Granite Construction Stock Forward View - Simple Regression
| GVA Stock | USD 121.57 1.94 1.62% |
Granite Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Granite Construction stock prices and determine the direction of Granite Construction Incorporated's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Granite Construction's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
The relative strength momentum indicator of Granite Construction's stock price is about 61. This usually indicates that the stock is rather overbought by investors at this time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Granite, making its price go up or down. Momentum 61
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.263 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.41 | EPS Estimate Current Year 5.5572 | EPS Estimate Next Year 6.203 | Wall Street Target Price 135.2 |
Using Granite Construction hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Granite Construction Incorporated from the perspective of Granite Construction response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Granite Construction using Granite Construction's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Granite using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Granite Construction's stock price.
Granite Construction Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Granite Construction's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Granite. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Granite Construction stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 101.2398 | Short Percent 0.1433 | Short Ratio 6.38 | Shares Short Prior Month 5.2 M | 50 Day MA 114.1258 |
Granite Relative Strength Index
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Granite Construction Incorporated on the next trading day is expected to be 125.55 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.98 and the sum of the absolute errors of 120.96.Granite Construction Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Granite Construction's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Granite. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Granite can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Granite Construction Incorporated. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Granite Construction's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Granite Construction.
Granite Construction Implied Volatility | 0.45 |
Granite Construction's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Granite Construction Incorporated stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Granite Construction's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Granite Construction stock will not fluctuate a lot when Granite Construction's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Granite Construction Incorporated on the next trading day is expected to be 125.55 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.98 and the sum of the absolute errors of 120.96. Granite Construction after-hype prediction price | USD 121.82 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Granite Construction to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Granite contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Granite Construction Incorporated will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0281% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Granite Construction trading at USD 121.57, that is roughly USD 0.0342 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Granite Construction's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Granite Construction Incorporated options at the current volatility level of 0.45%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Granite Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Granite Construction's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Granite Construction's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Granite Construction stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Granite Construction's open interest, investors have to compare it to Granite Construction's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Granite Construction is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Granite. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Granite Construction Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Granite price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Granite using various technical indicators. When you analyze Granite charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Granite Construction Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 31st of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Granite Construction Incorporated on the next trading day is expected to be 125.55 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.98, mean absolute percentage error of 5.51, and the sum of the absolute errors of 120.96.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Granite Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Granite Construction's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Granite Construction Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Granite Construction | Granite Construction Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Granite Construction Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Granite Construction's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Granite Construction's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 124.33 and 126.77, respectively. We have considered Granite Construction's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Granite Construction stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Granite Construction stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.8169 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.9829 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0175 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 120.959 |
Predictive Modules for Granite Construction
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Granite Construction. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Granite Construction's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Granite Construction After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Granite Construction at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Granite Construction or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Granite Construction, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Granite Construction Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Granite Construction's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Granite Construction's historical news coverage. Granite Construction's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 120.60 and 123.04, respectively. We have considered Granite Construction's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Granite Construction is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Granite Construction is based on 3 months time horizon.
Granite Construction Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Granite Construction is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Granite Construction backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Granite Construction, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.29 | 1.22 | 0.25 | 0.81 | 11 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
121.57 | 121.82 | 0.21 |
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Granite Construction Hype Timeline
On the 30th of January Granite Construction is traded for 121.57. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.25, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.81. Granite is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 121.82 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 141.86%. The price jump on the next news is projected to be 0.21%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.29%. The volatility of related hype on Granite Construction is about 43.95%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 122.38. The company reported the last year's revenue of 4.01 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 140.44 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 694.25 M. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 11 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Granite Construction to cross-verify your projections.Granite Construction Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Granite Construction's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Granite Construction's future price movements. Getting to know how Granite Construction's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Granite Construction may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ECG | Everus Construction Group | 1.27 | 7 per month | 3.39 | (0.01) | 5.15 | (4.97) | 20.64 | |
| AGX | Argan Inc | 6.93 | 11 per month | 3.73 | 0.07 | 7.17 | (7.35) | 22.90 | |
| MYRG | MYR Group | (0.21) | 10 per month | 2.40 | 0.08 | 4.31 | (4.84) | 10.70 | |
| BCO | Brinks Company | (0.78) | 10 per month | 1.32 | 0.06 | 3.11 | (2.28) | 10.50 | |
| LSTR | Landstar System | 3.93 | 11 per month | 1.14 | 0.12 | 3.40 | (2.03) | 6.67 | |
| POWL | Powell Industries | (0.87) | 10 per month | 4.11 | 0.1 | 5.76 | (7.08) | 17.51 | |
| KBR | KBR Inc | 0.92 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 3.22 | (2.79) | 10.41 | |
| ALK | Alaska Air Group | (0.44) | 8 per month | 2.27 | 0.10 | 4.46 | (3.97) | 11.23 | |
| ENS | Enersys | 5.91 | 11 per month | 1.17 | 0.35 | 3.04 | (2.59) | 7.13 | |
| CSW | CSW Industrials | 11.10 | 9 per month | 1.97 | 0.12 | 4.21 | (4.01) | 13.68 |
Other Forecasting Options for Granite Construction
For every potential investor in Granite, whether a beginner or expert, Granite Construction's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Granite Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Granite. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Granite Construction's price trends.Granite Construction Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Granite Construction stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Granite Construction could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Granite Construction by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Granite Construction Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Granite Construction stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Granite Construction shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Granite Construction stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Granite Construction Incorporated entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Granite Construction Risk Indicators
The analysis of Granite Construction's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Granite Construction's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting granite stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.9087 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.7827 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.19 | |||
| Variance | 1.41 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.9914 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.6126 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.14) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Granite Construction
The number of cover stories for Granite Construction depends on current market conditions and Granite Construction's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Granite Construction is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Granite Construction's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Granite Construction Short Properties
Granite Construction's future price predictability will typically decrease when Granite Construction's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Granite Construction Incorporated often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Granite Construction's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Granite Construction's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 52.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 726.6 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Granite Construction to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Investing Opportunities module to build portfolios using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your investing preferences.
Is Construction & Engineering space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Granite Construction. Market participants price Granite higher when confident in its future expansion prospects. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive Granite Construction assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.263 | Dividend Share 0.52 | Earnings Share 3.66 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.124 |
Understanding Granite Construction requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects Granite's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value—what Granite Construction's is actually worth based on fundamentals—guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push Granite Construction's price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Granite Construction's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Granite Construction is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. In contrast, Granite Construction's trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.