Itau Fundo Fund Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average

IFRI11 Fund   95.91  1.42  1.46%   
The 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Itau Fundo De on the next trading day is expected to be 96.41 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.94 and the sum of the absolute errors of 53.83. Investors can use prediction functions to forecast Itau Fundo's fund prices and determine the direction of Itau Fundo De's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, exclusively looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading.
  
A four-period moving average forecast model for Itau Fundo De is based on an artificially constructed daily price series in which the value for a given day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for four preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited to forecast equities with high volatility.

Itau Fundo 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 29th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Itau Fundo De on the next trading day is expected to be 96.41 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.94, mean absolute percentage error of 1.37, and the sum of the absolute errors of 53.83.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Itau Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Itau Fundo's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Itau Fundo Fund Forecast Pattern

Itau Fundo Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Itau Fundo's Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Itau Fundo's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 95.65 and 97.18, respectively. We have considered Itau Fundo's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
95.91
96.41
Expected Value
97.18
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Itau Fundo fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Itau Fundo fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria111.0717
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.242
MADMean absolute deviation0.9444
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0095
SAESum of the absolute errors53.8325
The four period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and troughs in a set of daily price observations of Itau Fundo. However, it also has several disadvantages. In particular this model does not produce an actual prediction equation for Itau Fundo De and therefore, it cannot be a useful forecasting tool for medium or long range price predictions

Predictive Modules for Itau Fundo

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Itau Fundo De. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Other Forecasting Options for Itau Fundo

For every potential investor in Itau, whether a beginner or expert, Itau Fundo's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Itau Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Itau. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Itau Fundo's price trends.

Itau Fundo Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Itau Fundo fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Itau Fundo could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Itau Fundo by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Itau Fundo De Technical and Predictive Analytics

The fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Itau Fundo's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Itau Fundo's current price.

Itau Fundo Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Itau Fundo fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Itau Fundo shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Itau Fundo fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Itau Fundo De entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Itau Fundo Risk Indicators

The analysis of Itau Fundo's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Itau Fundo's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting itau fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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