Ingram Micro Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| INGM Stock | 21.28 0.04 0.19% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Ingram Micro Holding on the next trading day is expected to be 22.53 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.39 and the sum of the absolute errors of 23.82. Ingram Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Ingram Micro's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Ingram Micro's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Ingram Micro fundamentals over time.
As of now the relative strength index (rsi) of Ingram Micro's share price is below 20 . This usually indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.214 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.8905 | EPS Estimate Current Year 2.8432 | EPS Estimate Next Year 3.1988 | Wall Street Target Price 24.9167 |
Using Ingram Micro hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Ingram Micro Holding from the perspective of Ingram Micro response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Ingram Micro using Ingram Micro's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Ingram using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Ingram Micro's stock price.
Ingram Micro Short Interest
An investor who is long Ingram Micro may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Ingram Micro and may potentially protect profits, hedge Ingram Micro with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 20.2952 | Short Percent 0.1215 | Short Ratio 7.13 | Shares Short Prior Month 2.3 M | 50 Day MA 21.4536 |
Ingram Micro Holding Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Ingram Micro's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Ingram. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Ingram can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Ingram Micro Holding. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Ingram Micro Implied Volatility | 0.71 |
Ingram Micro's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Ingram Micro Holding stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Ingram Micro's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Ingram Micro stock will not fluctuate a lot when Ingram Micro's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Ingram Micro Holding on the next trading day is expected to be 22.53 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.39 and the sum of the absolute errors of 23.82. Ingram Micro after-hype prediction price | USD 21.27 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ingram Micro to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Ingram contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Ingram Micro Holding will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0444% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Ingram Micro trading at USD 21.28, that is roughly USD 0.009443 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Ingram Micro's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Ingram Micro Holding options at the current volatility level of 0.71%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Ingram Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Ingram Micro's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Ingram Micro's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Ingram Micro stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Ingram Micro's open interest, investors have to compare it to Ingram Micro's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Ingram Micro is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Ingram. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Ingram Micro Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Ingram price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Ingram using various technical indicators. When you analyze Ingram charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Ingram Micro Cash Forecast
Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the Ingram Micro's financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
Cash | First Reported 2013-12-31 | Previous Quarter 856.7 M | Current Value 802.6 M | Quarterly Volatility 294.6 M |
Ingram Micro Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Ingram Micro Holding on the next trading day is expected to be 22.53 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.39, mean absolute percentage error of 0.24, and the sum of the absolute errors of 23.82.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Ingram Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Ingram Micro's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Ingram Micro Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Ingram Micro | Ingram Micro Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Ingram Micro Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Ingram Micro's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Ingram Micro's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 20.51 and 24.54, respectively. We have considered Ingram Micro's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Ingram Micro stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Ingram Micro stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.6971 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3905 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0182 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 23.8221 |
Predictive Modules for Ingram Micro
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ingram Micro Holding. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Ingram Micro After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Ingram Micro at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Ingram Micro or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Ingram Micro, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Ingram Micro Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Ingram Micro's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Ingram Micro's historical news coverage. Ingram Micro's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 19.25 and 23.29, respectively. We have considered Ingram Micro's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Ingram Micro is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Ingram Micro Holding is based on 3 months time horizon.
Ingram Micro Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Ingram Micro is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Ingram Micro backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Ingram Micro, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.04 | 2.02 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 10 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
21.28 | 21.27 | 0.05 |
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Ingram Micro Hype Timeline
Ingram Micro Holding is currently traded for 21.28. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. Ingram is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 21.27. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.05%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.04%. The volatility of related hype on Ingram Micro is about 795.28%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 21.29. About 99.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.22. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Ingram Micro Holding last dividend was issued on the 10th of November 2025. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ingram Micro to cross-verify your projections.Ingram Micro Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Ingram Micro's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Ingram Micro's future price movements. Getting to know how Ingram Micro's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Ingram Micro may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| DLB | Dolby Laboratories | (0.25) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.21) | 1.28 | (1.80) | 4.81 | |
| WEX | Wex Inc | (0.48) | 13 per month | 1.62 | 0.01 | 3.31 | (2.82) | 8.14 | |
| EXLS | ExlService Holdings | (0.05) | 12 per month | 1.65 | (0) | 1.94 | (2.64) | 8.81 | |
| SAIC | Science Applications International | 5.20 | 8 per month | 1.70 | 0.04 | 3.42 | (2.45) | 20.14 | |
| VNT | Vontier Corp | (0.70) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 1.80 | (2.57) | 12.73 | |
| ARW | Arrow Electronics | (2.63) | 12 per month | 1.70 | (0.06) | 2.60 | (2.50) | 8.90 | |
| G | Genpact Limited | 1.07 | 13 per month | 1.11 | 0.07 | 2.16 | (2.53) | 18.47 | |
| KD | Kyndryl Holdings | 0.26 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 2.99 | (4.59) | 10.26 | |
| CWAN | Clearwater Analytics Holdings | 0.01 | 12 per month | 1.99 | 0.14 | 5.40 | (3.95) | 14.20 | |
| PSFE | Paysafe | 0.11 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 4.29 | (5.16) | 31.41 |
Other Forecasting Options for Ingram Micro
For every potential investor in Ingram, whether a beginner or expert, Ingram Micro's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Ingram Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Ingram. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Ingram Micro's price trends.Ingram Micro Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Ingram Micro stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Ingram Micro could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Ingram Micro by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Ingram Micro Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Ingram Micro stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Ingram Micro shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Ingram Micro stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Ingram Micro Holding entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 21.28 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 21.28 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.02) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.04) |
Ingram Micro Risk Indicators
The analysis of Ingram Micro's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Ingram Micro's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ingram stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.52 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.97 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.03 | |||
| Variance | 4.14 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.03 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.9 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.63) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Ingram Micro
The number of cover stories for Ingram Micro depends on current market conditions and Ingram Micro's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Ingram Micro is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Ingram Micro's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Ingram Micro Short Properties
Ingram Micro's future price predictability will typically decrease when Ingram Micro's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Ingram Micro Holding often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Ingram Micro's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Ingram Micro's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 224.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 918.4 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ingram Micro to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Stock Screener module to find equities using a custom stock filter or screen asymmetry in trading patterns, price, volume, or investment outlook..
Is Electronic Equipment, Instruments & Components space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Ingram Micro. If investors know Ingram will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Ingram Micro listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.214 | Dividend Share 0.228 | Earnings Share 1.29 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.072 |
The market value of Ingram Micro Holding is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Ingram that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Ingram Micro's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Ingram Micro's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Ingram Micro's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Ingram Micro's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Ingram Micro's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Ingram Micro is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Ingram Micro's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.