 26.14, respectively. We have considered Greene County's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Greene County is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Greene County Bancorp is based on 3 months time horizon.
Greene County Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Greene County is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Greene County backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Greene County, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.11 | 2.26 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 9 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
23.88 | 23.88 | 0.00 |
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Greene County Hype Timeline
Greene County Bancorp is currently traded for 23.88. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.03, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Greene is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.11%. %. The volatility of related hype on Greene County is about 11894.74%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 23.88. About 59.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.55. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Greene County Bancorp last dividend was issued on the 14th of November 2025. The entity had 2:1 split on the 24th of March 2023. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Greene County to cross-verify your projections.Greene County Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Greene County's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Greene County's future price movements. Getting to know how Greene County's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Greene County may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CARE | Carter Bank and | (0.32) | 26 per month | 1.04 | 0.16 | 3.19 | (2.29) | 7.35 | |
| FRBA | First Bank | (0.13) | 7 per month | 1.32 | 0.03 | 3.29 | (1.92) | 8.53 | |
| BSRR | Sierra Bancorp | 1.55 | 8 per month | 0.91 | 0.19 | 4.28 | (1.74) | 9.04 | |
| WTBA | West Bancorporation | 1.11 | 9 per month | 1.17 | 0.12 | 3.05 | (2.19) | 8.75 | |
| BSVN | Bank7 Corp | 0.06 | 26 per month | 1.41 | 0.04 | 2.39 | (2.38) | 5.28 | |
| KRNY | Kearny Financial Corp | (0.08) | 8 per month | 1.06 | 0.16 | 4.55 | (1.94) | 9.82 | |
| USCB | US Century Bank | 0.08 | 7 per month | 1.74 | 0.06 | 3.69 | (2.66) | 11.45 | |
| CWBC | Community West Bancshares | 0.06 | 8 per month | 0.95 | 0.12 | 3.41 | (2.00) | 7.93 | |
| HBCP | Home Bancorp | (2.21) | 6 per month | 1.22 | 0.10 | 3.62 | (1.95) | 9.63 | |
| SFST | Southern First Bancshares | (0.31) | 10 per month | 1.67 | 0.15 | 3.74 | (2.14) | 13.26 |
Other Forecasting Options for Greene County
For every potential investor in Greene, whether a beginner or expert, Greene County's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Greene Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Greene. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Greene County's price trends.Greene County Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Greene County stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Greene County could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Greene County by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Greene County Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Greene County stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Greene County shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Greene County stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Greene County Bancorp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Greene County Risk Indicators
The analysis of Greene County's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Greene County's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting greene stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.73 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.72 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.22 | |||
| Variance | 4.94 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.17 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.97 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.09) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Greene County
The number of cover stories for Greene County depends on current market conditions and Greene County's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Greene County is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Greene County's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Greene County Short Properties
Greene County's future price predictability will typically decrease when Greene County's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Greene County Bancorp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Greene County's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Greene County's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 17 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 504.3 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Greene County to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Pair Correlation module to compare performance and examine fundamental relationship between any two equity instruments.
Will Regional Banks sector continue expanding? Could Greene diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Greene County. Market participants price Greene higher when confident in its future expansion prospects. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Greene County data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.414 | Dividend Share 0.38 | Earnings Share 1.98 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.247 |
Greene County Bancorp's market price often diverges from its book value, the accounting figure shown on Greene's balance sheet. Smart investors calculate Greene County's intrinsic value - its true economic worth - which may differ significantly from both market price and book value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Since Greene County's trading price responds to investor sentiment, macroeconomic conditions, and market psychology, it can swing far from fundamental value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Greene County's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Greene County is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Greene County's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.