Garmin Stock Forecast - Simple Regression
| GRMN Stock | USD 206.92 0.75 0.36% |
Garmin Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Garmin's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Garmin's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Garmin fundamentals over time.
As of today, the relative strength index (RSI) of Garmin's share price is approaching 47. This usually indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Garmin, making its price go up or down. Momentum 47
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.005 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 2.3231 | EPS Estimate Current Year 8.1806 | EPS Estimate Next Year 8.7197 | Wall Street Target Price 235.25 |
Using Garmin hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Garmin from the perspective of Garmin response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Garmin using Garmin's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Garmin using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Garmin's stock price.
Garmin Short Interest
An investor who is long Garmin may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Garmin and may potentially protect profits, hedge Garmin with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 215.6784 | Short Percent 0.021 | Short Ratio 3.36 | Shares Short Prior Month 2.1 M | 50 Day MA 202.5424 |
Garmin Relative Strength Index
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Garmin on the next trading day is expected to be 208.14 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.17 and the sum of the absolute errors of 315.46.Garmin Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Garmin's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Garmin. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Garmin can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Garmin. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Garmin's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Garmin.
Garmin Implied Volatility | 0.31 |
Garmin's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Garmin stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Garmin's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Garmin stock will not fluctuate a lot when Garmin's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Garmin on the next trading day is expected to be 208.14 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.17 and the sum of the absolute errors of 315.46. Garmin after-hype prediction price | USD 207.59 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Garmin to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Garmin contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Garmin will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0194% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Garmin trading at USD 206.92, that is roughly USD 0.0401 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Garmin's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Garmin options at the current volatility level of 0.31%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Garmin Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Garmin's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Garmin's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Garmin stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Garmin's open interest, investors have to compare it to Garmin's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Garmin is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Garmin. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Garmin Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Garmin price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Garmin using various technical indicators. When you analyze Garmin charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Garmin Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 28th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Garmin on the next trading day is expected to be 208.14 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.17, mean absolute percentage error of 45.18, and the sum of the absolute errors of 315.46.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Garmin Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Garmin's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Garmin Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Garmin | Garmin Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Garmin Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Garmin's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Garmin's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 206.71 and 209.57, respectively. We have considered Garmin's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Garmin stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Garmin stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 121.9213 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 5.1716 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0256 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 315.4648 |
Predictive Modules for Garmin
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Garmin. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Garmin After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Garmin at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Garmin or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Garmin, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Garmin Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Garmin's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Garmin's historical news coverage. Garmin's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 205.56 and 209.62, respectively. We have considered Garmin's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Garmin is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Garmin is based on 3 months time horizon.
Garmin Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Garmin is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Garmin backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Garmin, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.08 | 1.43 | 0.20 | 0.35 | 5 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 5 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
206.92 | 207.59 | 0.32 |
|
Garmin Hype Timeline
Garmin is currently traded for 206.92. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.2, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.35. Garmin is expected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 207.59 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 57.89%. The price boost on the next news is projected to be 0.32%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.08%. The volatility of related hype on Garmin is about 32.79%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 207.27. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 6.3 B. Net Income was 1.41 B with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 4.08 B. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be in about 5 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Garmin to cross-verify your projections.Garmin Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Garmin's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Garmin's future price movements. Getting to know how Garmin's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Garmin may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CLS | Celestica | 0.03 | 7 per month | 4.99 | 0.06 | 6.99 | (7.56) | 27.95 | |
| NOK | Nokia Corp ADR | (0.14) | 6 per month | 2.51 | 0.08 | 4.15 | (4.42) | 31.94 | |
| KEYS | Keysight Technologies | (0.01) | 12 per month | 1.36 | 0.15 | 2.87 | (2.83) | 13.11 | |
| TDY | Teledyne Technologies Incorporated | (4.45) | 6 per month | 1.51 | 0.01 | 2.15 | (2.03) | 11.58 | |
| FICO | Fair Isaac | 0.81 | 8 per month | 2.13 | (0.03) | 3.93 | (3.16) | 9.68 | |
| FLEX | Flex | (2.84) | 7 per month | 2.59 | (0) | 5.23 | (4.13) | 12.35 | |
| ERIC | Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson | (0.06) | 9 per month | 1.28 | 0.06 | 3.48 | (1.65) | 8.46 | |
| MPWR | Monolithic Power Systems | 11.42 | 9 per month | 2.76 | 0 | 3.91 | (4.47) | 14.52 | |
| SNDK | Sandisk Corp | 39.62 | 8 per month | 5.43 | 0.25 | 15.31 | (7.88) | 36.75 | |
| CTSH | Cognizant Technology Solutions | (0.77) | 9 per month | 0.78 | 0.18 | 3.10 | (2.07) | 8.70 |
Other Forecasting Options for Garmin
For every potential investor in Garmin, whether a beginner or expert, Garmin's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Garmin Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Garmin. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Garmin's price trends.Garmin Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Garmin stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Garmin could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Garmin by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Garmin Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Garmin stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Garmin shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Garmin stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Garmin entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Garmin Risk Indicators
The analysis of Garmin's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Garmin's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting garmin stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.18 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.97 | |||
| Variance | 3.89 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Garmin
The number of cover stories for Garmin depends on current market conditions and Garmin's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Garmin is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Garmin's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Garmin Short Properties
Garmin's future price predictability will typically decrease when Garmin's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Garmin often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Garmin's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Garmin's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 193.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 2.5 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Garmin to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Garmin Stock, please use our How to Invest in Garmin guide.You can also try the Portfolio Suggestion module to get suggestions outside of your existing asset allocation including your own model portfolios.
Is Consumer Electronics space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Garmin. If investors know Garmin will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Garmin listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.005 | Dividend Share 3.6 | Earnings Share 8.1 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.117 |
The market value of Garmin is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Garmin that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Garmin's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Garmin's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Garmin's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Garmin's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Garmin's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Garmin is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Garmin's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.