Genmab AS Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| GMAB Stock | USD 26.87 -0.11 -0.41% |
Double Exponential Smoothing is applied to Genmab AS's daily closing prices, and the resulting forecast is presented with accuracy metrics. Wide deviation between fitted and observed values suggests the model's assumptions may not match current market conditions. The Double Exponential Smoothing model projects Genmab AS at 26.67 for the next trading day, below the most recent closing price. This Double Exponential Smoothing output is provided as analytical reference and does not constitute a trading recommendation.
Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of April
Over a 90-day horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing model forecasts Genmab AS at 26.67 for the next trading day, with a mean absolute deviation of 0.45 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.02 , and sum of absolute errors of 26.41 .This represents a very tight forecast — the model closely tracks Genmab AS's recent price behavior. This output is intended for short-term analytical reference.
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Genmab AS | Genmab AS Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
This forecast for Genmab AS frames the expected trading range using downside and upside bounds rather than a single point target. The model places downside around 24.69 and upside around 28.66 for the next session. The wide range indicates elevated uncertainty in short-term projections.
Model Predictive Factors
The table below summarizes the Double Exponential Smoothing model's error metrics for Genmab AS stock. Lower MAD and MAPE values indicate tighter forecast accuracy. AIC measures relative model quality — lower values indicate less information loss and a better-fitting model. A large Bias suggests systematic over- or under-prediction.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0693 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4476 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0158 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 26.411 |
Other Forecasting Options for Genmab AS
Genmab AS's daily price returns decompose into trend, seasonal, and residual components. Divergence between short-term and long-term averages in Genmab often signals an upcoming reversal or acceleration.Genmab AS Related Equities
Checking Genmab AS against related firms within the Health Care space reveals where the stock stands among peers. Key comparison metrics include price-to-earnings, profit margin, and revenue growth across Genmab AS's peer group. Sector-wide trends across this peer group split company-level factors from broader forces. This peer set gives the context needed for a well-rounded view of Genmab AS.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Genmab AS Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for Genmab AS stock provide a framework for assessing security responsiveness. A rising Accumulation/Distribution line alongside rising price confirms institutional buying interest in Genmab AS.
Genmab AS Risk Indicators
Assessing Genmab AS's risk indicators is a structured way to evaluate the risk-return trade-off for genmab stock. The level of risk embedded in Genmab AS's feeds directly into exposure calibration.
| Mean Deviation | 1.53 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.98 | |||
| Variance | 3.93 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Genmab AS Short Properties
Reviewing short-oriented indicators for Genmab AS is useful because long and short participants often create very different signals for timing and volatility. This is applicable when the question is whether bearish pressure is starting to shape the market's reaction function.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 626.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.7 B |