Great Southern Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression
| GSBC Stock | USD 60.37 0.66 1.08% |
Great Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Great Southern stock prices and determine the direction of Great Southern Bancorp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Great Southern's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time, the relative strength index (RSI) of Great Southern's share price is approaching 46. This usually indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Great Southern, making its price go up or down. Momentum 46
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Great Southern hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Great Southern Bancorp from the perspective of Great Southern response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Great Southern Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 61.82 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.18 and the sum of the absolute errors of 72.21. Great Southern after-hype prediction price | USD 60.91 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Great Southern to cross-verify your projections. Great Southern Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Great price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Great using various technical indicators. When you analyze Great charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Great Southern Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 27th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Great Southern Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 61.82 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.18, mean absolute percentage error of 2.42, and the sum of the absolute errors of 72.21.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Great Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Great Southern's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Great Southern Stock Forecast Pattern
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Great Southern Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Great Southern's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Great Southern's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 59.96 and 63.68, respectively. We have considered Great Southern's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Great Southern stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Great Southern stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.9961 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.1838 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0191 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 72.2135 |
Predictive Modules for Great Southern
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Great Southern Bancorp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Great Southern After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Great Southern at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Great Southern or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Great Southern, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Great Southern Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Great Southern's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Great Southern's historical news coverage. Great Southern's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 59.05 and 62.77, respectively. We have considered Great Southern's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Great Southern is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Great Southern Bancorp is based on 3 months time horizon.
Great Southern Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Great Southern is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Great Southern backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Great Southern, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.12 | 1.86 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
60.37 | 60.91 | 0.20 |
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Great Southern Hype Timeline
Great Southern Bancorp is currently traded for 60.37. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Great is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 60.91. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is insignificant. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.2%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.12%. The volatility of related hype on Great Southern is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 60.37. About 28.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.06. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Great Southern Bancorp has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.62. The entity recorded earning per share (EPS) of 6.19. The firm last dividend was issued on the 29th of December 2025. Great Southern had 2:1 split on the 2nd of June 2004. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in a few days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Great Southern to cross-verify your projections.Great Southern Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Great Southern's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Great Southern's future price movements. Getting to know how Great Southern's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Great Southern may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| IBCP | Independent Bank | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.11 | 0.07 | 2.57 | (2.57) | 7.82 | |
| SMBC | Southern Missouri Bancorp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.23 | 0.09 | 3.00 | (1.77) | 10.20 | |
| THFF | First Financial | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.43 | 0.07 | 3.55 | (2.36) | 10.39 | |
| BCAL | Southern California Bancorp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.23 | 0 | 2.11 | (1.97) | 6.44 | |
| CAC | Camden National | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.12 | 0.14 | 3.78 | (1.96) | 10.30 | |
| MCBS | MetroCity Bankshares | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.42 | 0 | 2.87 | (2.71) | 9.78 | |
| ORRF | Orrstown Financial Services | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.14 | 0.02 | 2.73 | (2.35) | 8.43 | |
| SPFI | South Plains Financial | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.07 | 0.08 | 2.82 | (1.70) | 9.14 | |
| MPB | Mid Penn Bancorp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.44 | 0.05 | 3.26 | (1.82) | 10.40 | |
| HTBK | Heritage Commerce Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.12 | 0.16 | 2.85 | (2.06) | 9.72 |
Other Forecasting Options for Great Southern
For every potential investor in Great, whether a beginner or expert, Great Southern's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Great Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Great. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Great Southern's price trends.Great Southern Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Great Southern stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Great Southern could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Great Southern by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Great Southern Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Great Southern stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Great Southern shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Great Southern stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Great Southern Bancorp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 1735.38 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.48) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 61.06 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 60.83 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (1.02) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.66) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 46.66 |
Great Southern Risk Indicators
The analysis of Great Southern's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Great Southern's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting great stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.15 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.76 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.86 | |||
| Variance | 3.47 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.92 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.08 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.26) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Great Southern
The number of cover stories for Great Southern depends on current market conditions and Great Southern's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Great Southern is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Great Southern's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Great Southern Short Properties
Great Southern's future price predictability will typically decrease when Great Southern's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Great Southern Bancorp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Great Southern's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Great Southern's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 11.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 825.5 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Great Southern to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the My Watchlist Analysis module to analyze my current watchlist and to refresh optimization strategy. Macroaxis watchlist is based on self-learning algorithm to remember stocks you like.
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Great Southern. If investors know Great will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Great Southern listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Great Southern Bancorp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Great that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Great Southern's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Great Southern's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Great Southern's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Great Southern's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Great Southern's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Great Southern is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Great Southern's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.