Canada Goose Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

GOOS Stock  CAD 17.73  0.33  1.90%   
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Canada Goose Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 17.68 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.41 and the sum of the absolute errors of 24.19. Canada Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
As of today, the value of RSI of Canada Goose's share price is approaching 46. This usually indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Canada Goose, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 46

 Impartial

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Canada Goose's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Canada Goose Holdings, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Canada Goose hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Canada Goose Holdings from the perspective of Canada Goose response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Canada Goose Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 17.68 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.41 and the sum of the absolute errors of 24.19.

Canada Goose after-hype prediction price

    
  CAD 17.73  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Canada Goose to cross-verify your projections.

Canada Goose Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Canada price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Canada using various technical indicators. When you analyze Canada charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Canada Goose works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Canada Goose Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 23rd of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Canada Goose Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 17.68 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.41, mean absolute percentage error of 0.34, and the sum of the absolute errors of 24.19.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Canada Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Canada Goose's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Canada Goose Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Canada GooseCanada Goose Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Canada Goose Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Canada Goose's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Canada Goose's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 14.60 and 20.76, respectively. We have considered Canada Goose's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
17.73
17.68
Expected Value
20.76
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Canada Goose stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Canada Goose stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0647
MADMean absolute deviation0.41
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0224
SAESum of the absolute errors24.1921
When Canada Goose Holdings prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Canada Goose Holdings trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Canada Goose observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Canada Goose

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Canada Goose Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
14.6517.7320.81
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
12.1315.2118.29
Details

Canada Goose After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Canada Goose at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Canada Goose or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Canada Goose, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Canada Goose Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Canada Goose's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Canada Goose's historical news coverage. Canada Goose's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 14.65 and 20.81, respectively. We have considered Canada Goose's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
17.73
17.73
After-hype Price
20.81
Upside
Canada Goose is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Canada Goose Holdings is based on 3 months time horizon.

Canada Goose Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Canada Goose is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Canada Goose backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Canada Goose, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.06 
3.08
 0.00  
 0.00  
0 Events / Month
0 Events / Month
In a few days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
17.73
17.73
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

Canada Goose Hype Timeline

Canada Goose Holdings is currently traded for 17.73on Toronto Exchange of Canada. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Canada is estimated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is estimated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.06%. %. The volatility of related hype on Canada Goose is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 17.73. About 66.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of Canada Goose was currently reported as 4.37. The company had not issued any dividends in recent years. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next estimated press release will be in a few days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Canada Goose to cross-verify your projections.

Canada Goose Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Canada Goose's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Canada Goose's future price movements. Getting to know how Canada Goose's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Canada Goose may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
LNFLeons Furniture Limited 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.08) 1.46 (2.12) 9.71 
TOYSpin Master Corp 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.08) 3.13 (2.97) 14.65 
NFINFI Group 0.00 0 per month 1.43  0.09  3.74 (2.02) 16.03 
RCHRichelieu Hardware 0.00 0 per month 0.88  0.06  2.52 (1.55) 4.79 
PETPet Valu Holdings 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.14) 2.67 (2.56) 18.72 
WPKWinpak 0.00 0 per month 1.06 (0.06) 1.70 (1.38) 5.24 
IFAiFabric Corp 0.00 0 per month 3.17  0.12  12.67 (6.70) 22.13 
AWA W FOOD 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.12) 1.92 (1.89) 6.49 
UNIUnisync Corp 0.00 0 per month 2.08  0.15  4.94 (2.89) 16.13 
MTYMTY Food Group 0.00 0 per month 1.44  0.12  2.57 (1.59) 21.01 

Other Forecasting Options for Canada Goose

For every potential investor in Canada, whether a beginner or expert, Canada Goose's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Canada Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Canada. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Canada Goose's price trends.

Canada Goose Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Canada Goose stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Canada Goose could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Canada Goose by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Canada Goose Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Canada Goose stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Canada Goose shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Canada Goose stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Canada Goose Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Canada Goose Risk Indicators

The analysis of Canada Goose's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Canada Goose's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting canada stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Canada Goose

The number of cover stories for Canada Goose depends on current market conditions and Canada Goose's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Canada Goose is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Canada Goose's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios

Canada Goose Short Properties

Canada Goose's future price predictability will typically decrease when Canada Goose's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Canada Goose Holdings often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Canada Goose's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Canada Goose's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding98.1 M
Cash And Short Term Investments334.4 M
When determining whether Canada Goose Holdings is a strong investment it is important to analyze Canada Goose's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Canada Goose's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Canada Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Canada Goose to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Price Transformation module to use Price Transformation models to analyze the depth of different equity instruments across global markets.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Canada Goose's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Canada Goose is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Canada Goose's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.