ICON PLC Stock Forecast - Simple Regression

ICLR Stock  USD 186.70  0.04  0.02%   
The Simple Regression forecasted value of ICON PLC on the next trading day is expected to be 192.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 6.47 and the sum of the absolute errors of 394.77. ICON Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although ICON PLC's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of ICON PLC's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of ICON PLC fundamentals over time.
As of today the relative strength index (rsi) of ICON PLC's share price is below 20 . This usually indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of ICON PLC's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of ICON PLC and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from ICON PLC's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with ICON PLC, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting ICON PLC's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.99)
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
3.4325
EPS Estimate Current Year
13.0768
EPS Estimate Next Year
13.2325
Wall Street Target Price
206.375
Using ICON PLC hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of ICON PLC from the perspective of ICON PLC response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards ICON PLC using ICON PLC's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards ICON using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of ICON PLC's stock price.

ICON PLC Short Interest

An investor who is long ICON PLC may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about ICON PLC and may potentially protect profits, hedge ICON PLC with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
164.5345
Short Percent
0.0348
Short Ratio
3.16
Shares Short Prior Month
2.8 M
50 Day MA
179.8136

ICON PLC Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to ICON PLC's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in ICON. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding ICON can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around ICON PLC. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.

ICON PLC Implied Volatility

    
  0.48  
ICON PLC's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of ICON PLC stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if ICON PLC's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that ICON PLC stock will not fluctuate a lot when ICON PLC's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of ICON PLC on the next trading day is expected to be 192.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 6.47 and the sum of the absolute errors of 394.77.

ICON PLC after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 187.47  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of ICON PLC to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in ICON Stock, please use our How to Invest in ICON PLC guide.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current ICON contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that ICON PLC will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.03% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With ICON PLC trading at USD 186.7, that is roughly USD 0.056 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating ICON PLC's daily price movement you should consider acquiring ICON PLC options at the current volatility level of 0.48%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.

Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 ICON Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast ICON PLC's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in ICON PLC's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for ICON PLC stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current ICON PLC's open interest, investors have to compare it to ICON PLC's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of ICON PLC is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in ICON. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.

ICON PLC Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine ICON price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for ICON using various technical indicators. When you analyze ICON charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through ICON PLC price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

ICON PLC Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 26th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of ICON PLC on the next trading day is expected to be 192.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 6.47, mean absolute percentage error of 59.75, and the sum of the absolute errors of 394.77.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict ICON Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that ICON PLC's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

ICON PLC Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest ICON PLCICON PLC Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

ICON PLC Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting ICON PLC's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. ICON PLC's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 189.40 and 194.61, respectively. We have considered ICON PLC's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
186.70
189.40
Downside
192.00
Expected Value
194.61
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of ICON PLC stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent ICON PLC stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria122.2007
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation6.4716
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0366
SAESum of the absolute errors394.7656
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as ICON PLC historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for ICON PLC

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ICON PLC. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
184.86187.47190.08
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
168.03194.88197.50
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
173.17184.87196.57
Details
17 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
187.80206.38229.08
Details

ICON PLC After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of ICON PLC at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in ICON PLC or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of ICON PLC, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

ICON PLC Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting ICON PLC's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on ICON PLC's historical news coverage. ICON PLC's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 184.86 and 190.08, respectively. We have considered ICON PLC's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
186.70
184.86
Downside
187.47
After-hype Price
190.08
Upside
ICON PLC is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of ICON PLC is based on 3 months time horizon.

ICON PLC Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as ICON PLC is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading ICON PLC backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with ICON PLC, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.07 
2.61
  0.77 
 0.00  
8 Events / Month
8 Events / Month
In about 8 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
186.70
187.47
0.41 
23.64  
Notes

ICON PLC Hype Timeline

ICON PLC is currently traded for 186.70. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.77, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. ICON is expected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 187.47 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 23.64%. The price gain on the next news is projected to be 0.41%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.07%. The volatility of related hype on ICON PLC is about 5019.23%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 186.70. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 8.28 B. Net Income was 791.47 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 2.28 B. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be in about 8 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of ICON PLC to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in ICON Stock, please use our How to Invest in ICON PLC guide.

ICON PLC Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to ICON PLC's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict ICON PLC's future price movements. Getting to know how ICON PLC's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how ICON PLC may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
EXASEXACT Sciences(0.13)10 per month 0.00  0.20  3.77 (1.06) 24.01 
GHGuardant Health(0.27)7 per month 1.59  0.18  5.53 (3.15) 33.86 
MEDPMedpace Holdings 2.13 10 per month 1.57  0.03  3.06 (2.33) 14.62 
QGENQiagen NV(0.08)12 per month 1.12  0.09  2.86 (2.44) 19.10 
UHSUniversal Health Services(5.27)9 per month 0.00 (0.05) 2.49 (2.94) 8.92 
RVTYRevvity 1.86 11 per month 1.45  0.12  4.52 (2.84) 8.40 
COOThe Cooper Companies 1.18 11 per month 1.18  0.03  2.84 (2.03) 10.26 
EHCEncompass Health Corp 0.80 10 per month 0.00 (0.31) 1.39 (2.39) 8.12 
NBIXNeurocrine Biosciences(2.08)10 per month 0.00 (0.05) 3.43 (3.45) 12.11 
SOLVSolventum Corp 2.38 11 per month 1.55  0.03  2.91 (2.08) 14.51 

Other Forecasting Options for ICON PLC

For every potential investor in ICON, whether a beginner or expert, ICON PLC's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. ICON Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in ICON. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying ICON PLC's price trends.

ICON PLC Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with ICON PLC stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of ICON PLC could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing ICON PLC by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

ICON PLC Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how ICON PLC stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading ICON PLC shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying ICON PLC stock market strength indicators, traders can identify ICON PLC entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

ICON PLC Risk Indicators

The analysis of ICON PLC's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in ICON PLC's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting icon stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for ICON PLC

The number of cover stories for ICON PLC depends on current market conditions and ICON PLC's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that ICON PLC is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about ICON PLC's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios

ICON PLC Short Properties

ICON PLC's future price predictability will typically decrease when ICON PLC's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of ICON PLC often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential ICON PLC's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. ICON PLC's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding83 M
Cash And Short Term Investments538.8 M

Additional Tools for ICON Stock Analysis

When running ICON PLC's price analysis, check to measure ICON PLC's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy ICON PLC is operating at the current time. Most of ICON PLC's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of ICON PLC's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move ICON PLC's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of ICON PLC to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.