Gouverneur Bancorp OTC Stock Forward View
| GOVB Stock | USD 17.70 0.35 2.02% |
Gouverneur OTC Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Gouverneur Bancorp stock prices and determine the direction of Gouverneur Bancorp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Gouverneur Bancorp's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
The value of RSI of Gouverneur Bancorp's share price is above 70 at the present time. This usually indicates that the otc stock is becoming overbought or overvalued. The idea behind Relative Strength Index (RSI) is that it helps to track how fast people are buying or selling Gouverneur, making its price go up or down. Momentum 74
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
It is a matter of debate whether otc price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Gouverneur Bancorp based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. Using Gouverneur Bancorp hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Gouverneur Bancorp from the perspective of Gouverneur Bancorp response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Gouverneur Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 17.79 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.18 and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.92. Gouverneur Bancorp after-hype prediction price | USD 17.7 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as otc price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Gouverneur |
Gouverneur Bancorp Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Gouverneur price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Gouverneur using various technical indicators. When you analyze Gouverneur charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Gouverneur Bancorp Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 31st of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Gouverneur Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 17.79 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.18, mean absolute percentage error of 0.06, and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.92.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Gouverneur OTC Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Gouverneur Bancorp's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Gouverneur Bancorp OTC Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Gouverneur Bancorp | Gouverneur Bancorp Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Gouverneur Bancorp Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Gouverneur Bancorp's OTC Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Gouverneur Bancorp's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 16.24 and 19.34, respectively. We have considered Gouverneur Bancorp's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Gouverneur Bancorp otc stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Gouverneur Bancorp otc stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.2246 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.179 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0113 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 10.9192 |
Predictive Modules for Gouverneur Bancorp
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Gouverneur Bancorp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the otc stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the otc stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Gouverneur Bancorp's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Gouverneur Bancorp After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Gouverneur Bancorp at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Gouverneur Bancorp or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of OTC Stock prices, such as prices of Gouverneur Bancorp, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Gouverneur Bancorp Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Gouverneur Bancorp's otc stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Gouverneur Bancorp's historical news coverage. Gouverneur Bancorp's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 16.16 and 19.24, respectively. We have considered Gouverneur Bancorp's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Gouverneur Bancorp is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Gouverneur Bancorp is based on 3 months time horizon.
Gouverneur Bancorp OTC Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a OTC Stock such as Gouverneur Bancorp is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Gouverneur Bancorp backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the OTC price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Gouverneur Bancorp, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.40 | 1.55 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
17.70 | 17.70 | 0.00 |
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Gouverneur Bancorp Hype Timeline
Gouverneur Bancorp is currently traded for 17.70. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Gouverneur is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.4%. %. The volatility of related hype on Gouverneur Bancorp is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 17.70. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.88. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Gouverneur Bancorp last dividend was issued on the 14th of September 2022. The entity had 1:100 split on the 6th of October 2008. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in a few days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Gouverneur Bancorp to cross-verify your projections.Gouverneur Bancorp Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Gouverneur Bancorp's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Gouverneur Bancorp's future price movements. Getting to know how Gouverneur Bancorp's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Gouverneur Bancorp may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| FIDS | FNB Inc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.18 | 0.12 | 4.66 | (3.75) | 12.29 | |
| UNTN | United Tennessee Bankshares | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.14 | 1.53 | (0.10) | 5.31 | |
| CTYP | Community Bankers | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.66 | 0.08 | 5.45 | (3.52) | 23.19 | |
| MSBB | Mercer Bancorp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.08 | 1.23 | (0.31) | 2.60 | |
| TCNB | Town Center Bank | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 1.33 | (1.15) | 4.98 | |
| TVLF | Tennessee Valley Financial | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.46 | (0.12) | 7.60 | |
| HRBK | Harbor Bankshares | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 1.60 | (5.00) | 19.98 | |
| FLEW | Fleetwood Bank Pa | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.14 | 0.06 | 9.70 | (3.00) | 43.13 | |
| EBSH | Empire Bancshares | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.28) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.21 | |
| GVFF | Greenville Federal Financial | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 0.00 | (0.15) | 8.83 |
Other Forecasting Options for Gouverneur Bancorp
For every potential investor in Gouverneur, whether a beginner or expert, Gouverneur Bancorp's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Gouverneur OTC Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Gouverneur. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Gouverneur Bancorp's price trends.Gouverneur Bancorp Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Gouverneur Bancorp otc stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Gouverneur Bancorp could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Gouverneur Bancorp by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Gouverneur Bancorp Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Gouverneur Bancorp otc stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Gouverneur Bancorp shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Gouverneur Bancorp otc stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Gouverneur Bancorp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Daily Balance Of Power | 9.2 T | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.02 | |||
| Day Median Price | 17.7 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 17.7 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.17 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.35 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 74.95 |
Gouverneur Bancorp Risk Indicators
The analysis of Gouverneur Bancorp's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Gouverneur Bancorp's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting gouverneur otc stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.854 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.2044 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.48 | |||
| Variance | 2.19 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.23 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.0418 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.02) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Gouverneur Bancorp
The number of cover stories for Gouverneur Bancorp depends on current market conditions and Gouverneur Bancorp's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Gouverneur Bancorp is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Gouverneur Bancorp's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Gouverneur Bancorp Short Properties
Gouverneur Bancorp's future price predictability will typically decrease when Gouverneur Bancorp's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Gouverneur Bancorp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Gouverneur Bancorp's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Gouverneur Bancorp's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 2.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 3.9 M |
Other Information on Investing in Gouverneur OTC Stock
Gouverneur Bancorp financial ratios help investors to determine whether Gouverneur OTC Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Gouverneur with respect to the benefits of owning Gouverneur Bancorp security.