Ingredion Incorporated Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| INGR Stock | USD 116.82 0.90 0.78% |
Ingredion Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Ingredion Incorporated's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Ingredion Incorporated's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Ingredion Incorporated fundamentals over time.
As of today, The relative strength index (RSI) of Ingredion Incorporated's share price is at 59. This usually indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Ingredion Incorporated, making its price go up or down. Momentum 59
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.08) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 2.6151 | EPS Estimate Current Year 11.1896 | EPS Estimate Next Year 11.375 | Wall Street Target Price 124.3333 |
Using Ingredion Incorporated hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Ingredion Incorporated from the perspective of Ingredion Incorporated response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Ingredion Incorporated using Ingredion Incorporated's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Ingredion using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Ingredion Incorporated's stock price.
Ingredion Incorporated Short Interest
An investor who is long Ingredion Incorporated may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Ingredion Incorporated and may potentially protect profits, hedge Ingredion Incorporated with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 124.396 | Short Percent 0.0456 | Short Ratio 3.01 | Shares Short Prior Month 1.7 M | 50 Day MA 110.472 |
Ingredion Relative Strength Index
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Ingredion Incorporated on the next trading day is expected to be 117.72 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.97 and the sum of the absolute errors of 58.97.Ingredion Incorporated Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Ingredion Incorporated's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Ingredion. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Ingredion can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Ingredion Incorporated. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Ingredion Incorporated's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Ingredion Incorporated.
Ingredion Incorporated Implied Volatility | 0.4 |
Ingredion Incorporated's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Ingredion Incorporated stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Ingredion Incorporated's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Ingredion Incorporated stock will not fluctuate a lot when Ingredion Incorporated's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Ingredion Incorporated on the next trading day is expected to be 117.72 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.97 and the sum of the absolute errors of 58.97. Ingredion Incorporated after-hype prediction price | USD 116.83 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Ingredion | Build AI portfolio with Ingredion Stock |
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Ingredion contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Ingredion Incorporated will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.025% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Ingredion Incorporated trading at USD 116.82, that is roughly USD 0.0292 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Ingredion Incorporated's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Ingredion Incorporated options at the current volatility level of 0.4%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Ingredion Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Ingredion Incorporated's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Ingredion Incorporated's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Ingredion Incorporated stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Ingredion Incorporated's open interest, investors have to compare it to Ingredion Incorporated's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Ingredion Incorporated is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Ingredion. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Ingredion Incorporated Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Ingredion price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Ingredion using various technical indicators. When you analyze Ingredion charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Ingredion Incorporated Cash Forecast
Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the Ingredion Incorporated's financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
Cash | First Reported 1997-12-31 | Previous Quarter 861 M | Current Value 915 M | Quarterly Volatility 275.5 M |
Ingredion Incorporated Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 27th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Ingredion Incorporated on the next trading day is expected to be 117.72 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.97, mean absolute percentage error of 1.70, and the sum of the absolute errors of 58.97.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Ingredion Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Ingredion Incorporated's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Ingredion Incorporated Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Ingredion Incorporated | Ingredion Incorporated Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Ingredion Incorporated Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Ingredion Incorporated's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Ingredion Incorporated's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 116.48 and 118.95, respectively. We have considered Ingredion Incorporated's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Ingredion Incorporated stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Ingredion Incorporated stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.6434 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.9667 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0088 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 58.9705 |
Predictive Modules for Ingredion Incorporated
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ingredion Incorporated. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Ingredion Incorporated After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Ingredion Incorporated at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Ingredion Incorporated or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Ingredion Incorporated, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Ingredion Incorporated Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Ingredion Incorporated's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Ingredion Incorporated's historical news coverage. Ingredion Incorporated's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 115.59 and 118.07, respectively. We have considered Ingredion Incorporated's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Ingredion Incorporated is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Ingredion Incorporated is based on 3 months time horizon.
Ingredion Incorporated Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Ingredion Incorporated is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Ingredion Incorporated backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Ingredion Incorporated, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.01 | 1.23 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 10 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
116.82 | 116.83 | 0.01 |
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Ingredion Incorporated Hype Timeline
Ingredion Incorporated is currently traded for 116.82. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Ingredion is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 116.83 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 95.35%. The price gain on the next news is projected to be 0.01%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.01%. The volatility of related hype on Ingredion Incorporated is about 740.96%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 116.82. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 7.43 B. Net Income was 647 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 1.85 B. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ingredion Incorporated to cross-verify your projections.Ingredion Incorporated Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Ingredion Incorporated's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Ingredion Incorporated's future price movements. Getting to know how Ingredion Incorporated's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Ingredion Incorporated may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CAG | ConAgra Foods | 0.49 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 2.29 | (2.53) | 7.20 | |
| CPB | Campbells Co | (0.07) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 2.28 | (3.12) | 8.15 | |
| PPC | Pilgrims Pride Corp | 1.27 | 8 per month | 1.40 | 0.07 | 3.22 | (1.79) | 8.77 | |
| POST | Post Holdings | (0.45) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 2.02 | (2.44) | 9.22 | |
| LW | Lamb Weston Holdings | 0.02 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 2.51 | (2.96) | 30.35 | |
| SFM | Sprouts Farmers Market | (2.75) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 3.16 | (3.68) | 26.63 | |
| OLLI | Ollies Bargain Outlet | (1.35) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 3.30 | (2.82) | 10.10 | |
| TAL | TAL Education Group | 0.05 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 5.32 | (2.99) | 14.18 | |
| DAR | Darling Ingredients | 0.64 | 10 per month | 1.61 | 0.16 | 4.56 | (3.21) | 17.16 | |
| SFD | Smithfield Foods Common | 0.49 | 10 per month | 1.02 | (0.01) | 2.15 | (1.60) | 8.32 |
Other Forecasting Options for Ingredion Incorporated
For every potential investor in Ingredion, whether a beginner or expert, Ingredion Incorporated's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Ingredion Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Ingredion. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Ingredion Incorporated's price trends.Ingredion Incorporated Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Ingredion Incorporated stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Ingredion Incorporated could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Ingredion Incorporated by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Ingredion Incorporated Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Ingredion Incorporated stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Ingredion Incorporated shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Ingredion Incorporated stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Ingredion Incorporated entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Ingredion Incorporated Risk Indicators
The analysis of Ingredion Incorporated's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Ingredion Incorporated's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ingredion stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.8228 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.22 | |||
| Variance | 1.48 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Ingredion Incorporated
The number of cover stories for Ingredion Incorporated depends on current market conditions and Ingredion Incorporated's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Ingredion Incorporated is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Ingredion Incorporated's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Ingredion Incorporated Short Properties
Ingredion Incorporated's future price predictability will typically decrease when Ingredion Incorporated's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Ingredion Incorporated often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Ingredion Incorporated's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Ingredion Incorporated's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 66.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1 B |
Additional Tools for Ingredion Stock Analysis
When running Ingredion Incorporated's price analysis, check to measure Ingredion Incorporated's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Ingredion Incorporated is operating at the current time. Most of Ingredion Incorporated's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Ingredion Incorporated's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Ingredion Incorporated's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Ingredion Incorporated to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.