Guidewire Software Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| GWRE Stock | USD 202.82 2.96 1.48% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Guidewire Software on the next trading day is expected to be 203.55 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.27 and the sum of the absolute errors of 138.17. Guidewire Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Guidewire Software stock prices and determine the direction of Guidewire Software's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Guidewire Software's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Guidewire |
Guidewire Software Cash Forecast
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Guidewire Software's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 2009-07-31 | Previous Quarter 360.8 M | Current Value 548 M | Quarterly Volatility 127.3 M |
Guidewire Software Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 23rd of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Guidewire Software on the next trading day is expected to be 203.55 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.27, mean absolute percentage error of 8.93, and the sum of the absolute errors of 138.17.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Guidewire Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Guidewire Software's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Guidewire Software Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Guidewire Software | Guidewire Software Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Guidewire Software Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Guidewire Software's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Guidewire Software's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 201.71 and 205.40, respectively. We have considered Guidewire Software's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Guidewire Software stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Guidewire Software stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 120.3001 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.2651 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0131 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 138.1733 |
Predictive Modules for Guidewire Software
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Guidewire Software. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Guidewire Software
For every potential investor in Guidewire, whether a beginner or expert, Guidewire Software's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Guidewire Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Guidewire. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Guidewire Software's price trends.Guidewire Software Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Guidewire Software stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Guidewire Software could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Guidewire Software by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Guidewire Software Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Guidewire Software's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Guidewire Software's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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Guidewire Software Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Guidewire Software stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Guidewire Software shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Guidewire Software stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Guidewire Software entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 9498.4 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.7688 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 201.07 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 201.65 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 3.23 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 2.96 |
Guidewire Software Risk Indicators
The analysis of Guidewire Software's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Guidewire Software's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting guidewire stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.9795 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.2503 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.83 | |||
| Variance | 3.33 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.8047 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.0626 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.26) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.When determining whether Guidewire Software is a strong investment it is important to analyze Guidewire Software's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Guidewire Software's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Guidewire Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Guidewire Software to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Guidewire Stock refer to our How to Trade Guidewire Stock guide.You can also try the Stocks Directory module to find actively traded stocks across global markets.
Is Application Software space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Guidewire Software. If investors know Guidewire will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Guidewire Software listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.349 | Earnings Share (0.08) | Revenue Per Share 11.915 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.08 | Return On Assets (0.02) |
The market value of Guidewire Software is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Guidewire that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Guidewire Software's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Guidewire Software's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Guidewire Software's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Guidewire Software's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Guidewire Software's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Guidewire Software is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Guidewire Software's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.