HTFC Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| HTFC Stock | USD 24.95 0.01 0.04% |
HTFC Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast HTFC stock prices and determine the direction of HTFC's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of HTFC's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time, The value of RSI of HTFC's share price is at 59. This usually indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling HTFC, making its price go up or down. Momentum 59
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using HTFC hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of HTFC from the perspective of HTFC response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of HTFC on the next trading day is expected to be 24.95 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.06 and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.26. HTFC after-hype prediction price | USD 24.75 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of HTFC to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade HTFC Stock refer to our How to Trade HTFC Stock guide.HTFC Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine HTFC price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for HTFC using various technical indicators. When you analyze HTFC charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
HTFC Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 30th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of HTFC on the next trading day is expected to be 24.95 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.06, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.26.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict HTFC Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that HTFC's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
HTFC Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest HTFC | HTFC Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
HTFC Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting HTFC's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. HTFC's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 24.61 and 25.29, respectively. We have considered HTFC's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of HTFC stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent HTFC stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.013 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0553 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0022 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 3.2614 |
Predictive Modules for HTFC
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as HTFC. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.HTFC After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of HTFC at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in HTFC or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of HTFC, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
HTFC Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting HTFC's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on HTFC's historical news coverage. HTFC's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 24.41 and 25.09, respectively. We have considered HTFC's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
HTFC is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of HTFC is based on 3 months time horizon.
HTFC Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as HTFC is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading HTFC backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with HTFC, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.03 | 0.34 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 6 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 6 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
24.95 | 24.75 | 0.80 |
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HTFC Hype Timeline
HTFC is currently traded for 24.95. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. HTFC is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 24.75. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.8%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.03%. The volatility of related hype on HTFC is about 5100.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 24.95. The company last dividend was issued on the 30th of December 2025. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 6 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of HTFC to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade HTFC Stock refer to our How to Trade HTFC Stock guide.HTFC Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to HTFC's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict HTFC's future price movements. Getting to know how HTFC's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how HTFC may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| TRIN | Trinity Capital | 0.32 | 9 per month | 1.08 | 0.15 | 2.45 | (1.55) | 6.36 | |
| HQH | Tekla Healthcare Investors | (0.12) | 4 per month | 1.41 | 0.0009 | 2.64 | (1.82) | 6.53 | |
| NMFC | New Mountain Finance | (0.14) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 1.41 | (1.72) | 7.07 | |
| MFIC | MidCap Financial Investment | 0.08 | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 2.18 | (1.47) | 6.99 | |
| KBDC | Kayne Anderson BDC | 0.15 | 8 per month | 1.26 | (0.02) | 2.84 | (2.35) | 6.04 | |
| TRINZ | Trinity Capital 7875 | 0.01 | 1 per month | 0.00 | (0.26) | 0.28 | (0.16) | 1.08 | |
| TRINI | Trinity Capital 7875 | (0.03) | 1 per month | 0.09 | (0.19) | 0.40 | (0.28) | 1.32 | |
| CSWC | Capital Southwest | (0.21) | 7 per month | 0.87 | 0.13 | 2.20 | (2.02) | 6.18 | |
| GSBD | Goldman Sachs BDC | (0.12) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 1.88 | (1.93) | 4.85 |
Other Forecasting Options for HTFC
For every potential investor in HTFC, whether a beginner or expert, HTFC's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. HTFC Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in HTFC. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying HTFC's price trends.HTFC Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with HTFC stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of HTFC could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing HTFC by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
HTFC Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how HTFC stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading HTFC shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying HTFC stock market strength indicators, traders can identify HTFC entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
HTFC Risk Indicators
The analysis of HTFC's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in HTFC's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting htfc stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.2188 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.2383 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.3354 | |||
| Variance | 0.1125 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.1772 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.0568 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.25) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for HTFC
The number of cover stories for HTFC depends on current market conditions and HTFC's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that HTFC is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about HTFC's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of HTFC to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade HTFC Stock refer to our How to Trade HTFC Stock guide.You can also try the Theme Ratings module to determine theme ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis theme ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.
Will Stock sector continue expanding? Could HTFC diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of HTFC. Market participants price HTFC higher when confident in its future expansion prospects. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every HTFC data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Investors evaluate HTFC using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating HTFC's intrinsic value—the estimated true worth—helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause HTFC's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between HTFC's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if HTFC is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. Conversely, HTFC's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.