Independent Bank Stock Forward View
| IBCP Stock | USD 35.15 0.23 0.66% |
Independent Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Independent Bank's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Independent Bank's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Independent Bank fundamentals over time.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Independent Bank's stock price is slightly above 60. This usually indicates that the stock is rather overbought by investors as of today. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Independent, making its price go up or down. Momentum 60
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.023 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.8 | EPS Estimate Current Year 3.47 | EPS Estimate Next Year 3.64 | Wall Street Target Price 37.4 |
Using Independent Bank hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Independent Bank from the perspective of Independent Bank response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Independent Bank using Independent Bank's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Independent using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Independent Bank's stock price.
Independent Bank Short Interest
An investor who is long Independent Bank may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Independent Bank and may potentially protect profits, hedge Independent Bank with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 32.1185 | Short Percent 0.0108 | Short Ratio 1.34 | Shares Short Prior Month 317.7 K | 50 Day MA 33.3992 |
Independent Relative Strength Index
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Independent Bank on the next trading day is expected to be 35.30 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.51 and the sum of the absolute errors of 31.08.Independent Bank Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Independent Bank's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Independent. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Independent can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Independent Bank. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Independent Bank's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Independent Bank.
Independent Bank Implied Volatility | 1.14 |
Independent Bank's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Independent Bank stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Independent Bank's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Independent Bank stock will not fluctuate a lot when Independent Bank's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Independent Bank on the next trading day is expected to be 35.30 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.51 and the sum of the absolute errors of 31.08. Independent Bank after-hype prediction price | USD 35.51 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Independent | Build AI portfolio with Independent Stock |
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Independent contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Independent Bank will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0712% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Independent Bank trading at USD 35.15, that is roughly USD 0.025 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Independent Bank's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Independent Bank options at the current volatility level of 1.14%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Independent Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Independent Bank's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Independent Bank's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Independent Bank stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Independent Bank's open interest, investors have to compare it to Independent Bank's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Independent Bank is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Independent. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Independent Bank Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Independent price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Independent using various technical indicators. When you analyze Independent charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Independent Bank Cash Forecast
Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the Independent Bank's financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
Cash | First Reported 1989-06-30 | Previous Quarter 208.7 M | Current Value 52.2 M | Quarterly Volatility 96 M |
Independent Bank Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 2nd of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Independent Bank on the next trading day is expected to be 35.30 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.51, mean absolute percentage error of 0.38, and the sum of the absolute errors of 31.08.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Independent Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Independent Bank's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Independent Bank Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Independent Bank | Independent Bank Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Independent Bank Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Independent Bank's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Independent Bank's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 33.71 and 36.89, respectively. We have considered Independent Bank's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Independent Bank stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Independent Bank stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.1444 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.5096 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0155 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 31.0835 |
Predictive Modules for Independent Bank
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Independent Bank. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Independent Bank's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Independent Bank After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Independent Bank at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Independent Bank or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Independent Bank, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Independent Bank Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Independent Bank's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Independent Bank's historical news coverage. Independent Bank's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 33.92 and 37.10, respectively. We have considered Independent Bank's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Independent Bank is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Independent Bank is based on 3 months time horizon.
Independent Bank Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Independent Bank is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Independent Bank backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Independent Bank, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.26 | 1.59 | 0.36 | 0.07 | 6 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 6 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
35.15 | 35.51 | 1.02 |
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Independent Bank Hype Timeline
Independent Bank is currently traded for 35.15. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.36, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.07. Independent is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 35.51 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 113.57%. The price gain on the next news is projected to be 1.02%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.26%. The volatility of related hype on Independent Bank is about 552.08%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 35.22. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 315.38 M. Net Income was 66.79 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 219.52 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 6 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Independent Bank to cross-verify your projections.Independent Bank Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Independent Bank's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Independent Bank's future price movements. Getting to know how Independent Bank's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Independent Bank may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| GSBC | Great Southern Bancorp | 3.57 | 9 per month | 1.80 | 0.05 | 2.88 | (2.34) | 14.35 | |
| THFF | First Financial | 1.06 | 9 per month | 1.38 | 0.14 | 3.55 | (2.36) | 10.39 | |
| SPFI | South Plains Financial | (0.31) | 10 per month | 1.13 | 0.1 | 2.82 | (2.20) | 9.14 | |
| CAC | Camden National | (0.20) | 14 per month | 1.25 | 0.19 | 3.78 | (2.43) | 10.30 | |
| MCBS | MetroCity Bankshares | (0.04) | 5 per month | 1.45 | 0.02 | 2.87 | (2.71) | 9.78 | |
| SMBC | Southern Missouri Bancorp | (1.61) | 7 per month | 1.19 | 0.13 | 3.00 | (1.77) | 10.20 | |
| ORRF | Orrstown Financial Services | (0.20) | 18 per month | 1.31 | 0.04 | 2.73 | (2.49) | 8.73 | |
| BCAL | Southern California Bancorp | (0.07) | 9 per month | 1.21 | 0.03 | 2.16 | (1.97) | 7.03 | |
| SMBK | SmartFinancial | 0.56 | 10 per month | 1.33 | 0.10 | 2.94 | (2.13) | 8.85 | |
| CCBG | Capital City Bank | 0.12 | 8 per month | 1.90 | (0.01) | 3.11 | (3.38) | 9.74 |
Other Forecasting Options for Independent Bank
For every potential investor in Independent, whether a beginner or expert, Independent Bank's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Independent Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Independent. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Independent Bank's price trends.Independent Bank Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Independent Bank stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Independent Bank could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Independent Bank by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Independent Bank Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Independent Bank stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Independent Bank shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Independent Bank stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Independent Bank entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Independent Bank Risk Indicators
The analysis of Independent Bank's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Independent Bank's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting independent stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.2 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.17 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.63 | |||
| Variance | 2.65 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.95 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.36 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.43) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Independent Bank
The number of cover stories for Independent Bank depends on current market conditions and Independent Bank's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Independent Bank is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Independent Bank's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Independent Bank Short Properties
Independent Bank's future price predictability will typically decrease when Independent Bank's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Independent Bank often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Independent Bank's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Independent Bank's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 20.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 548.1 M |
Additional Tools for Independent Stock Analysis
When running Independent Bank's price analysis, check to measure Independent Bank's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Independent Bank is operating at the current time. Most of Independent Bank's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Independent Bank's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Independent Bank's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Independent Bank to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.