ChipMOS Technologies Stock Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing

Key Indicators . Triple Exponential Smoothing . Stocks . USA . 
Stock . ChipMOS Technologies
IMOS Stock  USD 45.61  -0.16  -0.35%   
The Triple Exponential Smoothing output for ChipMOS Technologies is derived from daily price data across the evaluation window. The error pattern reveals whether the model tracked prices consistently or diverged during volatile sessions. Parameters are re-estimated as new trading sessions are recorded, keeping the forecast current. Lower MAD and MAPE values indicate a tighter fit to recent price behavior. The Triple Exponential Smoothing model projects ChipMOS Technologies at 45.76 for the next trading day, above the most recent closing price. ChipMOS Technologies's Triple Exponential Smoothing forecast is intended for short-term analytical reference.
Triple exponential smoothing (Holt-Winters method) for ChipMOS Technologies extends the double exponential model by adding a seasonality component. It simultaneously estimates the level, trend, and periodic pattern in ChipMOS Technologies price series.

Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 26th of April

Over a 90-day horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing model forecasts ChipMOS Technologies at 45.76 for the next trading day, with a mean absolute deviation of 1.55 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.04 , and sum of absolute errors of 93.10 .
This represents a tight forecast with good short-term tracking of ChipMOS Technologies' price movement. This output is intended for short-term analytical reference.

Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest ChipMOS Technologies  ChipMOS Technologies Price Prediction  Research Analysis  

Forecasted Value

The next-day forecast range for ChipMOS Technologies defines statistically derived downside and upside boundaries based on model performance. The model places downside around 41.05 and upside around 50.47 for the next session. The wide range indicates elevated uncertainty in short-term projections.
Market Value
45.61
41.05
Downside
45.76
Expected Value
50.47
Upside
Target Odds

Model Predictive Factors

The table below summarizes the Triple Exponential Smoothing model's error metrics for ChipMOS Technologies stock. Lower MAD and MAPE values indicate tighter forecast accuracy. AIC measures relative model quality — lower values indicate less information loss and a better-fitting model. A large Bias suggests systematic over- or under-prediction.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.2838
MADMean absolute deviation1.5517
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0385
SAESum of the absolute errors93.1006
This model is designed for ChipMOS Technologies price data that exhibits both a directional trend and recurring seasonal patterns. If the underlying series lacks seasonality, simpler models may produce tighter forecasts with fewer parameters. As with all exponential smoothing methods, recent observations carry the greatest weight in the forecast.

Other Forecasting Options for ChipMOS Technologies

Relative Strength Index values for ChipMOS measure the speed and magnitude of recent price changes. Recognizing these clusters in ChipMOS Technologies' returns informs position size and stop-loss calibration. Candlestick pattern analysis of ChipMOS Stock daily data reveals short-term reversal or continuation signals. Identifying these patterns in ChipMOS Stock data supports better trade timing.
Naive Prediction
Simple Exponential Smoothing
Double Exponential Smoothing
Triple Exponential Smoothing
Simple Regression
Polynomial Regression
Simple Moving Average
4 Period Moving Average
8 Period Moving Average
20 Period Moving Average

ChipMOS Technologies Related Equities

These stocks within the Information Technology space are often compared to ChipMOS Technologies by analysts and fund managers in the sector. Return on equity across these peers shows how well each firm turns capital into profit.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

ChipMOS Technologies Market Strength Events

Accumulation/Distribution and Balance of Power for ChipMOS Technologies reveal whether buying or selling pressure dominates recent sessions. Balance of Power trending positive indicates that buyers are consistently closing ChipMOS Technologies near session highs. These signals help explain whether price direction and session structure are moving together for ChipMOS Technologies. Combine market strength readings with the price and volatility measures above for a more complete analytical picture of ChipMOS Technologies.
Accumulation Distribution1955.12
Daily Balance Of Power-0.16
Rate Of Daily Change1.0
Day Median Price45.52
Day Typical Price45.55
Price Action Indicator0.015
Period Momentum Indicator-0.16
Relative Strength Index55.59

ChipMOS Technologies Risk Indicators

Risk indicator analysis for ChipMOS Technologies quantifies how much price variability the stock has exhibited over the measurement window. Downside variance exceeding total variance indicates that negative moves in ChipMOS Technologies have been larger or more frequent than positive ones. Mean deviation provides a more intuitive measure of typical price fluctuation than variance because it stays in the same units as ChipMOS Technologies' price. Elevated expected shortfall for ChipMOS Technologies suggests that tail-risk hedging may be more important than average-case optimization.
Mean Deviation3.28
Semi Deviation4.22
Standard Deviation4.61
Variance21.24
Downside Variance19.29
Semi Variance17.83
Expected Short fall-3.39
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

ChipMOS Technologies Short Properties

Short sentiment tied to ChipMOS Technologies matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. This is applicable when the question is whether bearish pressure is starting to shape the market's reaction function.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding35.4 M
Cash And Short Term Investments14.9 B
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