Helmerich Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| HP Stock | USD 32.45 0.15 0.46% |
Helmerich Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Helmerich's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Helmerich's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Helmerich fundamentals over time.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Helmerich's stock price is slightly above 61. This usually indicates that the stock is rather overbought by investors as of today. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Helmerich, making its price go up or down. Momentum 61
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.99) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.1986 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.456 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.8351 | Wall Street Target Price 31.7333 |
Using Helmerich hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Helmerich and Payne from the perspective of Helmerich response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Helmerich using Helmerich's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Helmerich using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Helmerich's stock price.
Helmerich Short Interest
An investor who is long Helmerich may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Helmerich and may potentially protect profits, hedge Helmerich with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 21.8705 | Short Percent 0.0947 | Short Ratio 4.67 | Shares Short Prior Month 6.8 M | 50 Day MA 29.2524 |
Helmerich Relative Strength Index
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Helmerich and Payne on the next trading day is expected to be 32.11 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.65 and the sum of the absolute errors of 39.35.Helmerich and Payne Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Helmerich's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Helmerich. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Helmerich can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Helmerich and Payne. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Helmerich's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Helmerich.
Helmerich Implied Volatility | 0.9 |
Helmerich's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Helmerich and Payne stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Helmerich's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Helmerich stock will not fluctuate a lot when Helmerich's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Helmerich and Payne on the next trading day is expected to be 32.11 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.65 and the sum of the absolute errors of 39.35. Helmerich after-hype prediction price | USD 32.2 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Helmerich | Build AI portfolio with Helmerich Stock |
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Helmerich contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Helmerich and Payne will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0563% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Helmerich trading at USD 32.45, that is roughly USD 0.0183 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Helmerich's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Helmerich and Payne options at the current volatility level of 0.9%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Helmerich Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Helmerich's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Helmerich's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Helmerich stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Helmerich's open interest, investors have to compare it to Helmerich's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Helmerich is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Helmerich. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Helmerich Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Helmerich price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Helmerich using various technical indicators. When you analyze Helmerich charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Helmerich Cash Forecast
Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the Helmerich's financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
Cash | First Reported 1985-09-30 | Previous Quarter 166.1 M | Current Value 224.3 M | Quarterly Volatility 217.4 M |
Helmerich Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 27th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Helmerich and Payne on the next trading day is expected to be 32.11 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.65, mean absolute percentage error of 0.65, and the sum of the absolute errors of 39.35.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Helmerich Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Helmerich's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Helmerich Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Helmerich | Helmerich Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Helmerich Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Helmerich's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Helmerich's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 29.76 and 34.46, respectively. We have considered Helmerich's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Helmerich stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Helmerich stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.6739 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.6451 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0225 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 39.3503 |
Predictive Modules for Helmerich
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Helmerich and Payne. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Helmerich After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Helmerich at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Helmerich or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Helmerich, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Helmerich Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Helmerich's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Helmerich's historical news coverage. Helmerich's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 29.85 and 34.55, respectively. We have considered Helmerich's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Helmerich is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Helmerich and Payne is based on 3 months time horizon.
Helmerich Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Helmerich is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Helmerich backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Helmerich, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.44 | 2.35 | 0.10 | 0.01 | 10 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
32.45 | 32.20 | 0.31 |
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Helmerich Hype Timeline
As of January 26, 2026 Helmerich and Payne is listed for 32.45. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.1, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. Helmerich is projected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 32.2. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decline on the next news is expected to be -0.31%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.44%. The volatility of related hype on Helmerich is about 7121.21%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 32.46. About 99.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.21. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Helmerich and Payne recorded a loss per share of 1.66. The entity last dividend was issued on the 13th of February 2026. The firm had 2:1 split on the 10th of July 2006. Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon the next projected press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Helmerich to cross-verify your projections.Helmerich Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Helmerich's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Helmerich's future price movements. Getting to know how Helmerich's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Helmerich may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| PTEN | Patterson UTI Energy | (0.04) | 9 per month | 2.47 | 0.11 | 5.89 | (4.64) | 17.67 | |
| TDW | Tidewater | 1.47 | 9 per month | 2.56 | 0.10 | 6.86 | (5.04) | 15.89 | |
| CIVI | Civitas Resources | (0.47) | 10 per month | 2.36 | (0.01) | 3.75 | (4.19) | 11.71 | |
| INSW | International Seaways | (0.43) | 10 per month | 1.42 | 0.13 | 3.52 | (2.42) | 14.71 | |
| USAC | USA Compression Partners | (0.25) | 9 per month | 1.48 | 0.05 | 3.05 | (2.58) | 10.46 | |
| BSM | Black Stone Minerals | 0.30 | 8 per month | 1.24 | 0.14 | 2.11 | (1.77) | 6.75 | |
| OII | Oceaneering International | (0.65) | 10 per month | 1.89 | 0.11 | 5.21 | (3.35) | 12.51 | |
| DNN | Denison Mines Corp | 0.13 | 7 per month | 2.90 | 0.11 | 6.47 | (5.43) | 18.32 | |
| DKL | Delek Logistics Partners | 0.28 | 11 per month | 1.30 | 0.07 | 2.18 | (1.69) | 10.05 | |
| LBRT | Liberty Oilfield Services | (0.01) | 10 per month | 3.10 | 0.12 | 5.41 | (6.06) | 18.46 |
Other Forecasting Options for Helmerich
For every potential investor in Helmerich, whether a beginner or expert, Helmerich's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Helmerich Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Helmerich. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Helmerich's price trends.Helmerich Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Helmerich stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Helmerich could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Helmerich by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Helmerich Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Helmerich stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Helmerich shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Helmerich stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Helmerich and Payne entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Helmerich Risk Indicators
The analysis of Helmerich's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Helmerich's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting helmerich stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.96 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.87 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.55 | |||
| Variance | 6.48 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.9 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.5 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.33) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Helmerich
The number of cover stories for Helmerich depends on current market conditions and Helmerich's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Helmerich is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Helmerich's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Helmerich Short Properties
Helmerich's future price predictability will typically decrease when Helmerich's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Helmerich and Payne often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Helmerich's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Helmerich's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 99.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 245.8 M |
Additional Tools for Helmerich Stock Analysis
When running Helmerich's price analysis, check to measure Helmerich's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Helmerich is operating at the current time. Most of Helmerich's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Helmerich's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Helmerich's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Helmerich to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.