IES Holdings Stock Forward View - Polynomial Regression
| IESC Stock | USD 380.29 94.32 19.87% |
IES Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast IES Holdings stock prices and determine the direction of IES Holdings's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of IES Holdings' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time, the value of RSI of IES Holdings' share price is approaching 43. This usually indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling IES Holdings, making its price go up or down. Momentum 43
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using IES Holdings hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of IES Holdings from the perspective of IES Holdings response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of IES Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 465.43 with a mean absolute deviation of 22.45 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1,369. IES Holdings after-hype prediction price | USD 474.61 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of IES Holdings to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade IES Stock refer to our How to Trade IES Stock guide.IES Holdings Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine IES price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for IES using various technical indicators. When you analyze IES charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
IES Holdings Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 31st of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of IES Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 465.43 with a mean absolute deviation of 22.45, mean absolute percentage error of 781.36, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1,369.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict IES Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that IES Holdings' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
IES Holdings Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest IES Holdings | IES Holdings Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
IES Holdings Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting IES Holdings' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. IES Holdings' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 461.96 and 468.91, respectively. We have considered IES Holdings' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of IES Holdings stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent IES Holdings stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 124.7715 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 22.4458 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0546 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 1369.1966 |
Predictive Modules for IES Holdings
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as IES Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of IES Holdings' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
IES Holdings After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of IES Holdings at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in IES Holdings or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of IES Holdings, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
IES Holdings Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting IES Holdings' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on IES Holdings' historical news coverage. IES Holdings' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 471.14 and 478.08, respectively. We have considered IES Holdings' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
IES Holdings is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of IES Holdings is based on 3 months time horizon.
IES Holdings Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as IES Holdings is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading IES Holdings backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with IES Holdings, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.36 | 3.47 | 0.27 | 0.20 | 12 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | In about 12 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
380.29 | 474.61 | 0.00 |
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IES Holdings Hype Timeline
IES Holdings is currently traded for 380.29. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.27, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.2. IES is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.36%. %. The volatility of related hype on IES Holdings is about 611.99%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 380.09. About 98.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company recorded earning per share (EPS) of 15.01. IES Holdings had not issued any dividends in recent years. The entity had 1000:17092 split on the 15th of May 2006. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 12 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of IES Holdings to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade IES Stock refer to our How to Trade IES Stock guide.IES Holdings Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to IES Holdings' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict IES Holdings' future price movements. Getting to know how IES Holdings' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how IES Holdings may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| PRIM | Primoris Services | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.28 | 0.03 | 5.21 | (4.72) | 14.82 | |
| DY | Dycom Industries | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.84 | 0.16 | 3.06 | (3.17) | 14.96 | |
| FLR | Fluor | (0.80) | 25 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 3.41 | (3.81) | 9.28 | |
| TTEK | Tetra Tech | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.51 | 0.10 | 3.80 | (3.21) | 21.35 | |
| AWI | Armstrong World Industries | (3.37) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 2.43 | (2.80) | 7.39 | |
| ZWS | Zurn Elkay Water | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 1.65 | (1.75) | 5.35 | |
| AAON | AAON Inc | (0.75) | 4 per month | 3.12 | (0.02) | 4.40 | (5.87) | 14.22 | |
| VMI | Valmont Industries | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.26 | 0.07 | 2.43 | (2.28) | 5.99 | |
| AGCO | AGCO Corporation | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.28 | 0.05 | 3.52 | (2.12) | 10.84 | |
| SSD | Simpson Manufacturing | (0.75) | 11 per month | 1.36 | (0) | 2.66 | (2.17) | 6.98 |
Other Forecasting Options for IES Holdings
For every potential investor in IES, whether a beginner or expert, IES Holdings' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. IES Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in IES. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying IES Holdings' price trends.IES Holdings Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with IES Holdings stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of IES Holdings could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing IES Holdings by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
IES Holdings Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how IES Holdings stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading IES Holdings shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying IES Holdings stock market strength indicators, traders can identify IES Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 0.22 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.89) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.8 | |||
| Day Median Price | 433.15 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 415.53 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 105.71 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (100.01) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (94.32) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 43.23 |
IES Holdings Risk Indicators
The analysis of IES Holdings' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in IES Holdings' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ies stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.66 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.18 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.47 | |||
| Variance | 12.07 | |||
| Downside Variance | 11.63 | |||
| Semi Variance | 10.14 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.06) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for IES Holdings
The number of cover stories for IES Holdings depends on current market conditions and IES Holdings' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that IES Holdings is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about IES Holdings' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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IES Holdings Short Properties
IES Holdings' future price predictability will typically decrease when IES Holdings' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of IES Holdings often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential IES Holdings' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. IES Holdings' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 20.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 231.8 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of IES Holdings to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade IES Stock refer to our How to Trade IES Stock guide.You can also try the Alpha Finder module to use alpha and beta coefficients to find investment opportunities after accounting for the risk.
Will Stock sector continue expanding? Could IES diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of IES Holdings. Market participants price IES higher when confident in its future expansion prospects. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every IES Holdings data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Investors evaluate IES Holdings using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating IES Holdings' intrinsic value—the estimated true worth—helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause IES Holdings' market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between IES Holdings' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if IES Holdings is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. Conversely, IES Holdings' market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.