Gold Resource Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| GORO Stock | USD 1.34 0.10 6.94% |
Gold Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Gold Resource's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Gold Resource's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Gold Resource fundamentals over time.
As of today, The relative strength momentum indicator of Gold Resource's share price is at 57. This usually indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Gold Resource, making its price go up or down. Momentum 57
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.742 | EPS Estimate Current Year (0.20) | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.04 | Wall Street Target Price 1.25 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.874 |
Using Gold Resource hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Gold Resource from the perspective of Gold Resource response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Gold Resource using Gold Resource's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Gold using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Gold Resource's stock price.
Gold Resource Implied Volatility | 1.66 |
Gold Resource's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Gold Resource stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Gold Resource's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Gold Resource stock will not fluctuate a lot when Gold Resource's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Gold Resource on the next trading day is expected to be 1.34 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.05 and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.32. Gold Resource after-hype prediction price | USD 1.31 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Gold Resource to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Gold contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Gold Resource will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.1% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Gold Resource trading at USD 1.34, that is roughly USD 0.00139 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Gold Resource's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Gold Resource options at the current volatility level of 1.66%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Gold Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Gold Resource's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Gold Resource's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Gold Resource stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Gold Resource's open interest, investors have to compare it to Gold Resource's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Gold Resource is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Gold. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Gold Resource Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Gold price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Gold using various technical indicators. When you analyze Gold charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Gold Resource Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 1st of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Gold Resource on the next trading day is expected to be 1.34 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.05, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.32.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Gold Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Gold Resource's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Gold Resource Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Gold Resource | Gold Resource Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Gold Resource Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Gold Resource's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Gold Resource's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.01 and 8.69, respectively. We have considered Gold Resource's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Gold Resource stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Gold Resource stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.1752 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0127 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0544 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0519 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 3.3214 |
Predictive Modules for Gold Resource
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Gold Resource. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Gold Resource After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Gold Resource at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Gold Resource or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Gold Resource, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Gold Resource Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Gold Resource's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Gold Resource's historical news coverage. Gold Resource's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.07 and 8.66, respectively. We have considered Gold Resource's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Gold Resource is abnormally volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Gold Resource is based on 3 months time horizon.
Gold Resource Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Gold Resource is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Gold Resource backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Gold Resource, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
1.40 | 7.35 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 10 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
1.34 | 1.31 | 2.24 |
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Gold Resource Hype Timeline
Gold Resource is currently traded for 1.34. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.03, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.01. Gold is projected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 1.31. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -2.24%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 1.4%. The volatility of related hype on Gold Resource is about 73500.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 1.33. About 39.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company recorded a loss per share of 0.3. Gold Resource last dividend was issued on the 14th of December 2022. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Gold Resource to cross-verify your projections.Gold Resource Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Gold Resource's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Gold Resource's future price movements. Getting to know how Gold Resource's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Gold Resource may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| NAMM | Namib Minerals Ordinary | (0.01) | 9 per month | 5.74 | 0.13 | 31.29 | (11.72) | 155.91 | |
| GRO | Brazil Potash Corp | (0.10) | 9 per month | 4.06 | 0.04 | 6.53 | (6.56) | 16.70 | |
| ATLX | Atlas Lithium | (0.12) | 9 per month | 5.29 | 0.01 | 6.80 | (9.47) | 21.62 | |
| PZG | Paramount Gold Nevada | 0.1 | 7 per month | 2.80 | 0.18 | 11.11 | (4.90) | 19.02 | |
| NEXM | NexMetals Mining Corp | (0.13) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 6.52 | (6.60) | 18.27 | |
| FEAM | 5E Advanced Materials | 0.33 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.21) | 8.39 | (9.81) | 42.14 | |
| FURY | Fury Gold Mines | 0.01 | 9 per month | 3.73 | 0.11 | 9.72 | (6.35) | 27.18 | |
| ORGN | Origin Materials | (0.02) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.36) | 6.82 | (8.70) | 22.98 | |
| ALTO | Alto Ingredients | (0.1) | 9 per month | 3.36 | 0.24 | 13.41 | (6.27) | 32.45 | |
| LGO | Largo Resources | (0.06) | 4 per month | 4.01 | 0.05 | 9.17 | (6.54) | 20.11 |
Other Forecasting Options for Gold Resource
For every potential investor in Gold, whether a beginner or expert, Gold Resource's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Gold Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Gold. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Gold Resource's price trends.Gold Resource Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Gold Resource stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Gold Resource could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Gold Resource by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Gold Resource Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Gold Resource stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Gold Resource shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Gold Resource stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Gold Resource entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Gold Resource Risk Indicators
The analysis of Gold Resource's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Gold Resource's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting gold stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 5.26 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 5.29 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 7.17 | |||
| Variance | 51.34 | |||
| Downside Variance | 39.89 | |||
| Semi Variance | 27.98 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (6.95) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Gold Resource
The number of cover stories for Gold Resource depends on current market conditions and Gold Resource's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Gold Resource is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Gold Resource's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Gold Resource Short Properties
Gold Resource's future price predictability will typically decrease when Gold Resource's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Gold Resource often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Gold Resource's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Gold Resource's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 91.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.6 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Gold Resource to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Gold Stock, please use our How to Invest in Gold Resource guide.You can also try the Portfolio Holdings module to check your current holdings and cash postion to detemine if your portfolio needs rebalancing.
Will Metals & Mining sector continue expanding? Could Gold diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Gold Resource. Market participants price Gold higher when confident in its future expansion prospects. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Gold Resource data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.742 | Earnings Share (0.30) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.874 | Return On Assets |
Understanding Gold Resource requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects Gold's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value—what Gold Resource's is actually worth based on fundamentals—guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push Gold Resource's price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Gold Resource's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Gold Resource is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. In contrast, Gold Resource's trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.