Gfl Environmental Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| GFL Stock | USD 44.44 0.21 0.47% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Gfl Environmental Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 44.92 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.39 and the sum of the absolute errors of 24.41. Gfl Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Gfl Environmental's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Gfl Environmental's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Gfl Environmental fundamentals over time.
As of now the relative strength index (rsi) of Gfl Environmental's share price is below 20 . This usually indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.222 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.2066 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.5865 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.0231 | Wall Street Target Price 55.6416 |
Using Gfl Environmental hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Gfl Environmental Holdings from the perspective of Gfl Environmental response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Gfl Environmental using Gfl Environmental's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Gfl using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Gfl Environmental's stock price.
Gfl Environmental Short Interest
An investor who is long Gfl Environmental may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Gfl Environmental and may potentially protect profits, hedge Gfl Environmental with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 47.0608 | Short Percent 0.0477 | Short Ratio 4.39 | Shares Short Prior Month 7.3 M | 50 Day MA 43.8354 |
Gfl Environmental Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Gfl Environmental's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Gfl. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Gfl can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Gfl Environmental Holdings. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Gfl Environmental Implied Volatility | 0.5 |
Gfl Environmental's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Gfl Environmental Holdings stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Gfl Environmental's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Gfl Environmental stock will not fluctuate a lot when Gfl Environmental's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Gfl Environmental Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 44.92 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.39 and the sum of the absolute errors of 24.41. Gfl Environmental after-hype prediction price | USD 44.41 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Gfl Environmental to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Gfl contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Gfl Environmental Holdings will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0313% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Gfl Environmental trading at USD 44.44, that is roughly USD 0.0139 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Gfl Environmental's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Gfl Environmental Holdings options at the current volatility level of 0.5%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Gfl Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Gfl Environmental's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Gfl Environmental's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Gfl Environmental stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Gfl Environmental's open interest, investors have to compare it to Gfl Environmental's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Gfl Environmental is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Gfl. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Gfl Environmental Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Gfl price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Gfl using various technical indicators. When you analyze Gfl charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Overlap Studies | ||
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Gfl Environmental Cash Forecast
To forecast cash or other financial indicators, analysts must employ diverse statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. This approach allows them to detect underlying patterns in the Gfl Environmental's financial statements, predicting their influence on future market prices.
Cash | First Reported 2018-03-31 | Previous Quarter 139.7 M | Current Value 139.7 M | Quarterly Volatility 386.9 M |
Gfl Environmental Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 25th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Gfl Environmental Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 44.92 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.39, mean absolute percentage error of 0.27, and the sum of the absolute errors of 24.41.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Gfl Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Gfl Environmental's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Gfl Environmental Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Gfl Environmental | Gfl Environmental Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Gfl Environmental Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Gfl Environmental's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Gfl Environmental's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 43.64 and 46.20, respectively. We have considered Gfl Environmental's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Gfl Environmental stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Gfl Environmental stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.647 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3938 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.009 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 24.4126 |
Predictive Modules for Gfl Environmental
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Gfl Environmental. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Gfl Environmental After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Gfl Environmental at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Gfl Environmental or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Gfl Environmental, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Gfl Environmental Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Gfl Environmental's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Gfl Environmental's historical news coverage. Gfl Environmental's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 43.13 and 45.69, respectively. We have considered Gfl Environmental's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Gfl Environmental is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Gfl Environmental is based on 3 months time horizon.
Gfl Environmental Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Gfl Environmental is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Gfl Environmental backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Gfl Environmental, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.02 | 1.28 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 19 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 19 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
44.44 | 44.41 | 0.07 |
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Gfl Environmental Hype Timeline
On the 24th of January Gfl Environmental is traded for 44.44. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.03, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.03. Gfl is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 44.41. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 97.71%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.07%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.02%. The volatility of related hype on Gfl Environmental is about 94.96%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 44.47. About 99.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of Gfl Environmental was currently reported as 15.31. The company last dividend was issued on the 13th of January 2026. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 19 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Gfl Environmental to cross-verify your projections.Gfl Environmental Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Gfl Environmental's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Gfl Environmental's future price movements. Getting to know how Gfl Environmental's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Gfl Environmental may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| KTOS | Kratos Defense Security | 0.99 | 3 per month | 4.00 | 0.08 | 8.14 | (6.46) | 20.15 | |
| CLH | Clean Harbors | 12.45 | 6 per month | 2.30 | 0.02 | 3.79 | (2.00) | 14.51 | |
| CRS | Carpenter Technology | (1.31) | 24 per month | 1.74 | 0.13 | 5.30 | (2.69) | 28.45 | |
| MTZ | MasTec Inc | 0.07 | 25 per month | 2.59 | 0.08 | 4.38 | (4.74) | 13.07 | |
| WWD | Woodward | 1.79 | 8 per month | 1.25 | 0.15 | 3.61 | (2.23) | 16.03 | |
| APG | Api Group Corp | (1.14) | 11 per month | 1.34 | 0.12 | 3.57 | (2.53) | 8.44 | |
| LUV | Southwest Airlines | 0.99 | 9 per month | 1.77 | 0.11 | 4.42 | (2.83) | 9.54 | |
| ZTO | ZTO Express | (0.14) | 10 per month | 0.90 | 0.10 | 2.73 | (1.81) | 7.33 | |
| ULS | UL Solutions | 0.07 | 20 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 2.60 | (3.28) | 21.27 | |
| TRU | TransUnion | (0.29) | 4 per month | 1.89 | 0.01 | 3.72 | (3.02) | 9.21 |
Other Forecasting Options for Gfl Environmental
For every potential investor in Gfl, whether a beginner or expert, Gfl Environmental's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Gfl Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Gfl. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Gfl Environmental's price trends.Gfl Environmental Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Gfl Environmental stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Gfl Environmental could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Gfl Environmental by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Gfl Environmental Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Gfl Environmental stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Gfl Environmental shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Gfl Environmental stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Gfl Environmental Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 36636.39 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.19) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 44.75 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 44.65 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.42) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.21) |
Gfl Environmental Risk Indicators
The analysis of Gfl Environmental's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Gfl Environmental's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting gfl stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.8472 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.24 | |||
| Variance | 1.55 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Gfl Environmental
The number of cover stories for Gfl Environmental depends on current market conditions and Gfl Environmental's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Gfl Environmental is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Gfl Environmental's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Gfl Environmental Short Properties
Gfl Environmental's future price predictability will typically decrease when Gfl Environmental's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Gfl Environmental Holdings often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Gfl Environmental's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Gfl Environmental's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 380.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 133.8 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Gfl Environmental to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Economic Indicators module to top statistical indicators that provide insights into how an economy is performing.
Is Environmental & Facilities Services space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Gfl Environmental. If investors know Gfl will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Gfl Environmental listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.222 | Dividend Share 0.045 | Earnings Share 0.17 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.09 |
The market value of Gfl Environmental is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Gfl that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Gfl Environmental's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Gfl Environmental's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Gfl Environmental's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Gfl Environmental's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Gfl Environmental's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Gfl Environmental is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Gfl Environmental's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.